Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

So isn't the problem for March that Democratic Camp/Meretz might fall under the threshold and that that might screw up the left numbers? Do you all think the Democratic Camp is going to survive or not?

They will probably survive, but the risk of not passing the threshold is real enough that a Labor-Meretz joint run is rather important. A joint run ensures that the right gets nowhere near 61 seats and it possibly even gets the left an outright majority. Some people think that those parties running separately would actually net more seats for the left, but the risk that Meretz falls below the threshold is so real that the country's future shouldn't be gambled away just because leftist politicians are being petty or risky or whatever.

I mean does there REALLY need to be like 10+ parties every election season? Could there not be like 5-6 a la Canada/Germany/Austria/France?

Joint List (Ra'am/Hadash/Ta'al/Balad) - Left wing to Far Left
Democratic Union (Labor/Gesher/Meretz/Green Party/Democrats) - Left wing to Center Left
Blue and White (Resilience/Yesh Atid/Telem) - Center
Likud-Beiteinu (Yisrael Beiteinu/Likud) - Center Right to Right Wing
Yamina (New Right/The Jewish Home/National Union) - Right Wing to Far Right
United Torah Judaism (Agudat/Degel/Shas)

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/YairNetanyahu/status/1210643795550908416

Israel’s Don Jr.

What an appalling, morally bankrupt family.

[jaymichaud]

Yair who?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yair who?

You mean Yair Netanya who?

*bad-dum-tss*

[jaymichaud]

There hasn't been a new poll in 11 days, is this weird?

[Oryxslayer]

There hasn't been a new poll in 11 days, is this weird?

Not during the holiday period. You get low response rates this time of year since everyone is with family, even if it is for non-religious reasons. It would be impossible to get a good Christian sample, and you Jewish total is probably going to require more work depending on how many really care about Hanukkah. Throw in employees using vacation time and you get a situation where pollsters/market researchers hate entering the feild in the back half of December.

[Walmart_shopper]

There hasn't been a new poll in 11 days, is this weird?

Not during the holiday period. You get low response rates this time of year since everyone is with family, even if it is for non-religious reasons. It would be impossible to get a good Christian sample, and you Jewish total is probably going to require more work depending on how many really care about Hanukkah. Throw in employees using vacation time and you get a situation where pollsters/market researchers hate entering the feild in the back half of December.

To be fair, the five Christian responses are not likely to swing any poll, but it's nice in a gingerbread-and-hot-cocoa-decking-the-halls kind of holiday way to hear you ascribe to us such significance. The incarnation is, somehow, still a kind of below-the-fold news item in Israel, despite it happening like 40 minutes from where I live and changing the whole of human history. But, alas. You're right that Jews (and Muslims, some of whom celebrate Christmas) do take time off since many schools are closed. But the poll void is still weird especially since Likud just had a major leadership election in the middle of Hanukah.

I just assumed that media outlets simply didn't have room in their budgets for pricey polling after two elections in less than a year. I wouldn't br surprised if the polling this time is not only sparse but also epicly bad.

[jaymichaud]

There hasn't been a new poll in 11 days, is this weird?

Not during the holiday period. You get low response rates this time of year since everyone is with family, even if it is for non-religious reasons. It would be impossible to get a good Christian sample, and you Jewish total is probably going to require more work depending on how many really care about Hanukkah. Throw in employees using vacation time and you get a situation where pollsters/market researchers hate entering the feild in the back half of December.

To be fair, the five Christian responses are not likely to swing any poll, but it's nice in a gingerbread-and-hot-cocoa-decking-the-halls kind of holiday way to hear you ascribe to us such significance. The incarnation is, somehow, still a kind of below-the-fold news item in Israel, despite it happening like 40 minutes from where I live and changing the whole of human history. But, alas. You're right that Jews (and Muslims, some of whom celebrate Christmas) do take time off since many schools are closed. But the poll void is still weird especially since Likud just had a major leadership election in the middle of Hanukah.

I just assumed that media outlets simply didn't have room in their budgets for pricey polling after two elections in less than a year. I wouldn't br surprised if the polling this time is not only sparse but also epicly bad.

Speak of the devil: https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2020-2019_q4/Article-3df55a9f2c25f61027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1898243326

Better start preparing for Election #4.

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu is asking for immunity from indictment which the Knesset needs to vote on. Lieberman announces he’s against and will support forming the house committee even before the next election to vote against the request. The ball is now in the speaker’s lap and he needs to approve the vote.

Bibi is desperate, delaying the trial with a heavy electoral cost

[Oryxslayer]

Netanyahu is asking for immunity from indictment which the Knesset needs to vote on. Lieberman announces he’s against and will support forming the house committee even before the next election to vote against the request. The ball is now in the speaker’s lap and he needs to approve the vote.

Bibi is desperate, delaying the trial with a heavy electoral cost

Without Leib such a bill would not have the votes and be DOA, so what's the point of pushing it now?

[jaymichaud]

According to Wikipedia the National Union are planning to run on their own, any news on this?

Good for Lieberman, by the way.

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu is asking for immunity from indictment which the Knesset needs to vote on. Lieberman announces he’s against and will support forming the house committee even before the next election to vote against the request. The ball is now in the speaker’s lap and he needs to approve the vote.

Bibi is desperate, delaying the trial with a heavy electoral cost

Without Leib such a bill would not have the votes and be DOA, so what's the point of pushing it now?

Procrastinating. The request automatically freezes the judicial processes. Deciding on the request takes time as it’s a semi judicial process with attorneys and Bibi’s attorneys will drag it out, and afterwards he can appeal before the SC who will take their time.

His plan is to delay the longest he can and especially after the elections that will both stop the process and might miraculously yield him a majority.

Desperate times...

[Hnv1]

According to Wikipedia the National Union are planning to run on their own, any news on this?

Good for Lieberman, by the way.

3 knobs with a huge ego. I guess they’ll come around soon. They won’t dare running separately

[jaymichaud]

According to Wikipedia the National Union are planning to run on their own, any news on this?

Good for Lieberman, by the way.

3 knobs with a huge ego. I guess they’ll come around soon. They won’t dare running separately

If (very big if) this is the case, the right realistically has 3 parties at risk of missing the threshold (New Right, NU and Jewish Home). The left has 2 (DU and Green Party), so they're at an advantage in this scenario.

I don't see much of an ideological difference between JH and NU anyways.

[danny]

If (very big if) this is the case, the right realistically has 3 parties at risk of missing the threshold (New Right, NU and Jewish Home). The left has 2 (DU and Green Party), so they're at an advantage in this scenario.

I don't see much of an ideological difference between JH and NU anyways.

There's no chance of NU running alone, but Smotrich is threatening to join with the New Right.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is asking for immunity from indictment which the Knesset needs to vote on. Lieberman announces he’s against and will support forming the house committee even before the next election to vote against the request. The ball is now in the speaker’s lap and he needs to approve the vote.

Bibi is desperate, delaying the trial with a heavy electoral cost

The irony is that Bibi is reduced to putting his entire personal and political future in voters' hands under the assumption that those voters are more sympathetic than the entire institutional democratic apparatus he has sworn over and over again to upholf and protect. And yet it is precisely those voters who will deliver Netanyahu a withering blow that could utterly undo the right wing projects he has championed.

Thanks, Bibi.

[Walmart_shopper]

If (very big if) this is the case, the right realistically has 3 parties at risk of missing the threshold (New Right, NU and Jewish Home). The left has 2 (DU and Green Party), so they're at an advantage in this scenario.

I don't see much of an ideological difference between JH and NU anyways.

There's no chance of NU running alone, but Smotrich is threatening to join with the New Right.

True, but seeing the religious right splintering like this is delicious because it will make it even likelier that someone fails to pass the threshold. The religious Zionist parties are the biggest underperformers in the world, and the small, insular world of religious Zionism ensures that voters WILL take all of this infighting seriously, and probably seriously enough that one party at least falls short of the threshold.

[jaymichaud]

If (very big if) this is the case, the right realistically has 3 parties at risk of missing the threshold (New Right, NU and Jewish Home). The left has 2 (DU and Green Party), so they're at an advantage in this scenario.

I don't see much of an ideological difference between JH and NU anyways.

There's no chance of NU running alone, but Smotrich is threatening to join with the New Right.

True, but seeing the religious right splintering like this is delicious because it will make it even likelier that someone fails to pass the threshold. The religious Zionist parties are the biggest underperformers in the world, and the small, insular world of religious Zionism ensures that voters WILL take all of this infighting seriously, and probably seriously enough that one party at least falls short of the threshold.

Wasn't the purpose of HaYamin HeHadash to establish a right wing party that could appeal to those who didn’t want to vote for The Jewish Home because of Smotrich and co? I can see this backfiring.

[Walmart_shopper]

If (very big if) this is the case, the right realistically has 3 parties at risk of missing the threshold (New Right, NU and Jewish Home). The left has 2 (DU and Green Party), so they're at an advantage in this scenario.

I don't see much of an ideological difference between JH and NU anyways.

There's no chance of NU running alone, but Smotrich is threatening to join with the New Right.

True, but seeing the religious right splintering like this is delicious because it will make it even likelier that someone fails to pass the threshold. The religious Zionist parties are the biggest underperformers in the world, and the small, insular world of religious Zionism ensures that voters WILL take all of this infighting seriously, and probably seriously enough that one party at least falls short of the threshold.

Wasn't the purpose of HaYamin HeHadash to establish a right wing party that could appeal to those who didn’t want to vote for The Jewish Home because of Smotrich and co? I can see this backfiring.

Yes, that was the purpose, but I think that the relative failure of the New Right makes it clear that it did not succeed at all in attracting anyone beyond the hard/religious right and Shaked fanboys. Adding Smotrich to the list will simply make New Right a parallel hard right alternative to Rafi Peretz's Jewish Home-Kahanist frankenstein. One thing is clear, in March there will he absolutely not enough room for the Likud AND two hard right settler parties. I just don't know which of those two parties will lose out.

[jaymichaud]

https://twitter.com/lahavharkov/status/1212798536762433539?s=21

[America Needs R'hllor]

Channel 12:
KL 35
Likud 33
Joint List 13
YB 8
Shas 8
UTJ 8
New Right 6
Labour-Gesher 5
Meretz 4
Jewish Home-Otzma 2.6%
National Union 0.9%
Green Party 0.0% (!)

57-55-8 Gantz-Bibi-Lieberman.

They also polled a version with Shaffir rejoining the Democratic Camp and the National Union joining the JH:

KL 34
Likud 32
Joint List 13
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 7
New Right 6
Labour-Gesher 5
Jewish Home 4
Democratic Camp 4

57-56-7 Bibi-Gantz-Lieberman

Also asked about a preferred Prime Minister:
Bibi 40%
Gantz 39%

So practically a tie on that front. In the past, none of Netanyahu's challengers even came close, so this is a pretty major advancement.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Stav Shaffir needs to act fast if she wants to remain MK. She has no support alone, even from people who like her, because she has no chance. As part of the DC, she does bring a lot of voters as the factor that tips the balance and makes it more than just Meretz.

Also, a hilarious-sad piece of new:
A party lead by Yigal Amir's wife Larisa has been approved to run next election. It doesn't express any explicit support of Rabin's murder so it was approved, but it's promoting "examining past convictions and supporting retrials".

[jaymichaud]

Channel 12:
KL 35
Likud 33
Joint List 13
YB 8
Shas 8
UTJ 8
New Right 6
Labour-Gesher 5
Meretz 4
Jewish Home-Otzma 2.6%
National Union 0.9%
Green Party 0.0% (!)

57-55-8 Gantz-Bibi-Lieberman.

They also polled a version with Shaffir rejoining the Democratic Camp and the National Union joining the JH:

KL 34
Likud 32
Joint List 13
Shas 8
UTJ 7
YB 7
New Right 6
Labour-Gesher 5
Jewish Home 4
Democratic Camp 4

57-56-7 Bibi-Gantz-Lieberman

Also asked about a preferred Prime Minister:
Bibi 40%
Gantz 39%

So practically a tie on that front. In the past, none of Netanyahu's challengers even came close, so this is a pretty major advancement.

This is a very misleading question. The polls ask who’s more qualified to be PM, not who they’d prefer. I think most people will say a man who’s been in power for 10 years is more qualified than a political newcomer.

[Walmart_shopper]

Stav Shaffir needs to act fast if she wants to remain MK. She has no support alone, even from people who like her, because she has no chance. As part of the DC, she does bring a lot of voters as the factor that tips the balance and makes it more than just Meretz.

Also, a hilarious-sad piece of new:
A party lead by Yigal Amir's wife Larisa has been approved to run next election. It doesn't express any explicit support of Rabin's murder so it was approved, but it's promoting "examining past convictions and supporting retrials".

While I don't blame Shaffir for fleeing the feckless Labor Party, I find her behavior to be totally incomprehensible lately. After the left wins a majority there will be plenty of time for grandstanding and football-spiking. But if these people aren't careful they are going to let Bibi hang onto power and put a final nail in the country's coffin. I really do like her and think she could certainly build something important in politics, but that probably requires playing along with one of the parties on the left and breaking out when she has more support.

[Hnv1]

Stav Shaffir needs to act fast if she wants to remain MK. She has no support alone, even from people who like her, because she has no chance. As part of the DC, she does bring a lot of voters as the factor that tips the balance and makes it more than just Meretz.

Also, a hilarious-sad piece of new:
A party lead by Yigal Amir's wife Larisa has been approved to run next election. It doesn't express any explicit support of Rabin's murder so it was approved, but it's promoting "examining past convictions and supporting retrials".

While I don't blame Shaffir for fleeing the feckless Labor Party, I find her behavior to be totally incomprehensible lately. After the left wins a majority there will be plenty of time for grandstanding and football-spiking. But if these people aren't careful they are going to let Bibi hang onto power and put a final nail in the country's coffin. I really do like her and think she could certainly build something important in politics, but that probably requires playing along with one of the parties on the left and breaking out when she has more support.

She’s being pushed out violently by Zandberg and Freg.