Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

I know New Right winning 6 seats is a ridiculous prediction, but wtf happened to The Jewish Home?

I'm definitely seeing a Labor-DU merge on the cards too. I don't think they're at risk of missing the threshold by any means, but they're struggling a lot more than they should be.

[Hnv1]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

UTJ and Shas are losing that many seats. Junk poll

[Oryxslayer]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

UTJ and Shas are losing that many seats. Junk poll

Or they could be expecting higher turnout, which hurts the high-floor low-ceiling Haredim. But yes, not the best poll to be taken at face value.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

UTJ and Shas are losing that many seats. Junk poll

The New Right won't get six seats, either. These polls tend to get the individual party diatribution of seats wrong, but they're not bad on the blocs. The reason the left has 60 seats in thia poll is that Blue and White is leading by four mandates over a weary Likud party. And that is totally plausible given the turmoil the Likud is going through. Most polling and virtually every political observer believes that the left will finish either with the same narrow plurality they have now or even a small majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 poll:
Blue and White -37
Likud - 33
Joint List – 13
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Shas – 6
New Right – 6
Labor – 5
Democratic Camp – 5

Centre-Left-Arab: 60
Right: 52

UTJ and Shas are losing that many seats. Junk poll

Or they could be expecting higher turnout, which hurts the high-floor low-ceiling Haredim. But yes, not the best poll to be taken at face value.

It shows a net gain for the left of a mere three seats. Given Netanyahu's increasingly toxic effect on his party, a bitter leadership election, and the possibility of a Likud turnout drop, I would actually be a bit surprised if the left gains anything less than 2-3 seats in March.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1204465766453694464
Does Bibi want to lose? Bibi already has McLaughlin on board, so this would be a team of the worlds least savvy conservatives.

....I hate this

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1204465766453694464
Does Bibi want to lose? Bibi already has McLaughlin on board, so this would be a team of the worlds least savvy conservatives.

....I hate this

Obviously Bibi is going for the morally dystopian, casually racist, unpopular sith lord brand here. It only worked in America because Clinton was unbearable and a Democratic turnour drop. It won't work for Netanyahu because he is Trump and Clinton all at the same time, and Benny Gantz is a likeable and trustworthy outsider that the Likud can't figure out how to run against.

It will, however, push the worst buttons and create a very scary and potentially violent political climate. We have known for a while that Netanyahu will bring the entire country and even the Zionist enterprise down with him. That's why voters will defeat him in March, but it's not at all clear what kind of an ash heap the rest of us will be left to clean up and piece together. Gantz will need to develop a certain vehemance and passion he's been lacking because he won't succeed with what Netanyahu is leaving him unless he develops a radical instinct that isn't afraid to do bold things to rebuild Israeli democracy.

[Hnv1]

Likud leadership primaries will be held on December 26th. I’ll be in Potsdam so man the fort.

No other party will hold any primaries again as I gather. Labour are divided between running with DU and joining B&W. Peretz wants to join B&W and most of them dislike Shaffir and don’t want her through the back door. Meretz aren’t too keen on the DU and especially Yair Golan. It will be insanity if both run again separately. Anyhow no primaries are planned.

Btw fun fact: this government is so ancient Avi Gabbay was a minister in it.

[Continential]

What will happen to the Joint List? Will it stay the same or some of the radicals will split off?

[jaymichaud]

What will happen to the Joint List? Will it stay the same or some of the radicals will split off?

According to the polls their 13 seats is pretty solid, I can't see anyone splitting off.

[Famous Mortimer]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

[Intell]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Don't do that. Joint list+Meretz separately should have greater number of seats than them together.

[The Mikado]

Meretz (are they still calling themselves The Democratic Camp, or are they coming to their senses and going back with the name with actual name recognition?) merging with the Joint List would be insane.

Meretz merging with Labor would actually make a fair amount of sense. What's left of the Zionist Left really isn't large enough to sustain two parties anymore.

[Intell]

https://israelpolicyforum.org/elections/

Election results by area shown in an interactive manner.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Do it, finally.

[jaymichaud]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-backs-pardon-for-netanyahu-in-exchange-for-exit-from-politics/

Lmao

[Vosem]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-backs-pardon-for-netanyahu-in-exchange-for-exit-from-politics/

Lmao

If this would be enforceable, it seems like a good solution.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-backs-pardon-for-netanyahu-in-exchange-for-exit-from-politics/

Lmao

If this would be enforceable, it seems like a good solution.

If you're into corrupt and privileged elites getting off the hook solely based on their ability to leverage their political influence, yes. If you are trying to build a democratic and hopeful country for all of its citizens, no.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

I think you're underestimating the radicalism of Meretz voters.

[Donerail]

I'd assume that Meretz may be out of money? Three elections can't be good for what was presumably a limited budget already...

[jaymichaud]

I'd assume that Meretz may be out of money? Three elections can't be good for what was presumably a limited budget already...

I mean Ehud Barak isn’t exactly in the poor house

[Hnv1]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

I think you're underestimating the radicalism of Meretz voters.

I think you overestimate

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[jaymichaud]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

I think you're underestimating the radicalism of Meretz voters.

So it would go from 13 seats refusing to be part of a coalition to... 18 seats refusing to be part of a coalition? Really don't see what this would achieve tbh.