Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[danny]

Is there a chance for Saar to break away and found his own party?

Saar has already conceded and called to support the Likud in the upcoming election.

[danny]

Final result: 72.5%-27.5%

in votes: 41,792-15,885

[jaymichaud]

Is there a chance for Saar to break away and found his own party?

He's still a conservative, ideologically he's very much at home in Likud. If he formed his own party the only difference would be the leaders.

[jaymichaud]

I was rooting for Gideon Sa'ar in the Likud leadership contest. It was mostly a protest support on my part.

I do like Sa'ar, but he's a weak candidate and didn't run a great campaign against Bibi.

I have supported Bibi most of my life but this year that support has been tested by his erratic behavior and his corruption/ethics issues.

I reluctantly supported Likud in April's election but I supported Yamina in September's elections.

Blue and White and Yisrael Beytenu both had a chance to be reasonable in the 2nd round of coalition negotiations. They both chose to engage in stupidities instead.

Blue and White promised voters a centrist, broad tent government. Instead, they tried to force a farce minority government with a Joint List of Anti-Zionist Arab Parties (some of which were also antisemitic).

Benny Gantz also had opportunities to form a unity government with Likud had he asked President Rivlin to pardon Bibi on the condition that Bibi resign either immediately or within 1 year. Gantz, however, did not do this. Instead, he caved to the insane demands of Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party.

Instead of trying to find a way to get Bibi to exit the stage gracefully, Lapid decided to put his own ego first and worsen the polarizing divide in Israeli society and politics. We all know Bibi is tired of this situation as well, why not give him an escape route that ends the stalemate and lets the country move on? Enough is enough.

Avigidor Liberman, for his part, had a chance to move the ball on Secular-Religious politics. Israel needs a new compromise on secular-religious tensions by forging a new arrangement based on pragmatism and mutual respect.

Instead, Liberman, as he always has, put himself above country. He and the Haredi Parties all engaged in divisive fear campaigns against each other instead of looking for tolerable compromise.

Because of this nonsense, I am supporting Likud 100%. Bibi's far from perfect and has stained his own ability to lead but he has kept Israel safe and kept Israel strong.

I was a Yisrael Beiteinu supporter as a teen (my family are ex-USSR though my parents are both lefties), but now I support B&W for tactical reasons. I used to think Netanyahu was intelligent and such a savvy politician, idk what the hell he's become.

[Boobs]

I'm glad to see we have such a great representation of ex-USSR/Russian-speaking Jews on Atlas! Parrotguy's family is also Russian-speaking/Ex-USSR and I am a Russian-speaking Jew from one of the Sephardi ex-USSR communities.

Raises hand!

Though I’m not ethnically Russian at all, am a Russian speaker. Ashkenazi from my mom’s side. Possibly Mizrahi from my dad, possibly not.

My parents were hardline Meretz voters, in case anyone was wondering.

[jaymichaud]

I was rooting for Gideon Sa'ar in the Likud leadership contest. It was mostly a protest support on my part.

I do like Sa'ar, but he's a weak candidate and didn't run a great campaign against Bibi.

I have supported Bibi most of my life but this year that support has been tested by his erratic behavior and his corruption/ethics issues.

I reluctantly supported Likud in April's election but I supported Yamina in September's elections.

Blue and White and Yisrael Beytenu both had a chance to be reasonable in the 2nd round of coalition negotiations. They both chose to engage in stupidities instead.

Blue and White promised voters a centrist, broad tent government. Instead, they tried to force a farce minority government with a Joint List of Anti-Zionist Arab Parties (some of which were also antisemitic).

Benny Gantz also had opportunities to form a unity government with Likud had he asked President Rivlin to pardon Bibi on the condition that Bibi resign either immediately or within 1 year. Gantz, however, did not do this. Instead, he caved to the insane demands of Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party.

Instead of trying to find a way to get Bibi to exit the stage gracefully, Lapid decided to put his own ego first and worsen the polarizing divide in Israeli society and politics. We all know Bibi is tired of this situation as well, why not give him an escape route that ends the stalemate and lets the country move on? Enough is enough.

Avigidor Liberman, for his part, had a chance to move the ball on Secular-Religious politics. Israel needs a new compromise on secular-religious tensions by forging a new arrangement based on pragmatism and mutual respect.

Instead, Liberman, as he always has, put himself above country. He and the Haredi Parties all engaged in divisive fear campaigns against each other instead of looking for tolerable compromise.

Because of this nonsense, I am supporting Likud 100%. Bibi's far from perfect and has stained his own ability to lead but he has kept Israel safe and kept Israel strong.

I was a Yisrael Beiteinu supporter as a teen (my family are ex-USSR though my parents are both lefties), but now I support B&W for tactical reasons. I used to think Netanyahu was intelligent and such a savvy politician, idk what the hell he's become.

I'm glad to see we have such a great representation of ex-USSR/Russian-speaking Jews on Atlas! Parrotguy's family is also Russian-speaking/Ex-USSR and I am a Russian-speaking Jew from one of the Sephardi ex-USSR communities.

I still think Netanyahu is intelligent and savvy but power corrupts and he's been in power a very long time. He's been a great Prime Minister, but all good things become broken eventually imo.

Would you still be supporting Yisrael Beytenu if you weren't supporting B&W for tactical reasons? Also curious on yout thoughts on Bennett/Shaked/New Right?

Thanks! Personally I identify as Mizrahi. My parents are from Azerbaijan and Dagestan but left in 1994. I’ve never been and my family don’t plan to visit, for obvious reasons.

I stopped supporting YB because my ideology changed, though I still support their anti-clerical platform. As for New Right, I think their campaign was piss poor (they kept focusing on insignificant issues, who cares how many right wing judges you appointed?) and they haven’t done anything to wow me since their formation. Bennett is kind of a loser and his 15 minutes are long over. I love Caroline Glick though.

[jaymichaud]

I'm glad to see we have such a great representation of ex-USSR/Russian-speaking Jews on Atlas! Parrotguy's family is also Russian-speaking/Ex-USSR and I am a Russian-speaking Jew from one of the Sephardi ex-USSR communities.

Raises hand!

Though I’m not ethnically Russian at all, am a Russian speaker. Ashkenazi from my mom’s side. Possibly Mizrahi from my dad, possibly not.

My parents were hardline Meretz voters, in case anyone was wondering.

My mom likes Meretz too. She identifies as a socialist, but in practice she’s more socdem. My dad is center-left.

They draw the line at communism, but my mom drifts into USSR nostalgia here and there (“Nobody was homeless” “Everyone had a job” etc.)

[Boobs]

I'm glad to see we have such a great representation of ex-USSR/Russian-speaking Jews on Atlas! Parrotguy's family is also Russian-speaking/Ex-USSR and I am a Russian-speaking Jew from one of the Sephardi ex-USSR communities.

Raises hand!

Though I’m not ethnically Russian at all, am a Russian speaker. Ashkenazi from my mom’s side. Possibly Mizrahi from my dad, possibly not.

My parents were hardline Meretz voters, in case anyone was wondering.

My mom likes Meretz too. She identifies as a socialist, but in practice she’s more socdem. My dad is center-left.

They draw the line at communism, but my mom drifts into USSR nostalgia here and there (“Nobody was homeless” “Everyone had a job” etc.)

My parents absolutely loathe the USSR (and constantly remind me how lucky we are to be Jews so that we could leave to Israel rather than stay in our SSR) but also felt like they were cheated by the Kibbutzim they lived on. Interesting story. 

And mom at least supported Meretz primarily off social issues (radical feminist).

[America Needs R'hllor]

Instead of trying to find a way to get Bibi to exit the stage gracefully, Lapid decided to put his own ego first and worsen the polarizing divide in Israeli society and politics. We all know Bibi is tired of this situation as well, why not give him an escape route that ends the stalemate and lets the country move on? Enough is enough.

It's not really true, though. The only conclusion one could get from Bibi's behavior in recent years is that his only desire is to cling to power. He's not in it for Israel, he's in it for himself. He's not tired of this situation of an electoral lock because this situation is beneficial to him- it keeps him out of jail for now. I don't really get the focus on Lapid, the only thing he's done is stop the insane and cynical plots Netanyahu was trying.

When people blame B&W for the third election I just present one question- in what bizarre world is it fair that the party gaining more seats and votes would be second in the rotation agreement? And in what even more bizarre world would it be fair for them to be forced to sit with ultra-religious, racist parties that go against every value of 99% of their voters? Netanyahu's demands were clear- he wanted to be first in rotation (even if for a year) and the only reason for that is his legal issues; and he was insisting to bring in the Haredi parties and Yamina. A vote for Netanyahu is a vote for Smotrich, Peretz and Ben Gvir.

Lastly- I do agree that Lieberman doesn't care about the country. He's one of the most cynical politicians in the country, and possibly the second most divisive after Netanyahu. Basically his entire political existence is centered around hating Arabs and hating Haredim. And of course, Bibi is not a partner for any honest negotiation. That's why the only positive solution I see at this point is that the center-left-Arab bloc get 61 seats. In this past year, under Ayman Odeh's leadership, the Joint List (barring Balad) proved that it's a willing partner for peace, so I'd welcome their support from outside to a center-left government. After Likud get rid of Bibi and get their house in order, a unity government can be formed safely.

I don't know who I'll vote for, though- the Israeli left is an absolute mess, but it still represents me better than B&W ever could.

[jaymichaud]

I was rooting for Gideon Sa'ar in the Likud leadership contest. It was mostly a protest support on my part.

I do like Sa'ar, but he's a weak candidate and didn't run a great campaign against Bibi.

I have supported Bibi most of my life but this year that support has been tested by his erratic behavior and his corruption/ethics issues.

I reluctantly supported Likud in April's election but I supported Yamina in September's elections.

Blue and White and Yisrael Beytenu both had a chance to be reasonable in the 2nd round of coalition negotiations. They both chose to engage in stupidities instead.

Blue and White promised voters a centrist, broad tent government. Instead, they tried to force a farce minority government with a Joint List of Anti-Zionist Arab Parties (some of which were also antisemitic).

Benny Gantz also had opportunities to form a unity government with Likud had he asked President Rivlin to pardon Bibi on the condition that Bibi resign either immediately or within 1 year. Gantz, however, did not do this. Instead, he caved to the insane demands of Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party.

Instead of trying to find a way to get Bibi to exit the stage gracefully, Lapid decided to put his own ego first and worsen the polarizing divide in Israeli society and politics. We all know Bibi is tired of this situation as well, why not give him an escape route that ends the stalemate and lets the country move on? Enough is enough.

Avigidor Liberman, for his part, had a chance to move the ball on Secular-Religious politics. Israel needs a new compromise on secular-religious tensions by forging a new arrangement based on pragmatism and mutual respect.

Instead, Liberman, as he always has, put himself above country. He and the Haredi Parties all engaged in divisive fear campaigns against each other instead of looking for tolerable compromise.

Because of this nonsense, I am supporting Likud 100%. Bibi's far from perfect and has stained his own ability to lead but he has kept Israel safe and kept Israel strong.

I was a Yisrael Beiteinu supporter as a teen (my family are ex-USSR though my parents are both lefties), but now I support B&W for tactical reasons. I used to think Netanyahu was intelligent and such a savvy politician, idk what the hell he's become.

I'm glad to see we have such a great representation of ex-USSR/Russian-speaking Jews on Atlas! Parrotguy's family is also Russian-speaking/Ex-USSR and I am a Russian-speaking Jew from one of the Sephardi ex-USSR communities.

I still think Netanyahu is intelligent and savvy but power corrupts and he's been in power a very long time. He's been a great Prime Minister, but all good things become broken eventually imo.

Would you still be supporting Yisrael Beytenu if you weren't supporting B&W for tactical reasons? Also curious on yout thoughts on Bennett/Shaked/New Right?

Thanks! Personally I identify as Mizrahi. My parents are from Dagestan but left in 1994. I’ve never been and my family don’t plan to visit, for obvious reasons.

I stopped supporting YB because my ideology changed, though I still support their anti-clerical platform. As for New Right, I think their campaign was piss poor (they kept focusing on insignificant issues, who cares how many right wing judges you appointed?) and they haven’t done anything to wow me since their formation. Bennett is kind of a loser and his 15 minutes are long over. I love Caroline Glick though.

My family is also from Dagestan!!! small world@

Fair points on YB and New Right, tho. I love Shaked but Bennett is the Israeli Ted Cruz (good views but unlikable).

Mountain Jews do it better 💪🏼

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fair points on YB and New Right, tho. I love Shaked but Bennett is the Israeli Ted Cruz (good views but unlikable).

As someone who's been loosely following Israeli politics since the 2013 election at least, watching the transformation of Bennett's public perception has actually been fascinating (if sad).

Many people may not remember, but he was very popular in 2013- there was a popular Facebook page making memes which were basically Chuck Norris jokes on Bennett templates (yes- he was viewed as very strong, as weird as it sounds now), and he was seen as a fresh leader and a future Prime Minister, with military background to help it. The 2013-2015 term in which he initially allied with Lapid in what was known as the "alliance of brothers", didn't particularly harm him. But the 2015 result was bad for his party- partially because he wasn't fresh anymore and because the right perceived a threat to Netanyahu with the Zionist Union, something that wasn't around in 2013. Then he grew increasingly desperate in trying to gain back support, making some populist moves like acting independently during a military operation and making it clear that he wasn't interested in his Education Ministry but instead aiming for Defence, which didn't go down well with people. Betraying religious zionism in 2019 just sealed the deal, and now he's become a joke for most people.

I'm glad to see we have such a great representation of ex-USSR/Russian-speaking Jews on Atlas! Parrotguy's family is also Russian-speaking/Ex-USSR and I am a Russian-speaking Jew from one of the Sephardi ex-USSR communities.

Raises hand!

Though I’m not ethnically Russian at all, am a Russian speaker. Ashkenazi from my mom’s side. Possibly Mizrahi from my dad, possibly not.

My parents were hardline Meretz voters, in case anyone was wondering.

Yeeee the russian speakers be here and we taking over!

My family are mostly Likudniks, Jewish Home or New Right supporters

Lol, looks like we have a majority here
My family is mixed- the overwhelming majority are extremely right wing and support Bibi or Lieberman, but my parents are the odd bird- my father has been a Labour voter ever since they did Aliyah, and only broke off this September to vote for KL (after voting Labour in April). My mother is very apolitical, but is broadly anti-Bibi and centrist. She was a pretty consistent Kadima voter and liked Livni, but then voted Lapid, then Zionist Union, and now B&W in all three rounds. I'm the oddest bird, of course, because I dared to put the letters מרצ in the ballot box, lol. My aunt was shocked to learn it and called me out for it in a family dinner but my parents defended me, which was nice.

[jaymichaud]

Fair points on YB and New Right, tho. I love Shaked but Bennett is the Israeli Ted Cruz (good views but unlikable).

As someone who's been loosely following Israeli politics since the 2013 election at least, watching the transformation of Bennett's public perception has actually been fascinating (if sad).

Many people may not remember, but he was very popular in 2013- there was a popular Facebook page making memes which were basically Chuck Norris jokes on Bennett templates (yes- he was viewed as very strong, as weird as it sounds now), and he was seen as a fresh leader and a future Prime Minister, with military background to help it. The 2013-2015 term in which he initially allied with Lapid in what was known as the "alliance of brothers", didn't particularly harm him. But the 2015 result was bad for his party- partially because he wasn't fresh anymore and because the right perceived a threat to Netanyahu with the Zionist Union, something that wasn't around in 2013. Then he grew increasingly desperate in trying to gain back support, making some populist moves like acting independently during a military operation and making it clear that he wasn't interested in his Education Ministry but instead aiming for Defence, which didn't go down well with people. Betraying religious zionism in 2019 just sealed the deal, and now he's become a joke for most people.

Do you think the same will happen with Shaked? I remember a few years ago seeing a bunch of people saying she was "the future of the Israeli right" and "poised to be the biggest Israeli woman in politics since Golda Meir" and stuff along those lines yet when she actually got the chance to lead the party she under performed massively. Her political strategy has been pretty weird too.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fair points on YB and New Right, tho. I love Shaked but Bennett is the Israeli Ted Cruz (good views but unlikable).

As someone who's been loosely following Israeli politics since the 2013 election at least, watching the transformation of Bennett's public perception has actually been fascinating (if sad).

Many people may not remember, but he was very popular in 2013- there was a popular Facebook page making memes which were basically Chuck Norris jokes on Bennett templates (yes- he was viewed as very strong, as weird as it sounds now), and he was seen as a fresh leader and a future Prime Minister, with military background to help it. The 2013-2015 term in which he initially allied with Lapid in what was known as the "alliance of brothers", didn't particularly harm him. But the 2015 result was bad for his party- partially because he wasn't fresh anymore and because the right perceived a threat to Netanyahu with the Zionist Union, something that wasn't around in 2013. Then he grew increasingly desperate in trying to gain back support, making some populist moves like acting independently during a military operation and making it clear that he wasn't interested in his Education Ministry but instead aiming for Defence, which didn't go down well with people. Betraying religious zionism in 2019 just sealed the deal, and now he's become a joke for most people.

Do you think the same will happen with Shaked? I remember a few years ago seeing a bunch of people saying she was "the future of the Israeli right" and "poised to be the biggest Israeli woman in politics since Golda Meir" and stuff along those lines yet when she actually got the chance to lead the party she under performed massively. Her political strategy has been pretty weird too.

I kinda think it's already happening, though maybe to a lesser degree.

[Hnv1]

Likud primaries results show as you can imagine overwhelming numbers for Bibi. Saar managed to win in 2 small towns, some Druze villages, and Tel Aviv (excluding southern Tel Aviv).

[DC Al Fine]

Likud primaries results show as you can imagine overwhelming numbers for Bibi. Saar managed to win in 2 small towns, some Druze villages, and Tel Aviv (excluding southern Tel Aviv).

The Michael Chong Effect

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud primaries results show as you can imagine overwhelming numbers for Bibi. Saar managed to win in 2 small towns, some Druze villages, and Tel Aviv (excluding southern Tel Aviv).

So much for the New Likudniks. I always assumed that the looming Likud civil war would leave the party in ash with more moderate leadership to clean up the mess. While a Likud civil war after March is still quite likely, I'm actually very skeptical that the party will really change, much. It has lost so much of the sane right and absorbed so much of the religious and racist right that I don't know how the party ever manages to pivot left from here. It's a weird situation in which the the Likud can't win with the Bibists but they can't win without them, either.

[The Mikado]

So isn't the problem for March that Democratic Camp/Meretz might fall under the threshold and that that might screw up the left numbers? Do you all think the Democratic Camp is going to survive or not?

[Hnv1]

Likud primaries results show as you can imagine overwhelming numbers for Bibi. Saar managed to win in 2 small towns, some Druze villages, and Tel Aviv (excluding southern Tel Aviv).

So much for the New Likudniks. I always assumed that the looming Likud civil war would leave the party in ash with more moderate leadership to clean up the mess. While a Likud civil war after March is still quite likely, I'm actually very skeptical that the party will really change, much. It has lost so much of the sane right and absorbed so much of the religious and racist right that I don't know how the party ever manages to pivot left from here. It's a weird situation in which the the Likud can't win with the Bibists but they can't win without them, either.

The New Likudniks did not endorse Saar and actually stayed home

[Hnv1]

So isn't the problem for March that Democratic Camp/Meretz might fall under the threshold and that that might screw up the left numbers? Do you all think the Democratic Camp is going to survive or not?

It’s possible, especially if Shaffir does run alone and Golan is pushed back. Meretz are trying to lure Mazen Ganaim formerly of Balad (though a moderate) and a known figure with the Arab public to run with them to attract more Arab voters

[Walmart_shopper]

So isn't the problem for March that Democratic Camp/Meretz might fall under the threshold and that that might screw up the left numbers? Do you all think the Democratic Camp is going to survive or not?

They will probably survive, but the risk of not passing the threshold is real enough that a Labor-Meretz joint run is rather important. A joint run ensures that the right gets nowhere near 61 seats and it possibly even gets the left an outright majority. Some people think that those parties running separately would actually net more seats for the left, but the risk that Meretz falls below the threshold is so real that the country's future shouldn't be gambled away just because leftist politicians are being petty or risky or whatever.

[Hnv1]

If Meretz falls beneath the threshold it can boost the right by a maximum of 2.5 seats, so unlikely it will propel the right to 61 seats. Enough with the scare tactics, it’s time for Meretz to die

[thumb21]

Likud primaries results show as you can imagine overwhelming numbers for Bibi. Saar managed to win in 2 small towns, some Druze villages, and Tel Aviv (excluding southern Tel Aviv).

Where can I access these results?

Thanks.

[Hnv1]

Likud primaries results show as you can imagine overwhelming numbers for Bibi. Saar managed to win in 2 small towns, some Druze villages, and Tel Aviv (excluding southern Tel Aviv).

Where can I access these results?

Thanks.

https://twitter.com/talshalev1/status/1210357981658959872?s=21

I doubt there’s an English version

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/YairNetanyahu/status/1210643795550908416

Israel’s Don Jr.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/YairNetanyahu/status/1210643795550908416

Israel’s Don Jr.

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