UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1469790405449424903?s=20

Goodbye.

[Blair]

After 6 years of the forever war I've forgotten how much more objectively hilarious the Tory ones are.

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1469802525113126924

[Blair]

But yes this does seem to be pushing dangerously close to the 'please sack me' button for the PM.

[BigSerg]

For some non-UK posters this is important; the 2010-2015 polling was on reflection largely junk & the polling industry introduced a number of changes (some of which still failed to translate in 2017) UK polling is still not perfect but some context.

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1469769380326252548

So? the elections are more than two years away. Calm down

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CRIME WEEK latest:

https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1469791515308396544

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh man...

[TheTide]

Leadership hopefuls are beginning to brief the press about their aspirations. Usually a sign that a leader is on borrowed time.

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1469790688514555913?s=20

Knives out

Graham Brady licking his chops and May’s champing at the bit:

It has also emerged that close allies of Theresa May may submit letters of no confidence in the prime minister if the Tories lose the North Shropshire by-election to the Liberal Democrats on Thursday.

[Blair]

For some non-UK posters this is important; the 2010-2015 polling was on reflection largely junk & the polling industry introduced a number of changes (some of which still failed to translate in 2017) UK polling is still not perfect but some context.

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1469769380326252548

So? the elections are more than two years away. Calm down

Did you not read my several posts making clear that polling is unreliable & this lead might not last?

[Geoffrey Howe]

For the amusement of all, below is the Sunday Telegraph's 1997 endorsement and accompanying article from one Dominic Lawson. They stayed very loyal - hardly a hint of dissatisfaction; it does not read like a reluctant endorsement. Who knows what they'll say next time.

The newspaper was clearly of a higher quality back then; but there was the slightly desperate ranting tone and somewhat overwrought moral anger which so characterises it today. (I can well imagine the grumpy retiree in the shires nodding along with almost indignant approval.)



_{Sourced from the Telegraph archive. I don't think there are any copyright issues, but please point out if so.}

[afleitch]

The detractors, on a number of issues on both style and policy, in retrospect weren't wrong. But what they themselves supported was far worse.

Worth noting that iirc, 2001 saw voters continue to move from Tory to Labour in response to New Labour in action, but this was cancelled out by long term Labour voters not voting.

[afleitch]

My concern today is that the COVID response, which up to now hasn't been particularly partisan in the UK will now be undermined by backbenchers. Regardless of whether Boris stays, if it results in winter chaos it screws up the whole parliamentary party; 'x voted against to get back at Boris and y was the result'.

Part of Starmers crutch so far is that due to the exceptional political situation we've been in, he didn't really have a platform.

Labour have been rising and the Tories dropping in the polls since the summer in line with things getting more... normal. But he needs to be less conciliatory in order to maintain a poll lead.

There was a stench of death 11 years into the last Tory government too. But it held on.

[CumbrianLefty]

My concern today is that the COVID response, which up to now hasn't been particularly partisan in the UK will now be undermined by backbenchers. Regardless of whether Boris stays, if it results in winter chaos it screws up the whole parliamentary party; 'x voted against to get back at Boris and y was the result'.

Part of Starmers crutch so far is that due to the exceptional political situation we've been in, he didn't really have a platform.

Labour have been rising and the Tories dropping in the polls since the summer in line with things getting more... normal. But he needs to be less conciliatory in order to maintain a poll lead.

There was a stench of death 11 years into the last Tory government too. But it held on.

Which may be a reason why Starmer's decision to back the government in the coming week's vote is smart longer term, despite the moaning from the usual suspects (on left and right)

[afleitch]

My concern today is that the COVID response, which up to now hasn't been particularly partisan in the UK will now be undermined by backbenchers. Regardless of whether Boris stays, if it results in winter chaos it screws up the whole parliamentary party; 'x voted against to get back at Boris and y was the result'.

Part of Starmers crutch so far is that due to the exceptional political situation we've been in, he didn't really have a platform.

Labour have been rising and the Tories dropping in the polls since the summer in line with things getting more... normal. But he needs to be less conciliatory in order to maintain a poll lead.

There was a stench of death 11 years into the last Tory government too. But it held on.

Which may be a reason why Starmer's decision to back the government in the coming week's vote is smart longer term, despite the moaning from the usual suspects (on left and right)

I mean the measures themselves are not far off the situation in Scotland since the summer. Why there's an existential crisis over imposing them I have no idea.

[YL]

There was a stench of death 11 years into the last Tory government too. But it held on.

Changing the leader made a big difference then.  Will it this time?

Indeed I think the opposition parties should be prepared for the possibility that a new Tory leader enjoying a honeymoon decides to go for a spring election.  I don't really expect that, but they should be ready in case.

[CumbrianLefty]

Highly unlikely *in the spring*, surely.

Johnson surely isn't going to be gone until next year for starters, despite the present excitement.

And of course he had the rationale for a snap poll in 2019 that simply doesn't exist now.

[MABA 2020]

Surely the memory of 2017 will prevent any new leader from calling a snap election, not when the tory's have a comfortable majority until 2024?

Do hope he goes in the new year though, it will be very funny if the Johnson era is shorter than the May era

[Dan the Roman]

So the worse things get for the Tories I think the stronger Liz Truss gets.

Rishi has things both for and against him

He is the most traditional Tory, but that is a bit of an issue for the "post-liberals" who care about culture war stuff, those who want to "build up" or are worried about their seats in the North etc.

Furthermore he has Cummings onside. For all Cummings supposed genius, DC has so burnt his bridges with many Tories AND voters due to Barnard castle etc, I think Rishi will have to break with Cummings very publicly lest MPs and members fear that Rishi's ascension would mark a Cummings restoration.

On a wider level, Cummings/Vote Leave's vision is very different from where I think a lot of Tories want to go for next election.

People on this thread have mocked the "Terf Island" stuff but it is powerful because it automatically divides Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Being able to ask any and every Labour and LD candidate to define "what a woman is" and have that automatically lead to infighting is a near instant-win button for the Tories, but it requires a Tory leader and campaign willing to be 100% clear themselves where they stand.

That is where Truss comes in. Yes she is a former LD and Remainer, but Truss is very Trumpy in the way that she can convince herself that things that are convenient for her to believe at any given time are true. That is very different from Boris or others who only pretend. Truss' heart is 100% in whatever she is doing at any moment even if it is different from what she was doing 10 years ago.

She has positioned herself very strongly as the candidate who will run a slash and burn, polarizing culture war campaign. If the Tories had a strong economic record, or an unacceptable Labour party, or a good covid record to run on, discomfort with that prospect might win out, but absent those running on the "you will go to jail if you object to Stonewall sending people into schools to drug your kids" is an appealing fallback insofar as Labour and the Liberal Democrats have yet to figure out a coherent response(not because it is an appealing or forceful message on its own). And Truss has positioned herself as the one Tory prospect willing to run on it.

Basically if the Tories conclude they need that sort of campaign to win, then Boris is unwilling to run it(due to Carrie) and unable, and Rishi is surrounded by people who live in crazy blogosphere land, the appeal of putting her in goes up massively. For almost exactly the same reasons Boris' appeal went from 0 in 2017 to savior in 2019.

[CumbrianLefty]

The main thing about Sunak IMO is that he is a highly orthodox economic Thatcherite who supported Osborne's austerity without complaint at the time - even though both May and Johnson have at least paid lip service to putting it in the past. A lot of people haven't noticed because of his actions during the pandemic - the point is that these were very much against his instincts, though.

And as for the previous post - are you seriously arguing that TERFism should be the centrepiece of the next Tory GE campaign? Frankly, seeing that as viable is a sign of being far too "online" if you ask me.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

SNIP

I would highly recommend the conservatives run a campaign on Trans and other social issues taking a strong conservative stance on all of them. I'm sure there's no way this can go wrong and backfire.

[beesley]

As much as I would like a snap election (being in a fortunate position than the rest of the country who might need one much more than they *want* one), I don't see the likelihood of one. The reasons to get rid of the evil one are the same as the reasons not to have one - to keep the Tories in a better position.

Anyone who has read the threads on TERFism in the UK knows that it is an issue vastly overblown (as far as public opinion is concerned, not the importance of the issue) by the media and a select few in and out of politics. Indeed the Tories have been mocked before for focusing on irrelevant issues (Theresa May's inclusion of fox hunting in 2017 was just as much ridiculed for being in the manifesto while Corbyn was talking about a range of bread and butter issues, as much as it was ridiculed for being bad policy).

[Blair]

While there's a very valid argument about Sunak and more so the tax rises & unpopular decisions he's pushed through- (I still content that a lot of this anger atm started at the budget) I think that Johnson is getting close to being reviled enough that any 'generic conservative' becomes a safer & better shot- of course neither Truss nor Patel are either of these things.

[YL]

Highly unlikely *in the spring*, surely.

Johnson surely isn't going to be gone until next year for starters, despite the present excitement.

And of course he had the rationale for a snap poll in 2019 that simply doesn't exist now.

The timescale I was thinking of involved a new leader in February.  I agree they're unlikely to call a snap election, especially with the recent memories of May's collapse in 2017, but just think the opposition parties should be prepared. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1469790688514555913?s=20

Knives out

Graham Brady licking his chops and May’s champing at the bit:

It has also emerged that close allies of Theresa May may submit letters of no confidence in the prime minister if the Tories lose the North Shropshire by-election to the Liberal Democrats on Thursday.

Honestly, good for her.

[Dan the Roman]

As much as I would like a snap election (being in a fortunate position than the rest of the country who might need one much more than they *want* one), I don't see the likelihood of one. The reasons to get rid of the evil one are the same as the reasons not to have one - to keep the Tories in a better position.

Anyone who has read the threads on TERFism in the UK knows that it is an issue vastly overblown (as far as public opinion is concerned, not the importance of the issue) by the media and a select few in and out of politics. Indeed the Tories have been mocked before for focusing on irrelevant issues (Theresa May's inclusion of fox hunting in 2017 was just as much ridiculed for being in the manifesto while Corbyn was talking about a range of bread and butter issues, as much as it was ridiculed for being bad policy).

Mostly it comes from the large number of younger gay male SPADs who surround Liz.* Sea change from even 15 months ago when the issue was kind of a joke, as were Terfs. Basically it has become part of center-right dogma that you have to oppose "cancel culture" over the last few years, and over the last 15 months, transgender issues have been framed as part of "cancel culture" on the right. You may or may not be right about the voters, but the younger SPADs care, activists increasingly do, and so does the membership. There is a reason the Daily Mail, Telegraph and Times are constantly feeding that. There is a hunger for outrage atm.


Now that said I did not suggest it would be THE ISSUE. In fact, I expect the Tories to avoid making any substantive stands on it whatsoever. The goal of culture wars is to

1. Divide your opponents
2. Control the media narrative
3. Make your opponents look extreme

Culture wars accomplish all of these and this issue, as unimportant as it may be does it.

1. What happened with the Labour conference showed that as with antisemitism it is something Starmer has been unable to resolve in a way which can satisfy everyone. Which means it is impossible in practice to safely discipline anyone. So by forcing Labour candidates to talk about it you generate stories of infighting

2. The media is Obsessed.  Big issue in 2017 was them turning on May. Same now. But if you give them a good story on this issue + Labour infighting they will go for it, which prevents them from picking up other narratives.

3. Starmer for all the crap he is getting is hard to peg as an extremist. So what you need to do is prove he is tolerating extremists and Labour hasn't changed. Everyone in this debate in the public sphere comes off poorly, which means you can provoke Labour into a fight with people who are not technically Tories, but stalking horses(ie. liberal/radical feminists) the murder-suicide takes down Starmer's new image.


Yeah real chance of it turning into a 2015 Harper style fiasco. But if you are a backbench Tory looking at every other issue - covid restrictions, spending(and cuts coming up), corruption - what else are you planning to run on? You need to make Labour scary.