2020 New York Redistricting

[Atlas Force]

They shouldn’t need to concede NY-17, it still swung left from 2016 to 2020 even with the Orthodox.

Also are they trying to nudge Ryan towards picking a rematch with Molinaro so that Skoufis can run in the 18th? Why else does this map’s 18th take in LESS of Ulster County?

[Oryxslayer]

Hochul signed a message of necessity this morning,  which is part of the justification for the Dem legislature to railroad their own map.  Never mind that the timetable was seemingly purposefully stalled for NY-03.

Also, this bill was filled:

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1762863198632391018?t=U2BlyAKckdjgL0I...

[Tekken_Guy]

They shouldn’t need to concede NY-17, it still swung left from 2016 to 2020 even with the Orthodox.

Also are they trying to nudge Ryan towards picking a rematch with Molinaro so that Skoufis can run in the 18th? Why else does this map’s 18th take in LESS of Ulster County?

The core blue towns of Ulster like Kingston and New Paltz are all in the 18th still.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/joncampbellny/status/1762862634150384054?s=46

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

[wbrocks67]

Are they going to vote on it though without seeing the Senate's map? I still can't believe that they'd let this map pass. I don't have a lot of faith in NY Dems but this really strains a lot of common sense here

[Tekken_Guy]

Are they going to vote on it though without seeing the Senate's map? I still can't believe that they'd let this map pass. I don't have a lot of faith in NY Dems but this really strains a lot of common sense here

People seem to be forget the 4-3 ruling in 2022 was for a special master and striking down the Hochulmander was 5-2. Which means the current majority is still anti-Hochulmander.

[TML]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

There are still a few states with unresolved redistricting lawsuits (e.g. UT, WI) which have the potential to net Democrats more seats (the two states I mentioned here have the potential to net them up to 3 seats combined).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Wait, so they're voting on it already without the Senate drawing up a map? Is this expected to pass?

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, so they're voting on it already without the Senate drawing up a map? Is this expected to pass?

State Senate has not returned to session yet. The House is moving first. Right now the debate is on the Venue bill.

Senate could have already OK'ed the map. Or they could have their own plans once the House acts. or they could amend the bill sent to them with their own changes and toss things back. I'm not sure if anything has come publicly from the bodies leaders or actors since passing the Venue bill.

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

There are still a few states with unresolved redistricting lawsuits (e.g. UT, WI) which have the potential to net Democrats more seats (the two states I mentioned here have the potential to net them up to 3 seats combined).

I wouldn't put much faith on UT. The expectation was the opinion was delayed for the special election, but now things are historically extremely abnormal. I suspect how they are squaring the circle is ordering changes but so late that it can't apply for 2024.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wild how people think a map that’s likely DOA in the State Senate is gonna pass

[SilverStar]

Are they going to vote on it though without seeing the Senate's map? I still can't believe that they'd let this map pass. I don't have a lot of faith in NY Dems but this really strains a lot of common sense here

People seem to be forget the 4-3 ruling in 2022 was for a special master and striking down the Hochulmander was 5-2. Which means the current majority is still anti-Hochulmander.

It was 4-3,Troutman said that Democrats broke the process but the map itself wasn't unconstitutional

[Oryxslayer]

NY Senate passed their bill and is adjourning until next week. Some Republicans voted for it.

Highly likely that means this is over.

[Vosem]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

Depends on what counts as a gain -- by notional 2022 result, Rs gained 4 seats in NC (the three obvious ones but also the new NC-1, which would've voted R in 2022 for the House but is a Clinton/Biden seat), and Democrats gained 1 seat each in AL/LA/NY (only the Syracuse seat is now notionally-D-in-2022; Santos '22 still wins the new NY-3). If 2022 was fought on 2024 lines, it would've been 223-212 Republican, so a singular extra seat.

Basically Democrats failed to cancel out the NC redistricting, although by successfully putting off a new OH map they mostly fought the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle to a draw (very tiny defeat).

[Roll Roons]

Wild how people think a map that’s likely DOA in the State Senate is gonna pass

You were saying?
https://twitter.com/joncampbellny/status/1762927705316589732?s=46

[Roll Roons]

What was even the point of this whole song and dance? It’s not like NY-03 and NY-22 were out of reach for Dems under the special master map. This whole thing was just a huge waste of time and energy.

[Tekken_Guy]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

Depends on what counts as a gain -- by notional 2022 result, Rs gained 4 seats in NC (the three obvious ones but also the new NC-1, which would've voted R in 2022 for the House but is a Clinton/Biden seat), and Democrats gained 1 seat each in AL/LA/NY (only the Syracuse seat is now notionally-D-in-2022; Santos '22 still wins the new NY-3). If 2022 was fought on 2024 lines, it would've been 223-212 Republican, so a singular extra seat.

Basically Democrats failed to cancel out the NC redistricting, although by successfully putting off a new OH map they mostly fought the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle to a draw (very tiny defeat).

I expect Dems will ultimately flip back all the Biden seats in NY aside from maybe Molinaro’s. I feel people are really overrating Lawler for 2024 and even if he does well with the Orthodox he’s not going to replicate his 2022 success in Westchester with presidential turnout.

I’ve always called Anthony D’Esposito the Republican Max Rose, well Lawler is their Anthony Brindisi.

[Oryxslayer]

What was even the point of this whole song and dance? It’s not like NY-03 and NY-22 were out of reach for Dems under the special master map. This whole thing was just a huge waste of time and energy.

That's no doubt how the semi-permeant politicians in the House and some parts of the Senate Coalition viewed things.

Like everyone watching this expected there to be some nefarious scheme and radical map shifts. Including me. But the activist groups, DC politicians, and Albany policies were seemingly on very different wavelengths. Like the only way this map doesn't get signed by Hochul is if Jefferies once again says No. And in that very unlikely scenario, we once again would see the divergences which got us here.

[Minnesota Mike]

-snip-

Anyway,  here's confirmation of the maps death if anyone still believed in it. Which reminds one to never speak with confidence about fluid situations:

Passed the commision 9-1. I know a lot of you don't want to believe it but the deal has been made and their is a 99% chance this is close to the final map (maybe minor changes within 2%).

OK I will admit I was wrong on the 2% but the final product is pretty close to the commision map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wild how people think a map that’s likely DOA in the State Senate is gonna pass

You were saying?
https://twitter.com/joncampbellny/status/1762927705316589732?s=46

Extremely surprised, but no one gets it right all the time *shrug*


Anyway, hopefully Jeffries can kill it

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/kevinfreytv/status/1762935107000611315?s=46

[GALeftist]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

[Tekken_Guy]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

Molinaro’s race is no better than a toss-up for him.

[Vosem]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

Depends on what counts as a gain -- by notional 2022 result, Rs gained 4 seats in NC (the three obvious ones but also the new NC-1, which would've voted R in 2022 for the House but is a Clinton/Biden seat), and Democrats gained 1 seat each in AL/LA/NY (only the Syracuse seat is now notionally-D-in-2022; Santos '22 still wins the new NY-3). If 2022 was fought on 2024 lines, it would've been 223-212 Republican, so a singular extra seat.

Basically Democrats failed to cancel out the NC redistricting, although by successfully putting off a new OH map they mostly fought the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle to a draw (very tiny defeat).

I expect Dems will ultimately flip back all the Biden seats in NY aside from maybe Molinaro’s. I feel people are really overrating Lawler for 2024 and even if he does well with the Orthodox he’s not going to replicate his 2022 success in Westchester with presidential turnout.

I’ve always called Anthony D’Esposito the Republican Max Rose, well Lawler is their Anthony Brindisi.

LaLota is in a Trump seat outright now, and after the Suozzi victory that leaves only 4 New York Republicans in Biden seats: Williams, Molinaro, Lawler, and D'Esposito. By likelihood of victory, I'd put Molinaro first (his seat was probably still Trump '16 and is very elastic), D'Esposito (very blue seat but he's a very good fit for it and this area is trending right), Lawler (I think doomed unless Generic R is within 10 points statewide), and then Williams (I think doomed unless Generic R is within 5 points statewide).

Honestly I think the GOP might be likelier to knock Ryan off than keep Williams.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kevinfreytv/status/1762935107000611315?s=46

Gross