2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[philly09]

Up to 53.4 Million. 38.8% of the 2016 vote. We might 40% tonight.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319797859143778304

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319792777597755392

[philly09]

Some people don't like Ralston's take.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319809635428093952

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/paulgcauchi/status/1319802594550833153

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319806258682224640

[philly09]

Nevada freakout time!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319866241247367168


But a reminder.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319820456300400640

[philly09]

Could somebody explain the "Total Vote" column in the FLA spreadsheet? For instance, Miami Date claims 488,150 votes, but if you add the 144,878 votes that the GOP has and the 220,336 votes the Democrats have so far, that only comes out to 365,214 votes. Are there 122,000votes from NPAs that aren't listed?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319873315591258112

[philly09]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

Looking better and and better for Biden.

[philly09]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCXXgbaNmys

[philly09]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

Bill Clinton won GA, but lost Florida. It can happen.

[philly09]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1320142364044906496?s=21

If this is the case then Biden is going to LOSE BOTH. Historically Florida is at least ~5% to the left of Georgia.  Florida was won by the democrats in 2008 and 2012. Georgia when that goes democratic that will be huge and Michigan 2016 like!

Obama is in Florida right now. Biden going to Georgia doesn’t mean he’s triaged on Florida good grief

Amy Klobuchar is also in Florida today. Hardly a triage.

[philly09]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

And that TR Elections account is a Pro Trump account, but not even the guy that runs it can deny the GOP is FUBAR in AZ.

[philly09]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

Certainly not for AZ or PA. Even OH's numbers are looking good.

[philly09]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

Both.

AZ and IA both look fantastic for Biden.  NC also looks very good.  TX is probably a toss-up.

Depending on your interpretation of FL numbers, Biden may be in trouble there.  I personally don't buy it, but it's something to worry about.

I would love to know how the early votes broke down in 2008 and 2012in FL.

[philly09]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

I thought in Arizona the Republicans are supposed to have the registration advantage but some  R's will vote for Biden. If there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, isn't this excellent news for Biden?

Look at the Trumpers arguing with the account, which is Pro-Trump. Biden clearly has AZ.

[philly09]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

[philly09]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

The Democrats are where the GOP was before E-Day, with 11 days left. That's a huge advantage.

[philly09]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

The Democrats are where the GOP was before E-Day, with 11 days left. That's a huge advantage.

i guess we will see what happens i'd like trump to win arizona.

The fact that neither Trump nor Pence have set foot there tells you everything you need to know about their chances.

[philly09]

In person not great for Republicans in Nevada today.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1320230048029274113?s=21

Aren't the weekends great days for the Democrats in NV?

[philly09]

In person not great for Republicans in Nevada today.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1320230048029274113?s=21

Aren't the weekends great days for the Democrats in NV?

Democrats killed it today in mail votes returned.

But that's to be expected, isn't it? I believe Ralston said that Democrats always turn out more on the weekends.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320219458254884864

So does this mean that the rest of them have been accepted and that there are very few rejections in PA?  I remember hearing people saying that as many as 200k PA ballots could get rejected due to the naked ballot issue.

I believe that the court ruling a few days ago rendered that moot.

[philly09]

Team Trump is using the YouGov numbers

https://twitter.com/KFaulders/status/1320460933911748610

https://twitter.com/kallijo68/status/1320463215306940416

[philly09]

We're up to 59 Million votes!

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1320590865450975234

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1320597497526571008

[philly09]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.