2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[philly09]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

The Democrats are where the GOP was before E-Day, with 11 days left. That's a huge advantage.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

The Democrats are where the GOP was before E-Day, with 11 days left. That's a huge advantage.

i guess we will see what happens i'd like trump to win arizona.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

[philly09]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

The Democrats are where the GOP was before E-Day, with 11 days left. That's a huge advantage.

i guess we will see what happens i'd like trump to win arizona.

The fact that neither Trump nor Pence have set foot there tells you everything you need to know about their chances.

[Non Swing Voter]

McSally is done too, don't forget.  Good riddance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

Am I correct in assuming that these figures actually refer to party registration? Rs would need a fairly significant lead here to be favored in actually winning AZ, wouldn't they?

[Gass3268]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

The Democrats are where the GOP was before E-Day, with 11 days left. That's a huge advantage.

i guess we will see what happens i'd like trump to win arizona.

The fact that neither Trump nor Pence have set foot there tells you everything you need to know about their chances.

Trump was there once last week and it looks like he’s coming back again this next week, but he’s not pounding it as much as say Florida, Wisconsin, or even Ohio.

[Gass3268]

In person not great for Republicans in Nevada today.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1320230048029274113?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

Am I correct in assuming that these figures actually refer to party registration? Rs would need a fairly significant lead here to be favored in actually winning AZ, wouldn't they?

Yes, that is correct.

[philly09]

In person not great for Republicans in Nevada today.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1320230048029274113?s=21

Aren't the weekends great days for the Democrats in NV?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

And she won 12% of the Republican vote.

[Gass3268]

In person not great for Republicans in Nevada today.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1320230048029274113?s=21

Aren't the weekends great days for the Democrats in NV?

Democrats killed it today in mail votes returned.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also doesn't AZ have a fairly significant number of registered Rs who vote D now?

I think so. Sinema was dealing with an R+6 electorate or smtg in 2018.

And she won 12% of the Republican vote.

Fun fact; that’s a higher % than Tester won

[philly09]

In person not great for Republicans in Nevada today.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1320230048029274113?s=21

Aren't the weekends great days for the Democrats in NV?

Democrats killed it today in mail votes returned.

But that's to be expected, isn't it? I believe Ralston said that Democrats always turn out more on the weekends.

[Gass3268]

In person not great for Republicans in Nevada today.

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1320230048029274113?s=21

Aren't the weekends great days for the Democrats in NV?

Democrats killed it today in mail votes returned.

But that's to be expected, isn't it? I believe Ralston said that Democrats always turn out more on the weekends.

The mail has been spotty a bit.

[xavier110]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

Oh they will close the gap. Just it will nowhere be near the 16/18 GOP leads, and 18 was still a D+4/5 win in Maricopa despite the GOP advantage. A small GOP EV lead or tie seems to comport with high single digit maricopa lead for Biden  in polls, and that would basically guarantee a Biden victory in the state

Pima County (home of Tucson) is also looking excellent for Ds

[Non Swing Voter]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

Oh they will close the gap. Just it will nowhere be near the 16/18 GOP leads, and 18 was still a D+4/5 win in Maricopa despite the GOP advantage. A small GOP EV lead or tie seems to comport with high single digit maricopa lead for Biden  in polls

Then it sounds like Trump is for sure the underdog in Arizona.

[emailking]

If AZ is blue then Biden has a 97% chance of winning the election according to 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

and click Arizona twice.

[Non Swing Voter]

If AZ is blue then Biden has a 97% chance of winning the election according to 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

and click Arizona twice.

Arizona + Michigan + Wisconsin + Nebraska 2nd safewall.

[Buzz]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

Oh they will close the gap. Just it will nowhere be near the 16/18 GOP leads, and 18 was still a D+4/5 win in Maricopa despite the GOP advantage. A small GOP EV lead or tie seems to comport with high single digit maricopa lead for Biden  in polls, and that would basically guarantee a Biden victory in the state

Pima County (home of Tucson) is also looking excellent for Ds

how much did the R's lead by? was is it similar to now having the reps behind?

[Adam Griffin]

[LimoLiberal]

Arizona is 60% Maricopa and Maricopa is one big suburb. Given everything we know about shifts in the Trump era it was going to go for Biden, people are just too afraid to definitively call it given its history.

[roxas11]

Arizona is the low-key most important state IMO.  Biden definitely looks strong there, but still too early to come out with any definitive statements.  I would give him probably a 75% chance of taking it.  It also looks like it might turn red on PredictIt here soon, so if you want to make some money, hammer it as soon as it does.

Are the people on PredictIt crazy lol
I can see why they would think trump will win FL but the Numbers coming out of AZ dont seem good for Trump or the the GOP at all....