2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1320590865450975234

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1320597497526571008

[DaleCooper]

Have the early vote totals influenced anyone's opinions on any states?

For me I think I'm more optimistic about North Carolina and Georgia.  Especially North Carolina.  We keep hearing about the urban and suburban areas experiencing epic growth there and the rural areas in population decline.  The raw numbers out of some of the democratic counties seem to be bearing that out.  If the urban and suburban areas trend left this election as they are suspected to this could be a double whammy against Republicans: higher margins + a lot more raw vote out of those counties.

Not at all, other than revealing that Texas voters know that they live in a tossup state. The GOP is going to get their vote out closer to and on E-Day, countering what Dems build up now. It'll come down to who did better during their favorable timeslots, which is only knowable after the votes are tabulated. Anything else is just tea leaves/astrology.

Of course, this is the thread with a schedule about when to gloat and worry, so I am probably not the norm.

I'm not so sure. I don't doubt that they'll get their usual turnout and easily match 2016, but if the GOP were really competent about getting their vote out, they'd be doing it now. As Ralston said a while back, a vote that's already cast is worth more than a person's intention to vote in the future. Given how crazy and uncertain these times are, waiting for the last minute absolutely will harm their turnout, even if only in a statistically negligible way or by preventing them from getting the maximum amount of votes possible.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No nothing for nearly 2 f#cking hours huh?! Is no one up at 4:01am on a monday morning?! This thread better be buzzing like crazy when Harris county does its 24 hour voting in a few days

[wbrocks67]

BTW - anyone know what's going on in Pennsylvania?  They seem to be lagging big time with reporting.  The real numbers have to be much much higher than what's currently being posted.

PA doesn't report on the weekend, it seems. So today's update should be pretty big with Fri/Sat/Sun numbers.

[wbrocks67]

Have the early vote totals influenced anyone's opinions on any states?

For me I think I'm more optimistic about North Carolina and Georgia.  Especially North Carolina.  We keep hearing about the urban and suburban areas experiencing epic growth there and the rural areas in population decline.  The raw numbers out of some of the democratic counties seem to be bearing that out.  If the urban and suburban areas trend left this election as they are suspected to this could be a double whammy against Republicans: higher margins + a lot more raw vote out of those counties.

Not at all, other than revealing that Texas voters know that they live in a tossup state. The GOP is going to get their vote out closer to and on E-Day, countering what Dems build up now. It'll come down to who did better during their favorable timeslots, which is only knowable after the votes are tabulated. Anything else is just tea leaves/astrology.

Of course, this is the thread with a schedule about when to gloat and worry, so I am probably not the norm.

I'm not so sure. I don't doubt that they'll get their usual turnout and easily match 2016, but if the GOP were really competent about getting their vote out, they'd be doing it now. As Ralston said a while back, a vote that's already cast is worth more than a person's intention to vote in the future. Given how crazy and uncertain these times are, waiting for the last minute absolutely will harm their turnout, even if only in a statistically negligible way or by preventing them from getting the maximum amount of votes possible.

Yeah, this. People can't keep saying "GOP will turn out in huge numbers on Election Day" still. We don't know if that's the case, and it remains to be seen. Plus, they could easily be cannibalizing their vote in many places with early in person. We just don't know. But people assuming that these huge amounts of GOP are going to come out on ED seems premature.

[wbrocks67]

So I understand campaigns always do this and are never going to admit things are going well b/c they don't want anyone to get complacent, but this video just comes off so f**king disingenuous lmao. we have access to the data too, and you're really going to tell me the "Early vote #s in PA" look bad when Dems are at 55% return rate vs. Reps 40% and they have a 70-20 lead in returned ballots? Really? Things can change and Reps can come out in droves, but specifically in places like PA, I'm not seeing any issues at least *so far* in the EV vote.

https://twitter.com/PadmaLakshmi/status/1320514152503402498

[n1240]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (35.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.0%)
Una 20530 (31.7%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (38.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.6%)
Una 20530 (28.2%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

Wait, how did Dems overall % lead go down when they won the day in both in person and mail?

[Tintrlvr]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (38.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.6%)
Una 20530 (28.2%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

Wait, how did Dems overall % lead go down when they won the day in both in person and mail?

They won the day’s vote by less than their previous lead.

[n1240]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (38.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.6%)
Una 20530 (28.2%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

Wait, how did Dems overall % lead go down when they won the day in both in person and mail?

Won today by 3.3% (2.2% on just in-person, I input the total in-person early percentages on accident for yesterday's in-person early, just edited my post to correct percentages).

[Tender Branson]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

[Ljube]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

I think it is more likely that Democratic Election Day turnout is being cannibalized. The Democrats have increased their raw early votes by more than the Republicans have so far.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

That’s what I suspect too. This whole notion that all these Republicans were just going to show up on Election Day never made any sense to me, Trumps base is very enthusiastic and many will vote early

[Gass3268]

Of course their is cannibalizing right now, but Democrats are also getting more non voters to the polls:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320697255993683971?s=21

[Tender Branson]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

I think it is more likely that Democratic Election Day turnout is being cannibalized. The Democrats have increased their raw early votes by more than the Republicans have so far.

Dems are just as motivated to vote as Republicans this year.

So, there won’t be many differences between them if all votes are in (even if the Dems vote earlier than the Republicans).

The big unknown are the Independents.

Trump still has a lot going for him actually. His supporters are motivated and will not sit the election out, like what happened with the far-right FPÖ here a few weeks ago in Vienna.

Republicans also registered twice as many people in swing states this year compared to Democrats, maybe indicative of higher enthusiasm on Election Day.

Trump is also an incumbent and voters often do not like to change horses in the midst of a crisis.

On the other hand, Dems have higher competence on health issues than Reps.

I think that the polls will likely be wrong again of some sorts, but Biden pulls it out.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Of course their is cannibalizing right now, but Democrats are also getting more non voters to the polls:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320697255993683971?s=21

That last line is pretty major for a state that was decided by around 90,000 votes in 2016.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

Of course their is cannibalizing right now, but Democrats are also getting more non voters to the polls:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320697255993683971?s=21

That last line is pretty major for a state that was decided by around 90,000 votes in 2016.  

Definately. I have high hopes for AZ after Sinema won more votes than Clinton in the state during an off year, and that was in an R + 6 electorate. AZ has always been mildly competative, but this is the first cycle where it's actually being treated like a swing-state, which definately could affect turnout and therefore the electorate

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

I think it is more likely that Democratic Election Day turnout is being cannibalized. The Democrats have increased their raw early votes by more than the Republicans have so far.

Trump is also an incumbent and voters often do not like to change horses in the midst of a crisis.

Yes, but we don't really have any sort of analog where the incumbent exacerbated the crisis by either ignoring or diminishing it. 

[Gass3268]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

[Malarkey Decider]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

In reading the replies, Bonier apparently gleaned this info straight from GA state (no, not Georgia State).  Not sure how reliable this is, though.  That's above my head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320544370962112512

[Malarkey Decider]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

In reading the replies, Bonier apparently gleaned this info straight from GA state (no, not Georgia State).  Not sure how reliable this is, though.  That's above my head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320544370962112512

The Georgia one could definitely be right, but Texas I don't think has info like this, so I believe that's just speculation.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

In reading the replies, Bonier apparently gleaned this info straight from GA state (no, not Georgia State).  Not sure how reliable this is, though.  That's above my head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320544370962112512

The Georgia one could definitely be right, but Texas I don't think has info like this, so I believe that's just speculation.

Oh I wasn't arguing with you -- the last month has been a spectacular learning experience for how different states handle early voting!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

In reading the replies, Bonier apparently gleaned this info straight from GA state (no, not Georgia State).  Not sure how reliable this is, though.  That's above my head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320544370962112512

The Georgia one could definitely be right, but Texas I don't think has info like this, so I believe that's just speculation.

Oh I wasn't arguing with you -- the last month has been a spectacular learning experience for how different states handle early voting!

It's been a learning experience for the states themselves.

[Malarkey Decider]

Oh I wasn't arguing with you -- the last month has been a spectacular learning experience for how different states handle early voting!

100%. I never thought that I'd be stressing more over Pennsylvania counting procedures than Pennsylvania polls.