2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[GP270watch]

Lots of new voters and infrequent voters
https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1320099542784770048

The 21% new white voters probably skew young too, so I'm not sure much of them are going for Trump.

 You can't assume that and I rather see raw numbers and other demographic info than percentages. There are a lot more white voters than all other groups. Without knowing more this could possibly be good news for Trump.

[Tintrlvr]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

Wouldn't it be simpler to just hit yourself in the head with a hammer?

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21
 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

If you want to play guessing games, buy a crystal ball and a tent. Let's keep things factual here. It doesn't matter if the guessing game turns out or not. That was my point earlier.

Also, nobody is mad, so far as I know at least.

I'm livid.

/sarcasm

[South Dakota Democrat]

Interesting, I would have thought the Indy vote was more D than that based on Sinema's overall 2% statewide win. I guess this means that that there is more crossover voting by Rs than by Ds in AZ, given the traditional R registration advantage.

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

She won 12% of Republicans.

[philly09]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1320870401531150336
https://twitter.com/718_louis/status/1320871455769452544
I was one of those 39,968 voters in Brooklyn (Kings County) today!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Weird how much Queens lags Brooklyn. Does it have something to do with larger immigrant communities in Queens?

[Non Swing Voter]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

[philly09]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.

[Non Swing Voter]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.

well yeah I mean I could have told you that based on the current turnout there:

Democrats        1,193,887   
Republicans   355,317   

[GP270watch]

Weird how much Queens lags Brooklyn. Does it have something to do with larger immigrant communities in Queens?

 Yes.

[philly09]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.

well yeah I mean I could have told you that based on the current turnout there:

Democrats        1,193,887   
Republicans   355,317   

Still, the Dems need to get to at least 2.8 Million to win. Obama got nearly 3 million votes in 2012.

[Non Swing Voter]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.

well yeah I mean I could have told you that based on the current turnout there:

Democrats        1,193,887   
Republicans   355,317   

Still, the Dems need to get to at least 2.8 Million to win. Obama got nearly 3 million votes in 2012.

right but a substantial portion of NPA's will vote for Biden as well. 

I also think those numbers are really outdated still.  PA seems to be updating it's numbers really slowly.

[philly09]

A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.

well yeah I mean I could have told you that based on the current turnout there:

Democrats        1,193,887   
Republicans   355,317   

Still, the Dems need to get to at least 2.8 Million to win. Obama got nearly 3 million votes in 2012.

right but a substantial portion of NPA's will vote for Biden as well. 

I also think those numbers are really outdated still.  PA seems to be updating it's numbers really slowly.

I meant PA.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1320745508424556546?s=20
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1320838336915902464?s=20
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1320867400179396608?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

How do pundits continue to say "early voting numbers don't matter" and "they're just cannibalizing Election Day vote" when counties that clearly favor one party are now over 100% of 2016 turnout?

[Rep Jessica]

Texas Early voting party breakdown according to MSNBC:

Democrats: 37%
Republicans: 54%
Other: 10%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Texas Early voting party breakdown according to MSNBC:

Democrats: 37%
Republicans: 54%
Other: 10%

TargetSmart crap

[ON Progressive]

Here is turnout data actually worth a damn in Texas, Derek Ryan's turnout report. He is a GOP consultant but he's reliable here.

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/c88322b1-9dfd-41f6-98d4-82de00211413/Statewide_Report_Day_13.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.9%
Last Voted in D Primary - 27.2%
GE history/no primary history - 27.7%
No voting history - 14.3%

[soundchaser]

Here is turnout data actually worth a damn in Texas, Derek Ryan's turnout report. He is a GOP consultant but he's reliable here.

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/c88322b1-9dfd-41f6-98d4-82de00211413/Statewide_Report_Day_13.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.9%
Last Voted in D Primary - 27.2%
GE history/no primary history - 27.7%
No voting history - 14.3%

That's much more interesting. Do we know what the breakdown was in 2018?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Here is turnout data actually worth a damn in Texas, Derek Ryan's turnout report. He is a GOP consultant but he's reliable here.

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/c88322b1-9dfd-41f6-98d4-82de00211413/Statewide_Report_Day_13.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.9%
Last Voted in D Primary - 27.2%
GE history/no primary history - 27.7%
No voting history - 14.3%

That's much more interesting. Do we know what the breakdown was in 2018?

2018
Last Voted in R Primary - 29.6%
Last Voted in D Primary - 26.6%
GE history/no primary history - 32.2%
No voting history - 11.6%


2016
Last Voted in R Primary - 31.1%
Last Voted in D Primary - 21.2%
GE history/no primary history - 31.1%
No voting history - 16.6%

2020-2018
Last Voted in R Primary   +1.3
Last Voted in D Primary   +0.6
GE history/no primary history   -4.5  
No voting history   +2.7

2020-2016
Last Voted in R Primary   -0.2
Last Voted in D Primary  +6.0
GE history/no primary history   -3.4
No voting history   -2.3

[soundchaser]

Hmm...seems like kind of a mixed bag, then. The 2016-2020 numbers look pretty good, but the 2018-2020 ones aren't as strong as I'd hoped.

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

[soundchaser]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

What new data, specifically? The turnout report posted above? It's not unreasonable if you think Biden is getting a number of crossover votes like O'Rourke did in 2018, as well as juicing turnout in the previously Republican suburbs.