2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

Are you just gonna ignore the 20.7% of NPA voters that don't seem to be overwhelmingly breaking to Trump this year?

No. It’s the one thing keeping me slightly optimistic but I don’t wanna just assume that they just break heavy and then get burned

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

Are you just gonna ignore the 20.7% of NPA voters that don't seem to be overwhelmingly breaking to Trump this year?

No. It’s the one thing keeping me slightly optimistic but I don’t wanna just assume that they just break heavy and then get burned

Either way, you're putting all your eggs into the "Dem ballots vs GOP ballots" basket as if those are the only votes that matter

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

But Democrats are getting their voters out at every level, including thousands who don’t regularly vote?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Relax about Florida.  There's 3 ways Biden can win (remember Clinton lost Florida by 1.2%, or 113,000 votes).

1) Increase turnout among Democrats more than the turnout increase among Republicans.

2) Win a higher % of independent voters than Clinton's 43% in 2016.

3) Win a higher % of Republican voters than Clinton's 8% in 2016.

Doomers are freaking out because, based on early returns, #1 might not happen.  But routes #2 and #3 are still wide open for Biden.

The most recent St. Pete's poll, which shows Biden winning the state 49-47, has Biden at 51.7% with independents and 13.7% with Republicans.  That's an 8-point increase with independents and a 6-point increase with Republicans.  Although the poll also gives Trump 12% of Democrats so take that with a grain of salt.

This same poll also gives Biden a 58.2% - 39.3% edge among those who already voted, while Trump has a 59.6% - 34.8% edge among those still to vote.

Sources:
2016 exit polls https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/florida/president
St. Pete's 10/22 poll http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October21_U5GHV.pdf

[roxas11]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

The Numbers look similar but here is the reality
If independent voters are breaking against Trump the comparison with 2016 is kind of pointless

[NCJeff]

I put together a target-based model of what it would take for Biden to ride democratic/NPA turnout alone to a win in NC.

Key logic in the model:
- There are two immovable camps of voters - the people who voted in 2016, which each has expanded 4% (population growth).
- Hence, because Clinton was behind 173k in the final tally in 2016, Biden must find 180k new voters in 2020 to pass Trump in the vote count.
- 60% of Biden's new voters will be registered democrats, 40% will be NPAs

So the framework of the model is:

Dem
2016 turnout:                1,872,593
w/pop growth:                1,947,497
needed new voters:             108,149
total target:                2,055,646
2020 cumulative vote so far: 1,206,995
progress to target: 58.7%

GOP
2016 turnout:                1,571,730
w/pop growth:                1,634,599
needed new voters:                   0
total target:                1,634,599
2020 cumulative vote so far:   879,222
progress to target: 53.8%

NPA
2016 turnout:                1,305,330
w/pop growth:                1,357,543
needed new voters:              72,100
total target:                1,429,643
2020 cumulative vote so far:   858,117
progress to target: 60.0%

Sources:
2016 turnout - http://dl.ncsbe.gov/ENRS/2016_11_08/voter_stats_20161108.zip
2020 cumulative vote so far - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

[Rep Jessica]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

[GeneralMacArthur]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

Blue Arizona here we come baby

[Non Swing Voter]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

The Numbers look similar but here is the reality
If independent voters are breaking against Trump the comparison with 2016 is kind of pointless

And this year a higher proportion are going to vote early, so the GOP can't expect as big a turnout on Election Day to save them. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

[philly09]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

And that TR Elections account is a Pro Trump account, but not even the guy that runs it can deny the GOP is FUBAR in AZ.

[Gass3268]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

Both, but wildly swinging between both, sometimes on a dime.

[philly09]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

Certainly not for AZ or PA. Even OH's numbers are looking good.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

Both.

AZ and IA both look fantastic for Biden.  NC also looks very good.  TX is probably a toss-up.

Depending on your interpretation of FL numbers, Biden may be in trouble there.  I personally don't buy it, but it's something to worry about.

[compucomp]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

I thought in Arizona the Republicans are supposed to have the registration advantage but some  R's will vote for Biden. If there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, isn't this excellent news for Biden?

[philly09]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

Both.

AZ and IA both look fantastic for Biden.  NC also looks very good.  TX is probably a toss-up.

Depending on your interpretation of FL numbers, Biden may be in trouble there.  I personally don't buy it, but it's something to worry about.

I would love to know how the early votes broke down in 2008 and 2012in FL.

[philly09]

So should I be worried or optimistic?

I thought in Arizona the Republicans are supposed to have the registration advantage but some  R's will vote for Biden. If there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, isn't this excellent news for Biden?

Look at the Trumpers arguing with the account, which is Pro-Trump. Biden clearly has AZ.

[ExSky]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

Blue Arizona is basically confirmed.

[UncleSam]

Trump is going to win TX / NC / FL / OH / IA and all the polling indicating otherwise was based on invalid assumptions about voter turnout or poor sampling / weighting methodologies by demographics.

AZ is the only true toss up but I expect Biden to carry it by 1-2 in the end. He will win the upper Midwest by more than that and win with 289-291 electoral votes, depending on ME2 and NE2

I’ve decided that I’m not going to be changing my prediction based on early votes since those often are misleading, and nothing I’ve seen so far deviates from what I’ve expected to happen for months now. So locking it in and we will see how it goes

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Democrats should make big gains today. If they don't then it's a bad sign for Biden.

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

[ExSky]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

Republicans don’t have nearly the voters to make this up. Arizona is gone for the GOP

[philly09]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

[republican1993]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

[Gass3268]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

Blue Arizona is basically confirmed.

Also there are a lot of registered voters in AZ that now at least lean Democratic. I remember Republicans had higher turnout in 2018, but Sinema still ended up winning the county.