2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/AZElections/status/1319757788000604160

Pretty pathetic for AZ GOP. Those counties are overwhelmingly Republican

[bradwi]

i would like to get precincts results for every state from 2016 pres election

[SaneDemocrat]

i would like to get precincts results for every state from 2016 pres election

New York Times already did this

[Roronoa D. Law]

https://twitter.com/AZElections/status/1319757788000604160

Pretty pathetic for AZ GOP. Those counties are overwhelmingly Republican

Sounds like they're underperforming in Pinal County. Might even be down in Navajo and Yuma counties.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis finishes at 399,954 total today. Oh so close to my coveted 400k! They will easily hit over 500k total over the next week, setting an all time record for raw total turnout. I think the bigger question is if they can get to 600k by the end of early voting, which would blow the doors off of all expectations. They just need to average just shy of the same 30k a day that they’ve been doing all week, but the slow weekend will probably put pressure on the week days to overcompensate.

Insane turnout. Also, Cameron and Hidalgo both increased from yesterday! 4K and 8k respectively. Both counties at about 75% of total 2016 turnout, and will likely exceed 100% by next week, which was my benchmark for Biden. EDIT: Webb also up slightly compared to yesterday, adding 2.6k and are now at a new record 34k for EV. I am hopeful they can get to at least 50k by the end of EV.

[bradwi]

i would like to get precincts results for every state from 2016 pres election

New York Times already did this

like in an excel spreadsheet

[SaneDemocrat]

i would like to get precincts results for every state from 2016 pres election

New York Times already did this

like in an excel spreadsheet

No.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html

[NOVA Green]

i would like to get precincts results for every state from 2016 pres election

New York Times already did this

Welcome to the Forum bradwi!

Here's a link to the NYT 2016 GE PRES precinct map.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html

Here is a thread which I started linking to 2018 official precinct level results by State /County, which might also help guide you to the 2016 precinct returns.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307483.msg6549215#msg6549215

Depending upon what you are looking for, many folks on here could assist for data from various States, but I would suggest posting this request on another thread.   

Precinct level data results are the equivalent of the "Crown Jewels" of election geeks, since much of the data is not only extremely difficult to obtain, but the inherently decentralized nature of American Election authorities makes it even more difficult (Especially for data-sets prior to the whole internet and County / State websites).

Election precinct maps are even greater "Rares".

I have a complete Oregon precinct data set for the 1988 US Presidential Election, which I manually transcribed from multiple visits to County Election Offices and hours and hours at the State Elections Archive building in Salem, Oregon from when I was a Teenager.

Hoping that helps and maybe if you post a thread on the 2016 board and if you are looking for anything in particular, there should be plenty of folks who can help you obtain the data you are looking for.

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1319788990162210816?s=19

Is this real? If youth turnout is sustained like this, I would assume the election is over. Are we sure this isn't fake?

[philly09]

Nevada freakout time!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319866241247367168


But a reminder.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319820456300400640

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1319788990162210816?s=19

Is this real? If youth turnout is sustained like this, I would assume the election is over. Are we sure this isn't fake?

those numbers track with the elections project numbers which come from the secretary of state's sites largely.  So yes.  But everyone's turnout is up so 18-29 year olds are still only like 10% of the vote so far.  Although, each day their share of the ballots is trending up.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1319788990162210816?s=19

Is this real? If youth turnout is sustained like this, I would assume the election is over. Are we sure this isn't fake?

those numbers track with the elections project numbers which come from the secretary of state's sites largely.  So yes.  But everyone's turnout is up so 18-29 year olds are still only like 10% of the vote so far.  Although, each day their share of the ballots is trending up.

To add to your response...

I believe this is the link to the original data source (Tufts University), so I'm pretty sure they wouldn't have published without all of the data being vetted and numbers run through official sources.

https://circle.tufts.edu/2020-election-center

[republican1993]

i'm in the 18-29 range and voted trump lol

[BudgieForce]

i'm in the 18-29 range and voted trump lol

Which is fine. But the vast majority of polls has the age range as being overwhelmingly pro-Biden.

[republican1993]

i'm in the 18-29 range and voted trump lol

Which is fine. But the vast majority of polls has the age range as being overwhelmingly pro-Biden.

my age group is mostly liberal, but def have more strong conservative voices than my parents when they were my age my age group (mid 20s) are def more conservative leaning socially liberal they might not say they are voting him which happens when i speak to a lot of people if i ask them.

[Non Swing Voter]

The early results that look the most unexpectedly promising to me continues to be North Carolina. 

First. In 2016, the electorate was 20% black.  So far it's 21% black but 9% are "multiple/other/unknown" so I'd assume some of the unknown would go into that bucket.  So I'm hopeful that black turnout will be up over 2016. 

Second. The Charlotte and Raleigh areas have some of the highest turnout so far and I'm guessing there are a lot more registered voters than 2016. 

The Biden Harris ticket seems like the perfect fit for a state like North Carolina.  They can hopefully bring together AA's and suburban voters and elevate their turnout.  Given the trends in the state that might be enough.

[Hammy]

Nevada freakout time!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319866241247367168

The fact that it doesn't include mail voting probably skews it R as Dems are more likely to use it over in-person early voting than Republicans are.

[Horus]

The early results that look the most unexpectedly promising to me continues to be North Carolina.  

First. In 2016, the electorate was 20% black.  So far it's 21% black but 9% are "multiple/other/unknown" so I'd assume some of the unknown would go into that bucket.  So I'm hopeful that black turnout will be up over 2016.  

Second. The Charlotte and Raleigh areas have some of the highest turnout so far and I'm guessing there are a lot more registered voters than 2016.  

The Biden Harris ticket seems like the perfect fit for a state like North Carolina.  They can hopefully bring together AA's and suburban voters and elevate their turnout.  Given the trends in the state that might be enough.

I know the conventional wisdom is coattails can't extend upward, but Roy Cooper is quite popular and very presidential. Perhaps he was able to  help move NC out of the "stall" it was in (many thought it would quickly follow Virginia's lead) to help continue the coast vs. flyover country maps we'll likely be seeing more of in the future?

He is not divisive in the way Evers and sometimes Whitmer can be.

[ExSky]

Travis finishes at 399,954 total today. Oh so close to my coveted 400k! They will easily hit over 500k total over the next week, setting an all time record for raw total turnout. I think the bigger question is if they can get to 600k by the end of early voting, which would blow the doors off of all expectations. They just need to average just shy of the same 30k a day that they’ve been doing all week, but the slow weekend will probably put pressure on the week days to overcompensate.

Insane turnout. Also, Cameron and Hidalgo both increased from yesterday! 4K and 8k respectively. Both counties at about 75% of total 2016 turnout, and will likely exceed 100% by next week, which was my benchmark for Biden. EDIT: Webb also up slightly compared to yesterday, adding 2.6k and are now at a new record 34k for EV. I am hopeful they can get to at least 50k by the end of EV.

If even 600k happens for total turnout, Biden could net 300k in Travis. He’s probably going to net 300k in Harris. that cuts Down a majority of Cruz’s margin over Beto.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/23/20 AM UPDATE (Day 5 of Full Reports)

915,477 Ballots Received:    (45.7% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +8.9% Daily Jump 
                                          (31.0% of 2020 TOTAL RV)         

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

So... let's roll the numbers.

10/23/20 AM Update: Cumulative Raw Total Vote in OR by Partisan Registration



10/23/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative Vote by Partisan Registration %:



Of the 915,477 ballots received (50% DEM- 25% PUB- 25+% Misc) vs RV (36% DEM- 26% PUB- 39% Misc). !!!

Total % of Votes Received by Political Party Registration:



Now Here is the Total Daily Ballot Update from 10/22 AM to 10/23 AM by Political Registration:



Now let's look at the daily update as a % of Vote by Political Registration:



These numbers do not appear to be positive for Oregon Republicans in any election in any way shape or form.

If we had local elections for a County Dog Catcher running as a PUB even in "Rural Downstate Oregon", many folks would be more likely to vote for the DEM County "Dog Catcher"....  TO from DEMS and NAVs, might well accentuate the "sleeping Giant Wave", where even OR House and Senate PUBs lose even more swing seats than they did in 2018.

County level numbers from Deep Republican Counties to Hard DEM Counties appear to represent a GE PRES landslide in OR the likes that we have never seen.

[philly09]

Could somebody explain the "Total Vote" column in the FLA spreadsheet? For instance, Miami Date claims 488,150 votes, but if you add the 144,878 votes that the GOP has and the 220,336 votes the Democrats have so far, that only comes out to 365,214 votes. Are there 122,000votes from NPAs that aren't listed?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319873315591258112

[n1240]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

[philly09]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

Looking better and and better for Biden.

[swf541]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

Seems like quite a bit more unaffiliated vs 2016?