2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Ljube]

Why is it not possible?

Yes, please explain why it's not possible (preferably with something more substantive than "I don't believe it.")

Dems voting 99-1 for their candidate, that has never happened.
Plus it is unlikely that independents will break toward anybody by more than 10 percent margin.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Trump better hope not even one supporter gets lazy/nervous and sits out Election Day

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.

WTF are you talking about? According to ElectProject Florida is already at 60% of 2016's turnout.

[Ljube]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.
I don’t like numbers that don’t reinforce my biases so I’ll call them fake

FIFY

You know, you can believe what you want, but if you're unable to recognize a problem with these numbers, then you'll be in for another surprise on November 3.

[compucomp]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.
I don’t like numbers that don’t reinforce my biases so I’ll call them fake

FIFY

You know, you can believe what you want, but if you're unable to recognize a problem with these numbers, then you'll be in for another surprise on November 3.

Put your money where your mouth is. Show us your positions on PredictIt, that you're long Trump in Florida.

[forsythvoter]

The Dem numbers look a little to Biden friendly but the Republican and Independent numbers seem plausible. If you assume Biden is winning Ds 95-5, it cuts the early vote advantage from 24% to 20%.

I would actually say more than 50% of FL has already early voted so the 45% is too low. Assuming turnout is around 10M to 10.5M (vs. 9.4M last time), we already have 5.6M or so votes cast, which is about 53%.

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.
I don’t like numbers that don’t reinforce my biases so I’ll call them fake

FIFY

You know, you can believe what you want, but if you're unable to recognize a problem with these numbers, then you'll be in for another surprise on November 3.

Unless you have something apt to add to the conversation, nobody cares about your feelings.

[GP270watch]

2020 turnout is going to blow past 2016 in most states.

[philly09]

We're up to 59 Million votes!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.

WTF are you talking about? According to ElectProject Florida is already at 60% of 2016's turnout.

I was about to say, isn't it around 60%? 9,400,000 (roughly rounded) voted in 2016.  5,722,000 have already voted in Florida according to ElectProject.  

[NCJeff]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

[pantsaregood]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

Why would Biden triage Florida if he was up like this?

[Tintrlvr]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.

WTF are you talking about? According to ElectProject Florida is already at 60% of 2016's turnout.

I was about to say, isn't it around 60%? 9,400,000 (roughly rounded) voted in 2016.  5,722,000 have already voted in Florida according to ElectProject.  

Right, and turnout is already at 41% of all registered voters (which doesn't even count absentee ballots that have been mailed by the voter but not yet received). Unless you think turnout in Florida is going to exceed 90% of registered voters (it won't), YouGov was actually underestimating the percentage of voters who have already voted. If you assume 80% of registered voters vote (which is a notable increase on 2016 but seems reasonable), then 51% of 2020 voters have already voted in Florida.

(Of course, their poll is from a few days ago; 45% of all 2020 voters having voted would have been closer to accurate a few days ago.)

[NCJeff]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

Why would Biden triage Florida if he was up like this?

There was a raft of posts a couple days ago about how Biden should pull out of FL. I guess I'll work on my delivery......

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is it not possible?

Yes, please explain why it's not possible (preferably with something more substantive than "I don't believe it.")

Dems voting 99-1 for their candidate, that has never happened.
Plus it is unlikely that independents will break toward anybody by more than 10 percent margin.

1) A national pandemic has never been bungled so poorly either.

2) The people who vote early, particularly by mail, are disproportionally likely to think that the pandemic is risky to their health.

3) Biden was selected by primary voters precisely because he was moderate and could appeal to independents (who notably trended to democrats in 2018 as well).

Why dont you rebut all of the pieces of evidence with your own evidence?

[ultraviolet]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

This does not pertain to NC because you used FL numbers.

[DaleCooper]

Given how polarized mail-in voting is, I'm not at all surprised at the potential for Biden getting 99% of Florida Democrats and 12% of Florida Republicans (that mail in their ballots).

[NCJeff]

While I would agree the Biden numbers seem awfully optimistic, if the 3.1M votes already cast break 61-37 for Biden, and the 1.85M votes outstanding (*) break 58-41 for Trump, then Biden wins the two-party vote 54-56.  Looking at 538 right now, that's the 90th percentile outcome for Biden.  Unlikely, but not out of line with what we know about the polling right now.

* Assuming total turnout is same as 2016 + 4% population growth.

Edited to clarify that this pertains to NC. I assume Biden will triage FL based on these numbers...

This does not pertain to NC because you used FL numbers.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-florida-georgia-north-carolina-opinion-poll-10-25-2020/



You're right, I was off by 1 pct in "already voted". And I need to correct the two party margin to Biden 54-46. Whoops.

[ultraviolet]

Maybe if people would actually try to see what the numbers mean instead of wanting to panic immediately, we’d all see that the numbers are actually pretty good for Biden.

If the YouGov numbers are to be believed, the totals would be:

FL: Biden 51-48
NC: Biden 51-47
GA: Biden 49-49

I have to admit when I first saw the YouGov polls I thought it looked bad. But a simple sumproduct calculation in excel proved me wrong. Humans suck at processing numbers, but can’t we at least try to be smart with them?

[Bootes Void]

2020 turnout is going to blow past 2016 in most states.

Try all states fairly decisively

[KaiserDave]

Great day for Dems I take it?

[NOVA Green]

Why is it not possible?

Yes, please explain why it's not possible (preferably with something more substantive than "I don't believe it.")

Dems voting 99-1 for their candidate, that has never happened.
Plus it is unlikely that independents will break toward anybody by more than 10 percent margin.

Didn't one of the posters upthread talk about how FL effectively has AVR through the DMV, meaning that we have tons of new voters in FL who are automatically registered to vote?

Considering that in 2016 even many DEM leaning lower propensity voters were a bit reluctant to even participate because of "Blah HRC Candidate" sentiments, it is not unfathomable to see NPA voters in a high-turnout election context swing the hardest with the greatest increase in raw votes.

I recall Arch back in 2016 when he lived outside of Orlando talking about the surge in Puerto Rican voters moving to FL after the Hurricane, and how that was gonna be a major factor in the 2016 GE.

Although that may or may not have been the case, it appears that White Seniors in FL swinging hard PUB in '16 was enough to deliver that State for him by a solid margin, and it is also extremely likely that many NPA voters sat out the election.

It would be an interesting academic case study to examine change in voter registration by County and Partisan Affiliation from '08 to '20, as well as Turnout levels by EV / ED to see what the results show once all of the votes are counted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1320412747310485504

[Non Swing Voter]

FL early vote turnout:

Dems at 47.4% of registered Dem voters.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

According to my math, Williamson County just hit 203,104 voters, which would mean they officially surpassed 2016's vote total with 10 minutes to go on this Sunday!