2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

Osceola in particular.  Lots of Puerto Ricans who register as independent but vote Democrat. 

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

Yeah i'm excluding the independents but just looking at the party vote, the dems are expected to be returning their ballots faster but they aren't coming in as much of a greater % as i would expect right now they need huge numbers to overlap the republican's on election day.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

Yeah i'm excluding the independents but just looking at the party vote, the dems are expected to be returning their ballots faster but they aren't coming in as much of a greater % as i would expect right now they need huge numbers to overlap the republican's on election day.

If that helps you sleep, ok. Dem return percentages are higher than R’s and they built a 150k advantage in a week, without even including votes from Orange or Miami-Dade. This is not a “bad” sign by any means.

[Non Swing Voter]

I wonder if we are at the point where the election project site basically adds 1 million or more early votes a day (on weekdays).  It looks like it's getting close to that already.

[jeron]

I wonder if we are at the point where the election project site basically adds 1 million or more early votes a day (on weekdays).  It looks like it's getting close to that already.

It will happen once California, Texas and New York start voting

[LimoLiberal]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

buddy this is not how this works lol

Democrats, Republicans, and NPA(no party affiliated)/3rd Party voters requested absentee ballots in the state of Florida. The breakdown of those requests was 46-31-23 Democrat-Republican-Other.

As counties have mailed out those ballots in the past week almost 500,000 have already been returned.

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1312388572830367744

Democrats have returned their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, beyond their initial advantage in requests. This represents a shift from previous years. All this is stated in the tweet above.

If any importance is afforded to these early statistics Democrats look to be in great shape. Now I don't think these early numbers mean much other than people on both sides are eager to vote. But "Great news for a close race as a Republican" is hilariously wrong. You cannot ignore the 23% of VBM requests that come from voters not affiliated with the two major parties. I guarantee you that those voters favor Joe Biden as a whole because of the Democratic lean of the early vote in general, and possibly as a whole.

You say "still far from where Dems need to be in early voting". My question to you is where should Democrats "be" in early voting at this point, beyond outstripping Republicans in requests and outstripping Republicans even further in return rate?

[Non Swing Voter]

I wonder if we are at the point where the election project site basically adds 1 million or more early votes a day (on weekdays).  It looks like it's getting close to that already.

It will happen once California, Texas and New York start voting

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

looks like that's pretty soon for California.

[Non Swing Voter]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

buddy this is not how this works lol

Democrats, Republicans, and NPA(no party affiliated)/3rd Party voters requested absentee ballots in the state of Florida. The breakdown of those requests was 46-31-23 Democrat-Republican-Other.

As counties have mailed out those ballots in the past week almost 500,000 have already been returned.

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1312388572830367744

Democrats have returned their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, beyond their initial advantage in requests. This represents a shift from previous years. All this is stated in the tweet above.

If any importance is afforded to these early statistics Democrats look to be in great shape. Now I don't think these early numbers mean much other than people on both sides are eager to vote. But "Great news for a close race as a Republican" is hilariously wrong. You cannot ignore the 23% of VBM requests that come from voters not affiliated with the two major parties. I guarantee you that those voters favor Joe Biden as a whole because of the Democratic lean of the early vote in general, and possibly as a whole.

You say "still far from where Dems need to be in early voting". My question to you is where should Democrats "be" in early voting at this point, beyond outstripping Republicans in requests and outstripping Republicans even further in return rate?

It would be hilarious if the Republican attempts to disenfranchise Democrats mailing votes absentee backfires big time because their own voters were slower to request and return absentee ballots and a lot are returned late.  You'd see Republicans suddenly championing voting rights and saying we need to count late arriving ballots.

[It’s so Joever]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

buddy this is not how this works lol

Democrats, Republicans, and NPA(no party affiliated)/3rd Party voters requested absentee ballots in the state of Florida. The breakdown of those requests was 46-31-23 Democrat-Republican-Other.

As counties have mailed out those ballots in the past week almost 500,000 have already been returned.

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1312388572830367744

Democrats have returned their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, beyond their initial advantage in requests. This represents a shift from previous years. All this is stated in the tweet above.

If any importance is afforded to these early statistics Democrats look to be in great shape. Now I don't think these early numbers mean much other than people on both sides are eager to vote. But "Great news for a close race as a Republican" is hilariously wrong. You cannot ignore the 23% of VBM requests that come from voters not affiliated with the two major parties. I guarantee you that those voters favor Joe Biden as a whole because of the Democratic lean of the early vote in general, and possibly as a whole.

You say "still far from where Dems need to be in early voting". My question to you is where should Democrats "be" in early voting at this point, beyond outstripping Republicans in requests and outstripping Republicans even further in return rate?

Pfft, unless Dems have a 600k lead they are supposedly screwed. Never mind the fact that only like 500,000 out of millions of ballots have been returned.

The Dems are going to lose because they don’t have a 600k margin out of 500k total ballots. It’s just math, liberals.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do Dems need to net 600k from mail ballots alone, or is it mail+early voting?

[GP270watch]

Do Dems need to net 600k from mail ballots alone, or is it mail+early voting?

 I have no idea where this 600k number was pulled from regarding Florida.

 In 2018 Democrats had a mail-in+early vote advantage(by Party ID) of 31,641 and lost the Senate and Gubernatorial races by 10,033 and 32,454.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/700669/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2018-genpdf.pdf

 In 2016 Democrats had a mail-in+early vote lead of 96,450 and Clinton lost to Trump by 112,911.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

 Every election is different and it's clear that more people are voting early and we can only guess who independants will break for by what the polls are saying. In 2016 indies and undecideds voted for Trump.

[Non Swing Voter]

where are we coming up with the 600K early vote margin for Dems in Florida anyways? 

Also, at the current rate seems like they will get that or more.  As others have noted, Miami has barely reported.

[GP270watch]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

 This is an interesting article with actual vote totals from North Carolina for 2016. I don't think anybody has really found a reliable way to model early voting info into prognostication forecasts.

[Minnesota Mike]

Do Dems need to net 600k from mail ballots alone, or is it mail+early voting?

 I have no idea where this 600k number was pulled from regarding Florida.

 In 2018 Democrats had a mail-in+early vote advantage(by Party ID) of 31,641 and lost the Senate and Gubernatorial races by 10,033 and 32,454.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/700669/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2018-genpdf.pdf

 In 2016 Democrats had a mail-in+early vote lead of 96,450 and Clinton lost to Trump by 112,911.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

 Every election is different and it's clear that more people are voting early and we can only guess who independants will break for by what the polls are saying. In 2016 indies and undecideds voted for Trump.

I believe the 600-700K number is coming from the fact that about 750K more Democrats have requested absentee ballots than Republicans.

[Minnesota Mike]

More important than the raw numbers in Florida is the return rate (ballots returned/ballots requested).  In past elections Republicans have returned a higher percentage of requested ballots than Democrats. With the expanded use of VBM Democrats can't let that happen this year.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

my ballot has been received yay

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

Yeah i'm excluding the independents but just looking at the party vote, the dems are expected to be returning their ballots faster but they aren't coming in as much of a greater % as i would expect right now they need huge numbers to overlap the republican's on election day.

If that helps you sleep, ok. Dem return percentages are higher than R’s and they built a 150k advantage in a week, without even including votes from Orange or Miami-Dade. This is not a “bad” sign by any means.

i'm just looking at the % and raw votes yes it's good so far without orange or miami i expect ~200k lead or so by next week but will it offset election day voting? we will see they need a 500-600k lead.

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

buddy this is not how this works lol

Democrats, Republicans, and NPA(no party affiliated)/3rd Party voters requested absentee ballots in the state of Florida. The breakdown of those requests was 46-31-23 Democrat-Republican-Other.

As counties have mailed out those ballots in the past week almost 500,000 have already been returned.

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1312388572830367744
Democrats have returned their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, beyond their initial advantage in requests. This represents a shift from previous years. All this is stated in the tweet above.

If any importance is afforded to these early statistics Democrats look to be in great shape. Now I don't think these early numbers mean much other than people on both sides are eager to vote. But "Great news for a close race as a Republican" is hilariously wrong. You cannot ignore the 23% of VBM requests that come from voters not affiliated with the two major parties. I guarantee you that those voters favor Joe Biden as a whole because of the Democratic lean of the early vote in general, and possibly as a whole.

You say "still far from where Dems need to be in early voting". My question to you is where should Democrats "be" in early voting at this point, beyond outstripping Republicans in requests and outstripping Republicans even further in return rate?

Why are you comparing mail in voting from 2016 to 2020? we all know this is a different election and democrats will be banking on the mail in voting while republicans will bank in person voting? different from 2016 when repubs did well in mail in while dems did well with early voting. It's still very early regardless and need votes in from the exurbs and orange/miami-dade. I think ~120k is a great start for dems, i think the big question is how big the lead gets into election day to cancel out republicans turning out on election day by huge margins. Note - a lot of these 'dems' too are ancestral dems in the north who never changed their registration as well.

[GP270watch]

More important than the raw numbers in Florida is the return rate (ballots returned/ballots requested).  In past elections Republicans have returned a higher percentage of requested ballots than Democrats. With the expanded use of VBM Democrats can't let that happen this year.

But all this information is muddy. You can request a mail in ballot go vote early in person and you are counted as an early in person voter. How many people do this, I'm not sure. The problem with this information is there are too many variables.

[NOVA Green]

Extremely interesting discussion regarding FL early voting from many Atlas Members...

If anybody could help pull some these numbers in visual Table, Chart, Graph, Maps etc would be greatly appreciated....

Florida---One of only Four States of the US that I have never been too, and we have all sorts of random stuff being thrown around without any real Political Science level of analysis...

Not too hard to export data, run a few queries, create pivot tables in Excel and even through in a power-point slide...

Exporting to precinct maps likely trickier....

After all in 2020 we have truly entered a virtual "Twilight Zone World", after early signals from 2016....

"Discuss With Maps" used to be a classic Atlas Meme, but at the same time I would like to see Excel Tables and maps to help truly explain what is really going on for those of us w/o any real understanding of the subtleties of Florida Politics....

Thanks....

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I wonder if we are at the point where the election project site basically adds 1 million or more early votes a day (on weekdays).  It looks like it's getting close to that already.

It will happen once California, Texas and New York start voting

CA ballots have been mailed and are expected to arrive Monday (if they haven't already). Expect national early votes to spike in the next few days.


Also, just thinking out loud in regards to GA, I wonder if early voting would mitigate a lot of the pitfalls/roadblocks in regards to potential voter suppression and/or election day funny-business that voters wouldn't have time to fix

[Non Swing Voter]

Extremely interesting discussion regarding FL early voting from many Atlas Members...

If anybody could help pull some these numbers in visual Table, Chart, Graph, Maps etc would be greatly appreciated....

Florida---One of only Four States of the US that I have never been too, and we have all sorts of random stuff being thrown around without any real Political Science level of analysis...

Not too hard to export data, run a few queries, create pivot tables in Excel and even through in a power-point slide...

Exporting to precinct maps likely trickier....

After all in 2020 we have truly entered a virtual "Twilight Zone World", after early signals from 2016....

"Discuss With Maps" used to be a classic Atlas Meme, but at the same time I would like to see Excel Tables and maps to help truly explain what is really going on for those of us w/o any real understanding of the subtleties of Florida Politics....

Thanks....

Have you seen these two sites?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=0

[Non Swing Voter]

I wonder if we are at the point where the election project site basically adds 1 million or more early votes a day (on weekdays).  It looks like it's getting close to that already.

It will happen once California, Texas and New York start voting

CA ballots have been mailed and are expected to arrive Monday (if they haven't already). Expect national early votes to spike in the next few days.


Also, just thinking out loud in regards to GA, I wonder if early voting would mitigate a lot of the pitfalls/roadblocks in regards to potential voter suppression and/or election day funny-business that voters wouldn't have time to fix

For sure.  Early voting also will decrease lines on Election Day encouraging more voting.  Hence why GOP is trying to cut early voting days all over the place.  The GOP is afraid of more people voting, it's clear.  I would be too if I were them in this environment.

[Non Swing Voter]

BTW looks like the Florida numbers have been updated.  over 500k votes and Dems with a 140k lead now.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition