2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[republican1993]

when do we usually get a lot of votes coming in per day for florida? i am excited to see how they trend.

[republican1993]

When can we start extrapolating anything from this? 

In 2016, extrapolating from NC and FL's early vote is literally what led some of us to believe Clinton had the election in the bag. We know that with a pandemic, we have nothing at all to compare it too. There is simply nothing to be done with this information.

If republicans keeps within 100-200k being down by election day in FL + within 300-400k in NC? i think that's a good sign for trump? - dems were up ~100k going into election day and 400k in NC.

[republican1993]

are there any good signs for republicans in early voting so far? i don't know how to read this i know reps won't be winning this vote but curious for any trends anyone has noticed. i know in the south a big thing to watch is the white % and see how that is compared to the black %.

[republican1993]

are there any good signs for republicans in early voting so far? i don't know how to read this i know reps won't be winning this vote but curious for any trends anyone has noticed. i know in the south a big thing to watch is the white % and see how that is compared to the black %.

Not necessarily. Biden is doing a lot better with white voters in general. That might be a better idea in the southern states, perhaps.

Overall, what you want to look at is turnout, and where it's coming from, like Falls Church. So far, it's looking more like 2018.

yeah true but it looks like the rural areas are bringing their ballots back in high % too - i think the cities/urban areas are more to bank their votes early and slow down hopefully. NC + WI look pretty good IMO. the dems were up 400k in early voting before election day in NC and still lost.

[republican1993]

I think it's hard to make any sort of determinations based on the numbers so far.

Yes, the early vote demographics clearly favor Democrats.  What does that mean for the election?  Does it mean Democrats are turning out in huge numbers?  Or does it just mean that lots of Democrats are voting early/VBM while lots of Republicans are planning to vote in-person day-of?

that's what i'm trying to figure out i know dems in urban areas are energized and going to bank their vote early within the first week or two of mail in voting, but i'm curious how things will look in mid/late october (i don't care about Virginia and these blue states def more energized to get rid of trump) im more curious about the swing states in the south/midwest. I know many people like myself who are republicans who are voting on election day ( i just like the tradition and excitement of it all)

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

They can't. Virginia has no registration by party

ah good to know! btw germany is #1 love deutschland

[republican1993]

welp that didn't take long, Virginia has already surpassed NC for the most early votes at 261,000.  LOL, people in Virginia really really despise Trump.

Do we have any idea the party breakdown of these voters and regions?

This is a good site for early/mail vote in Virginia:

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

It seems the more Democratic areas of the state have higher early voter turnout than the Republocan areas, which is expected.

Thank you!! super helpful - i see they are showing the district breakdown by district - they aren't showing the party breakdown anywhere?

Yeah as others have said, no registration by party, but the heavy turnout appears to be in urban/suburban areas that are not friendly to the GOP.  Anecdotally if looks like suburban white females are disproportionately turning out.  Maybe the RBG thing is motivating them?  These people would likely vote anyways, not really low propensity voters, but when you have like 20% voter turnout already in some of the most heavily democratic precincts it shows Democrats are clearly motivated.  So I don't buy the enthusiasm gap for Trump voters thing that the news keeps saying.  There's enthusiasm on both sides and Biden's coalition is bigger.  That's why I think these numbers are important.

I agree! makes me nervous but i see they are def motivating in the first few weeks of early voting.

[republican1993]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

because of 131k votes? LOL dems are expected to do well in early voting if not they are def losing.

[republican1993]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

because of 131k votes? LOL dems are expected to do well in early voting if not they are def losing.

There are actually about 237k votes in and Dems have 54% of those or a 62k vote advantage. As it was said it’s still early but generally the split is much much more even.

yup i agree - if the spread gets to like 300k dem advantage than repubs should be worried

[republican1993]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

[republican1993]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

exactly i agree especially in philly area + detroit area- Milwaukee suburbs looks very high at the moment too, but they should be very good for trump - biggest ? mark is how the south west part of the state goes.

[republican1993]

Does high turnout in wisconsin around the board benefit dems or repubs? dane had 218k votes in 2016, curious to see how far they can go if they break 80-20 for biden.

Wasn't some of the post-2016 analysis that low turnout in Milwaukee really hurt Clinton?  I'm keeping my eye on turnout in places like Milwaukee, Philly, Detroit, Minneapolis. 

I presume college educated white suburban voters are already turning out no matter what.

exactly i agree especially in philly area + detroit area- Milwaukee suburbs looks very high at the moment too, but they should be very good for trump - biggest ? mark is how the south west part of the state goes.

Yeah I wanna see the margins there.  I also wanna see the margins in Pittsburgh, its suburbs, Detroit suburbs and Kent County, MI.  Of course I am presuming that across the board rural areas will go for Trump around the same margins elsewhere, though perhaps that's not a fair assumption either. 

honestly me too i am curious but i cant really go off this data because early voting is when dems will get most of their vote in so if they cant get anything close to 2016 there is a red flag by november.

[republican1993]

so are republicans expected to do well with early in person in florida starting in a few weeks and the early mail in ballot advantage is for the dems (asking for florida but also the other states as well)?

[republican1993]

so are republicans expected to do well with early in person in florida starting in a few weeks and the early mail in ballot advantage is for the dems (asking for florida but also the other states as well)?

hard to say.  Republicans usually do better in mail ballots while Democrats do better in early in person voting.  But covid has mixed everything up.  I'd still expect Democrats to do better in early in person voting.  Republicans really need to turnout massively on Election Day I think.

Yeah that's what i was thinking the republicans did well in 2016 with the mail in but dems always run up the score in early voting.. i guess we will see over the next weeks - if repbs r returning about the same as dems (as it is now) looks good for them even if they are only down ~100k

[republican1993]

I know it’s still super early, but the Georgia votes look very good for Biden so far. The whites/black number is roughly 56-34, which is much better than it was in 2018 when Abrams’ only lost by 1%. On top of that, nearly half of the Latino/Asian votes banked thus far did not vote in 2016/2018. Dare I say that it might be “just there yet”?

still early but something to look out for as we get closer to november

[republican1993]

On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

[republican1993]

On twitter someone said dems needs to be up by ~550k votes in early mail in to win the state or be competitive at least - does this sound right?

If you’re talking about Florida, then yes, I’ve seen the 500-700k vote advantage floated multiple places, and I see no reason to disagree with that. Republicans will turn out in full force on Election Day, so it is up to Dems to get as many infrequent voters banked away as possible to counteract that.

got it thank you! yes i meant florida 550k is a high number but puts a lot of pressure on repubs to come out on election day and who knows how covid will be in november when things are gradually getting worse...

[republican1993]

We also can't overexamine the Georgia Data it's going to be very pro-dem so the white vote will be a bit lower than expectations because republicans will be out on election day.

2016 exit polls had 30% with black vote in GA so 33% is okay without ATL not in yet, i guess if the black vote gets to 36/37 that's good going into election day.

[republican1993]

We also can't overexamine the Georgia Data it's going to be very pro-dem so the white vote will be a bit lower than expectations because republicans will be out on election day.

2016 exit polls had 30% with black vote in GA so 33% is okay without ATL not in yet, i guess if the black vote gets to 36/37 that's good going into election day.

Wasn't 2016 basically 40% minority IIRC?  Like 30% Black 10% Asian/Hispanic/Other.  Seems to me if it was a 5 point race and Black goes up to 33% and the others go up to say 12% this is going to be a nail biter.  Especially because the white vote might shift slightly in Biden's favor too.

yup i can see it being a nailbiter, or 1-2 point trump/biden win. the electorate was 60% white and 40% non-white in 2016, so it will be interesting to see how things trend go

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

I'm looking at turnout too.  I am curious what kind of turnout we will get in three areas: South Florida, the Panhandle, and Orange County + surrounding counties. 

Yup agreed - Alachua (Gainesville) big college area looks okay wit the % for Biden, the panhandle is still registered as dem's so take that with a grain of salt most of those people haven't changed their registrations. I'll be curious on the margins and votes in Orange and Seminole too. 138k dem advantage today is only a slight increase, I can see once orange + miami start coming in it can be almost ~200k advantage but still far from where dems need to be in early voting. Great news for a close race as a republican.

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

Yeah i'm excluding the independents but just looking at the party vote, the dems are expected to be returning their ballots faster but they aren't coming in as much of a greater % as i would expect right now they need huge numbers to overlap the republican's on election day.

[republican1993]

Andrew Bond
@AndrewBond3
·
14m
Amazing how many ballots have come in so far today in FL. 538K (3.7% turnout) in this morning was 462K.  So 76K in so far today. I could see FL hitting 1M returned by Wednesday. Still under 1% in Brevard, Clay, Hernando, Miami, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Looks like dems are at 2016 levels or a bit lower in dem % compared to clinton from early observation -

Hillsborough - 51% clinton and in this data has dem at 52% 2020
Palm Beach - 56% clinton 61% dem 2020 (i'm sure this will drop once election day comes in so prob 56%-58% in 2020 or so)
Broward - 66% clinton 63% dem 2020
Osceola - 60% clinton 55% dem 2020 (heavily hispanic county)

curious how it will be when we get more data within the next two weeks.

Not sure I understand—Dems are turning in their ballots so far at greater rates than Republicans are. Your analysis also doesn’t include how independents vote, so comparing D returns to Clinton’s percentage is very misleading

Yeah i'm excluding the independents but just looking at the party vote, the dems are expected to be returning their ballots faster but they aren't coming in as much of a greater % as i would expect right now they need huge numbers to overlap the republican's on election day.

If that helps you sleep, ok. Dem return percentages are higher than R’s and they built a 150k advantage in a week, without even including votes from Orange or Miami-Dade. This is not a “bad” sign by any means.

i'm just looking at the % and raw votes yes it's good so far without orange or miami i expect ~200k lead or so by next week but will it offset election day voting? we will see they need a 500-600k lead.