Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Citizen Hats]

Does anyone have notional *provincial* figures for Brandon-Souris and Provencher?  In the former case, especially, we might be able to sense what an NDP "optimum" might be...

I added up the four provincial ridings which most closely correspond to Brandon-Souris in the 2011 Manitoba General Election, and the results were 40.12% 55.05% 4.29% 0.54%

[lilTommy]

Does anyone have notional *provincial* figures for Brandon-Souris and Provencher?  In the former case, especially, we might be able to sense what an NDP "optimum" might be...

I added up the four provincial ridings which most closely correspond to Brandon-Souris in the 2011 Manitoba General Election, and the results were 40.12% 55.05% 4.29% 0.54%

Now it hard to do a direct correlation between fed&prov voting; but with those numbers, the NDP should put their resources into BS, those numbers make this a within-reach kind of riding. 

[Citizen Hats]

Well, perhaps that has something to do with the curious fact that Brandon-Souris is the only rural riding in the Praries which never elected a reform MP

[adma]

Well, perhaps that has something to do with the curious fact that Brandon-Souris is the only rural riding in the Praries which never elected a reform MP

It would have, were Borotsik not so popular.

[RogueBeaver]

Funke has an update on potential candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Our first date to keep track of is this Sunday when the Liberals have their nomination meeting in Bourassa.

[Hatman 🍁]

Dubourg wins the Liberal nomination in Bourassa. Only 193 votes cast apparently.

[lilTommy]

Dubourg wins the Liberal nomination in Bourassa. Only 193 votes cast apparently.

Hmmm that seems kinda low for a relatively high profile nomination in a "strong hold" riding, or is that just me?

[Hatman 🍁]

Dubourg wins the Liberal nomination in Bourassa. Only 193 votes cast apparently.

Hmmm that seems kinda low for a relatively high profile nomination in a "strong hold" riding, or is that just me?

Yes, that's very low. Aren't typical Liberal nomination meetings in safe seats in the 1000 category? I guess one reason is it wasn't a very fierce battle.

[Hatman 🍁]

"well known former journalist" John Deverell will be the Green candidate in Toronto Centre. Never heard of him. Apparently he's a former Liberal.

[RogueBeaver]

A bunch of Star journalists running in TO Centre. Talk about a Laurentian Elite self-parody, as Bricker/Ibbitson would say.

[DC Al Fine]

Must be some awkward working at the Star with all the political cliques going on.

[DL]

"well known former journalist" John Deverell will be the Green candidate in Toronto Centre. Never heard of him. Apparently he's a former Liberal.

I love these "well-known" people no one has ever heard of!

[lilTommy]

Toronto Centre nominations are this Sunday for both the NDP and Liberals, at the bottom you see almost all the nominations have been set by each of the parties

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2013/09/ndp-sets-two-nomination-meeting-dates-as-conservative-deadline-approaches/

Bourassa - A weak Bloc only helps the NDP (i've said this myself too) no Liberal guarantee of a win
http://www.canada.com/news/Macpherson+count+Bourassa+election/8889004/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

TO Centre voting is this afternoon, we'll know the results early tonight.

[Hatman 🍁]

Linda McQuaig wins.

Highlight from Twitter was David Aikin claiming that Jennifer Hollett was the establishment choice, and everyone saying "wtf"?


Too bad Hollett lost, but McQuaig is a great candidate too.

[Smid]

Linda McQuaig wins.

Highlight from Twitter was David Aikin claiming that Jennifer Hollett was the establishment choice, and everyone saying "wtf"?


Too bad Hollett lost, but McQuaig is a great candidate too.

The names don't mean much to me, brief bios?

[DC Al Fine]

Linda McQuaig wins.

Highlight from Twitter was David Aikin claiming that Jennifer Hollett was the establishment choice, and everyone saying "wtf"?


Too bad Hollett lost, but McQuaig is a great candidate too.

The names don't mean much to me, brief bios?

Hollett is a former on-air personality for MuchMusic (our version of MTV) she's known for women's rights activism in 3rd world countries.

McQuaig is a columnist with the Toronto Star (left-liberal paper). She's also written some books about Canada's transition from universal social programs to "American style" means-based social programs.

Hatman can give more detail about their NDP backgrounds/views.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chrystia Freeland wins the Liberal nomination

[Hatman 🍁]

Linda McQuaig wins.

Highlight from Twitter was David Aikin claiming that Jennifer Hollett was the establishment choice, and everyone saying "wtf"?


Too bad Hollett lost, but McQuaig is a great candidate too.

The names don't mean much to me, brief bios?

They both have Wikipedia entries

[trebor204]

In Manitoba

Larry Maguire, Arthur-Virden MLA, acclaimed for the Conservatives in Brandon - Souris
Ted Falk, Steinbach Credit Union Chairman,  acclaimed for the Conservatives in Provencher

Brandon Sun is reporting that Conservatives are being told to prepare themselves for mid-November by-elections.

With Larry running Federally, there should be a provincial by-election in Arthur-Virden

[RogueBeaver]

Globe interview w/Freeland & McQuaig.

[RogueBeaver]

Cullen could seek the provincial NDP leadership? Also, Mulcair promises McQuaig a frontbench slot if she wins.

[RogueBeaver]

Veteran Niagara Falls OLP MPP Kim Craitor has resigned effective immediately. Wynne promises a by-election within 6 months. Won by about 0.8% over the Tories 2 years ago, so a ripe pickup opportunity.

[lilTommy]

Veteran Niagara Falls OLP MPP Kim Craitor has resigned effective immediately. Wynne promises a by-election within 6 months. Won by about 0.8% over the Tories 2 years ago, so a ripe pickup opportunity.

Another Battle Royal! It's anyone's game; the tories have had nothing but bad publicity recently (since the by-elections), the NDP generally favourable and the Liberals are all over the place. It's industrial Niagara region so it's mixed with the wealthier Niagara-on-the-lake and working class Niagara Falls. Since 1990, all three parties have held the various forms of this riding.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niagara_Falls_(provincial_electoral_district)
OLP - 35%
PC - 34%
NDP - 26%

Federal results
Con - 53%
NDP - 23%
Lib - 18%