Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Robert Benzie on Twitter: Dwight Duncan will resign his seat next week. Windsor-Tecumseh now opens up. Will Dippers try and grab it?

[DC Al Fine]

Robert Benzie on Twitter: Dwight Duncan will resign his seat next week. Windsor-Tecumseh now opens up. Will Dippers try and grab it?

Should be a pretty easy Dipper pick up. Grits don't have a star and the NDP are riding high in the polls.

[adma]

Then again, the same was said about Windsor West after Sandra P. resigned in '11.  (For some reason, the ONDP's been blowing its central Windsor opportunities even while its federal cousins are cleaning house.  But at least they snagged Essex as a consolation prize.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Poopoo running?

[lilTommy]

Is Poopoo running?

Heard from the VP of the ONDP shes done with politics... but thats been said before eh. I just don't see her running and not being the Premier, she was a cabinet minister before and that wasn't enough for her to stay in politics. I'm going with she's out.

Heard that Rick Bartolucci might be thinking of jumping out too

Any possible ONDP candidates?

[RogueBeaver]

Bob Rae is retiring this summer, apparently Smitherman wants to take a shot in TO Centre.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/07/john-ivison-bob-rae-will-retire-this-summer/

[MaxQue]

Not related to by-elections exactly, but I saw the party list of Elections Canada than the United Party has new logo.

An exact copy of the UK Lib Dem logo, with a maple leaf added over it.

[toaster]

Bartolucci announced today he will not seek re-election, but will complete his current term.  He has informed Wynne not to consider him for a Minister position.

Federally, if the NDP could get a star candidate in Toronto Centre, they'd have a chance to take it.  Someone like David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not related to by-elections exactly, but I saw the party list of Elections Canada than the United Party has new logo.

An exact copy of the UK Lib Dem logo, with a maple leaf added over it.

LOL

Kind of like that Mexican party that ripped off the Canadian Alliance.

[lilTommy]

Bartolucci announced today he will not seek re-election, but will complete his current term.  He has informed Wynne not to consider him for a Minister position.

Federally, if the NDP could get a star candidate in Toronto Centre, they'd have a chance to take it.  Someone like David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton.

Ahh... i'm sure Wynne will have a number of those conversations with some long time OLP MPPs

David Miller - I would love to see this, don't know what else he's up to, so maybe?
Marilyn Churley - Probably not, she didn't run in 11 in Beaches, shes a justice of the peace now i believe so i'd say she is probably a no too.
Mike Layton - Nah, hes new to council and thats not his riding. Hes going to be sticking around on council for at least another term before he even thinks of anything else.

Maybe Pam McConnell might step up and run, she's been a long time councillor for the southern part of the riding.

[RogueBeaver]

Bentley is resigning next week.

[toaster]

Bartolucci announced today he will not seek re-election, but will complete his current term.  He has informed Wynne not to consider him for a Minister position.

Federally, if the NDP could get a star candidate in Toronto Centre, they'd have a chance to take it.  Someone like David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton.

Ahh... i'm sure Wynne will have a number of those conversations with some long time OLP MPPs

Well McGuinty, Duncan, Bartolucci and now Bentley are all out.  Gravelle is battleing lymphoma, can't see him in cabinet.  I cannot see a scenario where Broten is not demoted to backbencher.  This is really going to be a very new cabinet.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

[adma]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

It's actually more NDP friendly than it seems (i.e. where 20%+ currently seems the norm)

I wouldn't put it above them to aim for 3-way competitivity.

[adma]

Not related to by-elections exactly, but I saw the party list of Elections Canada than the United Party has new logo.

An exact copy of the UK Lib Dem logo, with a maple leaf added over it.

LOL

Kind of like that Mexican party that ripped off the Canadian Alliance.

Well, then there's this



as a ripoff of this

[Benj]

Not related to by-elections exactly, but I saw the party list of Elections Canada than the United Party has new logo.

An exact copy of the UK Lib Dem logo, with a maple leaf added over it.

LOL

Kind of like that Mexican party that ripped off the Canadian Alliance.

Well, then there's this



as a ripoff of this

That seems like a stretch. Not nearly like:






The Mexican party is even called the "New Alliance Party".

[Hatman 🍁]

The NAP's previous logo was even more similar looking.

[RogueBeaver]

Who would the Grits run in Toronto Centre? Only name I've heard mentioned is Smitherman, and I don't think any of the McGuintyites should be hoisted into Parliament. Kennedy is probably returning to provincial politics.

[DL]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

[RogueBeaver]

The Ontario Grits will lose Windsor West without Pupatello, but she's probably not running. There are more retirements to come next week.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/02/08/sandra_pupatello_gives_liberals_best_hope_of_holding_dwight_duncans_windsor_seat_poll_finds.html

[adma]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

I think some of the "not friendly" impression is grandfathered in, provincially speaking, from 1999, when the NDP strategically targeted LNC (through incumbent Marion Boyd) and Fanshawe (through Mathyssen), but allowed the Liberals to carry the "strategic endorsement" mantle in London West.  But on the whole, those recent 20%+ results (and they even hit that mark federally in 2006!) prove that framing London West as some kind of Oakville case is hooey--if it's "weakest" for the NDP in London, it's only in relative terms.  Everything from the Old South to Oxford Park to even the "panhandle" neighbourhoods around Sherwood Forest Mall is compatible--it's only south of Oxford and west of Wonderland, around Oakridge and Byron and all of that, that you really get into too-affluent/suburban apparent dead zones; and just as with Fife in Waterloo, one can plausibly sway "enough" of that vote to make a difference.

Then again, what makes London West "NDP-compatible" is also what makes it perfect for grand-coalition Liberalness a la Chris Bentley.

[RogueBeaver]

Another federal retirement watch I forgot: Coderre in Bourassa. He said he'd vacate the seat once the leadership is over.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

[King of Kensington]

Maybe Brian Topp will run in Bourassa for the NDP?

[MaxQue]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Well, it's not a reason for not trying.