Canadian by-elections, 2013

[MaxQue]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

In Canada, by-elections are called by the PM.

In this case, Premier, but still - surely there is a Constitutional requirement of a maximum length of time a seat can remain empty?

Each province has its own laws. Manitoba doesn't seem to have a law on that subject.

[lilTommy]

Georges Laraque was forced to quit as the Green Party candidate in Bourassa after it was revealed today that he has been charged with theft and fraud! Not sure what impact this has on the race and who it helps...I don't think it does the BQ any good.

My thinking is the Liberals then NDP will benefit from this, but the Liberals will breath the biggest sigh of relief. Now Quebec might be the odd man out here, but it seems like the Greens and Liberals are the closets, all you have to do is look at how Buddie-buddie May is with the Liberals. But (someone can correct me here) polls have said for green voters their second choice is pretty evenly split but favour the Liberals slightly.
It just makes this a two way race, rather then a three way... so this is very much like Toronto Centre now.

[DL]

My thinking is the Liberals then NDP will benefit from this, but the Liberals will breath the biggest sigh of relief. Now Quebec might be the odd man out here, but it seems like the Greens and Liberals are the closets, all you have to do is look at how Buddie-buddie May is with the Liberals. But (someone can correct me here) polls have said for green voters their second choice is pretty evenly split but favour the Liberals slightly.

I have to disagree. There might be something to your theory if this was a by-election in English Canada but this is Bourassa and there is a totally different dynamic at play there:

1. The Green Party as an actual organism is literally non-existent in Quebec. They have NOTHING, NADA - virtually no members, no donors, no real "brand". The provincial Greens got about 1% of the vote last year and federally the Greens typically poll in low single digits in Quebec - often VERY LOW single digits. May has no personal following in Quebec - particularly since quite frankly - she speaks French like my ass chews gum!

2. As non-existent as the Green party is in Quebec - it gets worse in a very low income multicultural riding like Bourassa. To the extent that the Green party has any "strongholds" at all anywhere in Canada - it's usually in ridings that have a lot of upper middle class, university educated, creative class types, who are rich enough not to care about "economic growth" and who dutifully fill their composters with kitchen scraps every day - many of those people are disaffected Liberals as opposed to NDPers. Green support tends to be almost  non-existent among working class people. Notice that they do particularly badly in places like Winnipeg North or run-down parts of Scarborough etc... I guarantee that a no name Green candidate in Bourassa would be lucky to beat the Rhinoceros party and get over 1% of the vote

3. The Liberal-Green swing vote that is marginally extant in English Canada really doesn't exist in Quebec. In Quebec (esp. in Montreal) there is one "traditional axis" and that is the old federalist/PLQ/LPC vs. sovereignist/BQ/PQ axis. People who are old line federalists and dyed in the wool big "L" Liberals in a riding like Bourassa are people who still buy into that "old dichotomy". Needless to say, when the NDP had its breakthrough in 2011 that shattered the old dichotomy...anyone who was seriously thinking of voting for Laraque as a Green in a riding like Bourassa would have already "crossed the rubicon" and entertained the possibility of exiting the old Lib/federalist vs PQ/sovereignist axis and was willing to vote for a "non-traditional" party...seems to me that if some traditionally Liberal Haitian immigrant was already ready to abandon the Liberal "DNA" and vote Green - going "orange" is only a small step next door. They have already taken the highway exit marked marked "goodbye to the old line parties" and if the first door off the exit ramp marked "Green" is suddenly locked - the very next door that is unlocked is marked "Orange"!

4. To the extent that Laraque was ever going get any significant level of support in Bourassa - it was 100% based on his personal fame and "star quality" and 0% on the Green Party or Elizabeth May. If you even look at his now defunct website - there was almost nothing about the environment and nothing about May - it was all about promoting him as a famous person! Well, if you are the kind of person in Bourassa who was considering voting Green for no other reason than that the candidate was a "star" and had been a pro hockey player and had a high profile in the Haitian community...where do you go to next? The Liberals are running a very old school Haitian-born provincial MNA Dubourg from another non-overlapping riding who is a colourless former accountant. The NDP is running a young charismatic Haitian former pop star Stephane Moraille who recorded a hit with the group Bran Van 3000 and is now a lawyer specializing in intellectual property. Seems to me that for most people who were going to vote for "the ex hockey player" - the next best thing will be "the sexy pop star turned lawyer" not "the old school accountant".

Anyways, that's my two cents worth  

[Hatman 🍁]

The question is, where did Laraque's potential personal vote come from? Non voters? NDP supporters? Liberals?

My guess is mostly from non voters, but a sizable chunk from the NDP. But there's the question of how big that potential vote was- 5%? 10%? more?

[DL]

I agree that his actual support was never going to be all that high anyways - but with the Greens breaking their piggy bank in support of him - any votes he got were more likely to be from soft NDP 2011 voters than from anyone else. On top of that having him in the race would have created a distraction.

The fact is, the Liberals almost certainly have the largest pool of solid voters who will vote Liberal no matter what. They will not get less than 35%. It was in the Liberals interest for the vote to be split as many ways as possible. If the Green vote drops to 1% or 2% and if the Tory vote is 3% or 4% (which may be generous in Bourassa) and if the BQ vote drops to single digits (which is quite possible) - the danger for the Liberals is a two way race with the NDP where the NDP retains its 31% from 2011 and then hoovers up the soft remnant of the BQ vote and nips any Green growth in the bud....not saying it will happen - but the path to an NDP win in Bourassa starts with the Greens and the BQ running very weak campaigns and set up a two way fight.

[lilTommy]

My thinking is the Liberals then NDP will benefit from this, but the Liberals will breath the biggest sigh of relief. Now Quebec might be the odd man out here, but it seems like the Greens and Liberals are the closets, all you have to do is look at how Buddie-buddie May is with the Liberals. But (someone can correct me here) polls have said for green voters their second choice is pretty evenly split but favour the Liberals slightly.

I have to disagree. There might be something to your theory if this was a by-election in English Canada but this is Bourassa and there is a totally different dynamic at play there:

1. The Green Party as an actual organism is literally non-existent in Quebec. They have NOTHING, NADA - virtually no members, no donors, no real "brand". The provincial Greens got about 1% of the vote last year and federally the Greens typically poll in low single digits in Quebec - often VERY LOW single digits. May has no personal following in Quebec - particularly since quite frankly - she speaks French like my ass chews gum!

2. As non-existent as the Green party is in Quebec - it gets worse in a very low income multicultural riding like Bourassa. To the extent that the Green party has any "strongholds" at all anywhere in Canada - it's usually in ridings that have a lot of upper middle class, university educated, creative class types, who are rich enough not to care about "economic growth" and who dutifully fill their composters with kitchen scraps every day - many of those people are disaffected Liberals as opposed to NDPers. Green support tends to be almost  non-existent among working class people. Notice that they do particularly badly in places like Winnipeg North or run-down parts of Scarborough etc... I guarantee that a no name Green candidate in Bourassa would be lucky to beat the Rhinoceros party and get over 1% of the vote

3. The Liberal-Green swing vote that is marginally extant in English Canada really doesn't exist in Quebec. In Quebec (esp. in Montreal) there is one "traditional axis" and that is the old federalist/PLQ/LPC vs. sovereignist/BQ/PQ axis. People who are old line federalists and dyed in the wool big "L" Liberals in a riding like Bourassa are people who still buy into that "old dichotomy". Needless to say, when the NDP had its breakthrough in 2011 that shattered the old dichotomy...anyone who was seriously thinking of voting for Laraque as a Green in a riding like Bourassa would have already "crossed the rubicon" and entertained the possibility of exiting the old Lib/federalist vs PQ/sovereignist axis and was willing to vote for a "non-traditional" party...seems to me that if some traditionally Liberal Haitian immigrant was already ready to abandon the Liberal "DNA" and vote Green - going "orange" is only a small step next door. They have already taken the highway exit marked marked "goodbye to the old line parties" and if the first door off the exit ramp marked "Green" is suddenly locked - the very next door that is unlocked is marked "Orange"!

4. To the extent that Laraque was ever going get any significant level of support in Bourassa - it was 100% based on his personal fame and "star quality" and 0% on the Green Party or Elizabeth May. If you even look at his now defunct website - there was almost nothing about the environment and nothing about May - it was all about promoting him as a famous person! Well, if you are the kind of person in Bourassa who was considering voting Green for no other reason than that the candidate was a "star" and had been a pro hockey player and had a high profile in the Haitian community...where do you go to next? The Liberals are running a very old school Haitian-born provincial MNA Dubourg from another non-overlapping riding who is a colourless former accountant. The NDP is running a young charismatic Haitian former pop star Stephane Moraille who recorded a hit with the group Bran Van 3000 and is now a lawyer specializing in intellectual property. Seems to me that for most people who were going to vote for "the ex hockey player" - the next best thing will be "the sexy pop star turned lawyer" not "the old school accountant".

Anyways, that's my two cents worth  

Great insight; So this actually, if this pans-out to be true which it makes sense, gives greater hope to the NDP. But I also feel the Trudeau factor will play here as the "star-who-isn't-the-actual-candidate" and might pull some of those who were drawn to Laraque's personal star potential.

The BQ candidate is decent but an outsider and has baggage as already mentioned, and any new Green candidate will most likely be weak and any major green campaign is now pretty dead.

[Hatman 🍁]

The problem for the NDP in Toronto Centre and Bourassa, is that these are prime "Trudeau-Liberal" seats. They are urban progressive ridings- they care more about social values than economic issues, and are full of the types to fall for the Trudeau cult. If Jack were still around, these seats would be prime pick up opportunities.

[MaxQue]

The problem for the NDP in Toronto Centre and Bourassa, is that these are prime "Trudeau-Liberal" seats. They are urban progressive ridings- they care more about social values than economic issues, and are full of the types to fall for the Trudeau cult. If Jack were still around, these seats would be prime pick up opportunities.

Bourassa isn't an urban progressive riding, it's an immigrant area, parts of it are quite poor.

[DL]

Bourassa is the Montreal equivalent of really poor run-down postwar suburban Toronto ridings near the Jane-Finch corridor - like York West or Etobicoke North...

[Hatman 🍁]

The problem for the NDP in Toronto Centre and Bourassa, is that these are prime "Trudeau-Liberal" seats. They are urban progressive ridings- they care more about social values than economic issues, and are full of the types to fall for the Trudeau cult. If Jack were still around, these seats would be prime pick up opportunities.

Bourassa isn't an urban progressive riding, it's an immigrant area, parts of it are quite poor.

True, but an immigrant riding in Quebec is going to be a prime Trudeau Liberal seat as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, but more in a PET sense...

[DL]

Anyone in Bourassa who is already swept up by "Trudeau-mania" Mark 2 - is already voting Liberal and would not have given Georges Laraque any consideration.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone in Bourassa who is already swept up by "Trudeau-mania" Mark 2 - is already voting Liberal and would not have given Georges Laraque any consideration.

Yes. I never suggested Laraque voters are going to the Liberals. On the contrary.

[RogueBeaver]

The 4 federal ones will be on Nov. 25, just announced by PMO. Late November is becoming a by-election habit for the government.

[DL]

For the latest on the byelections (and especially on how the Green party probably unwisely bankrupted itself on the Laraque caper) read this http://www.punditsguide.ca/2013/10/by-election-slates-bourassa-bombshells-and-polls-out-monday/

[RogueBeaver]

Forum's out: 45-30 Freeland in TO Centre, 47-18 Dubourg in Bourassa, 39-36 Liberal in BS. No, latter's not a typo. 56-29 Tory in Provencher.

[RogueBeaver]

McQuaig challenged Freeland to a 1-1 debate on income inequality, which Freeland refused. More interestingly, Freeland inadvertently and publicly skewered her own leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Just visiting!

[RogueBeaver]

The 2 Assnat by-elections will be held Dec. 9. Couillard will run in Outremont, PQ won't oppose him.

[RogueBeaver]

Couillard will announce this afternoon, and Ted Menzies is resigning as MP effective immediately. Given the 37-day minimum plus wait for formal notification, looks like they'll get a new MP next year. So not too long a wait, considering the usual late January resumption.

[lilTommy]

Couillard will announce this afternoon, and Ted Menzies is resigning as MP effective immediately. Given the 37-day minimum plus wait for formal notification, looks like they'll get a new MP next year. So not too long a wait, considering the usual late January resumption.

He won MacLeod with 77% pretty sure this will be a no contest Tory win
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macleod_(electoral_district)

[DC Al Fine]

Couillard will announce this afternoon, and Ted Menzies is resigning as MP effective immediately. Given the 37-day minimum plus wait for formal notification, looks like they'll get a new MP next year. So not too long a wait, considering the usual late January resumption.

He won MacLeod with 77% pretty sure this will be a no contest Tory win
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macleod_(electoral_district)

Yeah, barring some right wing indy making a run, this is safe Tory.

[RogueBeaver]

Forgot to post this, but a certain firm has done federal polling. Just for the lulz.

[lilTommy]

http://abacusinsider.com/politics-public-affairs/battleground-toronto-centre/

"If we weight their data according to the age distribution based on Census figures, I get the following vote intention:
NDP = 39.7%
Liberal = 39.3%
Conservative = 16.1%"

If we weighted the Forum Poll results by estimated turnout by age from the 2011 election, the vote preference results are:
Liberal = 42%
NDP = 38%
CPC = 16%
GPC = 4%

Playing with the polls as the article did shows a much much closer race in TorCentre

[Hatman 🍁]

Coletto has sure been critical of other pollster's methods lately. He is right though, data should be weighted based on a turnout model of some sort (something he did not do with Nova Scotia though!). I think with a by-election young people are even less likely to vote, though- so weighing based on the federal election turnout isn't going to be completely accurate.

Another issue with polling Toronto Centre is that I'm sure it's harder polling the southern, less affluent part of the riding. However, turnout down there is going to be lower than in the north.