Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Possible NDP pickup, we did hold it in 1990.

[lilTommy]

Possible NDP pickup, we did hold it in 1990.

Definitely was a target in 2010, and very winnable today. The NDP had a very good candidate in a former Fort Erie mayor (Wayne Redekop). This will be a candidate/ground game win.
I've already heard jokes that Peter Shulman should run for the PCs

 

[adma]

Veteran Niagara Falls OLP MPP Kim Craitor has resigned effective immediately. Wynne promises a by-election within 6 months. Won by about 0.8% over the Tories 2 years ago, so a ripe pickup opportunity.

But given recent byelection momentum, plus geographic and economic factors, etc etc, the fact that the NDP came within 10 points (thus turning this into a technical three-way marginal!) might be of even greater importance than the Tories coming within 1 point.

Team Horwath must be salivating.  (And don't be surprised if the Libs land in third once again.)

[Smid]

(And don't be surprised if the Libs land in third once again.)

This is my opinion. I would expect it to be lost by them, but wouldn't want to try to guess who gains the seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Stephane Moraille has been nominated for the Dippers in Bourassa. Mulcair will campaign with her tomorrow.

[MaxQue]

Stephane Moraille has been nominated for the Dippers in Bourassa. Mulcair will campaign with him tomorrow.

Her, Rogue.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose "Stephane" like "Claude" can be either a male or female name, right?

[minionofmidas]

I suppose "Stephane" like "Claude" can be either a male or female name, right?

Not in French. Maybe in Québecois, though? (Anyways, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ9KfKx8PmM).

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like Freeland didn't leave her past job under the best of circumstances. Question is whether this breaks into our media.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cory Szczepanski wins the NDP nomination in Brandon-Souris. Perhaps a surprise, considering his opponent was the candidate in 2008 and 2011.

[Poirot]

The Bloc québécois has a candidate for Bourassa. Daniel Duranleau was a school board commissioner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve for a decade and president of the Montreal school board for a year before he quit last summer. He admits Montréal-Nord is not the neighbourhood in Montreal he knows best.

[lilTommy]

The Bloc québécois has a candidate for Bourassa. Daniel Duranleau was a school board commissioner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve for a decade and president of the Montreal school board for a year before he quit last summer. He admits Montréal-Nord is not the neighbourhood in Montreal he knows best.

Sounds like a strong candidate on paper... but would be a better candidate FOR Hochelaga.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc québécois has a candidate for Bourassa. Daniel Duranleau was a school board commissioner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve for a decade and president of the Montreal school board for a year before he quit last summer. He admits Montréal-Nord is not the neighbourhood in Montreal he knows best.

Sounds like a strong candidate on paper... but would be a better candidate FOR Hochelaga.

Given all the scandals about school boards recently, not at all.

[lilTommy]

The Bloc québécois has a candidate for Bourassa. Daniel Duranleau was a school board commissioner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve for a decade and president of the Montreal school board for a year before he quit last summer. He admits Montréal-Nord is not the neighbourhood in Montreal he knows best.

Sounds like a strong candidate on paper... but would be a better candidate FOR Hochelaga.

Given all the scandals about school boards recently, not at all.

There have been Council and School board scandals? wow, did not know that? what's the issue with the Board?

[Holmes]

Veteran Niagara Falls OLP MPP Kim Craitor has resigned effective immediately. Wynne promises a by-election within 6 months. Won by about 0.8% over the Tories 2 years ago, so a ripe pickup opportunity.

But given recent byelection momentum, plus geographic and economic factors, etc etc, the fact that the NDP came within 10 points (thus turning this into a technical three-way marginal!) might be of even greater importance than the Tories coming within 1 point.

Team Horwath must be salivating.  (And don't be surprised if the Libs land in third once again.)

An NDP win here would be more of the result of a wave. A good NDP showing here is second place.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc québécois has a candidate for Bourassa. Daniel Duranleau was a school board commissioner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve for a decade and president of the Montreal school board for a year before he quit last summer. He admits Montréal-Nord is not the neighbourhood in Montreal he knows best.

Sounds like a strong candidate on paper... but would be a better candidate FOR Hochelaga.

Given all the scandals about school boards recently, not at all.

There have been Council and School board scandals? wow, did not know that? what's the issue with the Board?

School boards are known in the previous years for harsh tax hikes and ridiculous expenses on head offices and leadership (like formation trips for the high leadership, brand new head offices, new computers every years), while cutting in schools, teachers and have schools with mold and leaky roofs.

Most likely, they will be abolished in the coming years.

[adma]

Veteran Niagara Falls OLP MPP Kim Craitor has resigned effective immediately. Wynne promises a by-election within 6 months. Won by about 0.8% over the Tories 2 years ago, so a ripe pickup opportunity.

But given recent byelection momentum, plus geographic and economic factors, etc etc, the fact that the NDP came within 10 points (thus turning this into a technical three-way marginal!) might be of even greater importance than the Tories coming within 1 point.

Team Horwath must be salivating.  (And don't be surprised if the Libs land in third once again.)

An NDP win here would be more of the result of a wave. A good NDP showing here is second place.

But you you could have said the same about Kitchener-Waterloo and London West--yet it didn't take "a wave" beyond the local to turn those ones.  And--trust me.  In raw terms, and even working around the "Redekop factor" in 2011's numbers, NF is even likelier than either of those two to turn, if the same dynamics were at play.  (And all the more so with the western adjacency of Kormosopia *ahem* Welland.)

[Holmes]

Well, we very well may experience an NDP wave come election time, and that was the beginning of the deluge. Who knows! Pre-election polling is worthless anyway so it's hard to tell.

[lilTommy]

Veteran Niagara Falls OLP MPP Kim Craitor has resigned effective immediately. Wynne promises a by-election within 6 months. Won by about 0.8% over the Tories 2 years ago, so a ripe pickup opportunity.

But given recent byelection momentum, plus geographic and economic factors, etc etc, the fact that the NDP came within 10 points (thus turning this into a technical three-way marginal!) might be of even greater importance than the Tories coming within 1 point.

Team Horwath must be salivating.  (And don't be surprised if the Libs land in third once again.)

An NDP win here would be more of the result of a wave. A good NDP showing here is second place.

But you you could have said the same about Kitchener-Waterloo and London West--yet it didn't take "a wave" beyond the local to turn those ones.  And--trust me.  In raw terms, and even working around the "Redekop factor" in 2011's numbers, NF is even likelier than either of those two to turn, if the same dynamics were at play.  (And all the more so with the western adjacency of Kormosopia *ahem* Welland.)

IF this is the only by-election (and the Liberals might want to hold another one ala KW & Vaughan; super safe liberal seat, so they can have a "moral" victory AND divert tory resources... possibly a riding like York Centre or Willowdale (who have older MPPs Kwinter and Zimmer)... The NDP is salivating at the possibility; since there is a base and a base-to-build-on in this mostly blue-collar area (except niagara-on-the-lake). I haven't heard anything about potential candidates but Redekop would be a good name to start with...

[DL]

Georges Laraque was forced to quit as the Green Party candidate in Bourassa after it was revealed today that he has been charged with theft and fraud! Not sure what impact this has on the race and who it helps...I don't think it does the BQ any good.

[Hatman 🍁]

Jerome Kennedy (MHA for Carbonear-Harbour Grace) resigned on Oct 2.

Jamie Korab (Olympic gold medalist curler) is seeking the nomination for the Liberals. As a curler myself, I wish him the best of luck, but not too much!

[Hatman 🍁]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

[Smid]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

[MaxQue]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

In Canada, by-elections are called by the PM.

[Smid]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

In Canada, by-elections are called by the PM.

In this case, Premier, but still - surely there is a Constitutional requirement of a maximum length of time a seat can remain empty?