Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

No matter what the result will be in TC, I can guarantee the NDP will win the majority of polls.

Why's that?

Well, the NDP won them last time.  If this thing boils down to a 2-horse race with the Tories in single digits, then expect the Liberals to hit 80% in many Rosedale polls. The NDP does terrible in Rosedale, and I can't see that changing this time. It'll act as a giant vote sink, while south of Bloor, the Liberals will hold their own, but lost most of the polls.

The key to an NDP victory is turnout. The demographics south of Bloor are very NDP-friendly, but they need those people to get out to vote and outnumber everyone north of Bloor. 

In the past, the riding was a write off for the NDP. Maybe because the riding used to be only between the Liberals and Tories, so left of centre voters went Liberal.

[adma]

However tokenly, I doubt the Tories will be reduced to single digits in TC; nor will the Libs be quite *that* high in Rosedale.  But it'll depend on *how* well the NDP does relative to the Grits re them winning more polls (and of course, what'd help is an assist from the Tories winning polls in Rosedale)

[Hatman 🍁]

However tokenly, I doubt the Tories will be reduced to single digits in TC; nor will the Libs be quite *that* high in Rosedale.  But it'll depend on *how* well the NDP does relative to the Grits re them winning more polls (and of course, what'd help is an assist from the Tories winning polls in Rosedale)

If this was a general election, I'd agree that the Tories would get at least 10%, but by-elections have a tendency to depress support parties that have no hope of winning. I'm sure many Tories in Rosedale will either stay home or hold their nose and vote Liberal.

[Krago]

[Hatman 🍁]

Windsor: Oh, Techumseh...
London: Wow, interesting to see the NDP making inroads in the west and north part of the riding.
Etobicoke: Yawn
Ottawa South: So, that's what a close race looks like here? I knew the NDP didn't win any polls (their campaign didn't seem to be interested in winning any). Fun to see the Tories winning in areas I've never seen them win before. Looks like my poll was comfortably Liberal despite going NDP federally. Oh well.

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of Toronto Centre: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/11/november-25-by-election-profiles.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Provencher profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/11/november-25-federal-by-election_23.html

[Krago]

However tokenly, I doubt the Tories will be reduced to single digits in TC; nor will the Libs be quite *that* high in Rosedale.  But it'll depend on *how* well the NDP does relative to the Grits re them winning more polls (and of course, what'd help is an assist from the Tories winning polls in Rosedale)

2011 Federal Election

Rosedale/Moore Park (17%)
LIB 46%, CONS 39%, NDP 11%, GRN 4%

Rest of Toronto Centre (83%)
LIB 40%, NDP 34%, CONS 19%, GRN 5%

[Meeker]

I haven't been following these closely, but from a glance at past results/current national polling I'm guessing anything other than four holds would be surprising?

[Hatman 🍁]

I haven't been following these closely, but from a glance at past results/current national polling I'm guessing anything other than four holds would be surprising?

Brandon-Souris is almost certainly going Liberal at this point. If you just look at past results this wouldn't make any sense. But the Liberals are running the son of a former PC MP, and there's other factors at play. (The riding was the only PC riding in Western Canada from 1997-2004, and it never elected a Reform / Canadian Alliance MP, also Justin Trudeaumania, etc)

There's an outside chance the NDP could win Toronto Centre. Polling is incredibly difficult there due to the demographics. Also an outside chance in Bourassa. ALSO, an outside chance the Liberals pick up Provencher.

[RogueBeaver]

Yes. Expect some closer-than-expected results if recent by-elections are any indication, any flips would be surprising.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though I would warn (again) that the record of constituency polling is lamentable just about everywhere. It's nice to have riding polls for these by-elections, but ought to take care...

[RogueBeaver]

Which is why we haven't posted the recent ones from a certain firm. My prediction is still a hold for all incumbents.

[Hatman 🍁]

And here I thought predicting a Liberal win in Brandon was a "safe" prediction.  But given polls RB, do you honestly think a Liberal win would be a "surprise"? You may think it won't happen, but thinking it wont be a surprise?

[DL]

Bourassa will be closer than people think - as much as I am a sceptic about Forum polls - I can't ignore that a week ago ther Liberals led the NDP 50% to 21% and as of yesterday the gap collapsed to 43% to 31%

[Citizen Hats]

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[MaxQue]

I also think than no seat will change hands.
I expect easy wins in Provencher (Conservative) and Toronto-Centre (Liberal), and close wins in Brandon-Souris (Conservative) and Bourassa (Coderre had an huge personnal vote).

[RogueBeaver]

I'm just very skeptical of Forum and riding polls generally, especially with Ottawa South (25 points off!) in mind. Calgary Centre had its own local controversies too. For now I'll wait and see. I'd be mildly surprised, not shocked or anything like that.

Dubourg suggests pot isn't a priority for Trudeau.

[Hatman 🍁]

In FR's defence, they mentioned how unreliable Ottawa South was in terms of polling before the by-election.

[King of Kensington]

Agreed... IF she wins, it wont be by much, like a 44-42 kind margin... I could see her win University-Rosedale and a shoe-in for the new Toronto Centre (but to me that feels more like a Howllett riding or one a minority candidate could/should be targeted to run in)

Jennifer Hollett is a better fit for the new Fort York riding.

[Citizen Hats]

The Tories had a lead in Calgary Centre Polling especially towards the end. Things weren't surprising from a polling standpoint

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the Liberals, and certainly the Greens underpolled in Calgary Centre, correct? That means bad news for the Tories in Brandon, and maybe even Provencher! Don't underestimate the power of by-elections.

[Citizen Hats]

I think the Liberals, and certainly the Greens underpolled in Calgary Centre, correct? That means bad news for the Tories in Brandon, and maybe even Provencher! Don't underestimate the power of by-elections.

Going through Grenier's records, it seems the polls were pretty close on the ball for everyone but the NDP in Calgary Centre, who fell bellow their lower bound, though in Victoria the Greens definitely underpolled

[Hatman 🍁]

I stand corrected. I remembered being surprised.

Anyways, here is my profile on Brandon-Souris: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/11/november-25-federal-by-election_25.html

[RogueBeaver]

I'm with Wells, as usual.