Canadian by-elections, 2013

[lilTommy]

Coletto has sure been critical of other pollster's methods lately. He is right though, data should be weighted based on a turnout model of some sort (something he did not do with Nova Scotia though!). I think with a by-election young people are even less likely to vote, though- so weighing based on the federal election turnout isn't going to be completely accurate.

Another issue with polling Toronto Centre is that I'm sure it's harder polling the southern, less affluent part of the riding. However, turnout down there is going to be lower than in the north.

Agreed; the GOTV will be crucial, especially for the NDP. They absolutely need their voters to vote, since the Liberal voters tend to be whiter, wealthier, older and in the North and are already the heavier voting group. The NDP have been changing their tactics the past week or so, attacking the Liberals in the House (the opposition day was about Keystone XL, a weak point for the Liberals) and their fluffy "Date with JT" night last night at $250 a pop got nothing bad bad press... oh and JT said when asked what other gov't do you admire the more, he most admires China's government... no, for real, he said that.

[RogueBeaver]

That sort of thing runs in the family.

[RogueBeaver]

A Tom Friedmanesque self-parody: ” You know,  there’s a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime and say ‘we need to go green  fastest…we need to start investing in solar.’ I mean there is a flexibility that I know Stephen Harper must dream about of having a dictatorship that he can do everything he wanted that I find quite interesting." Then saying that Yukon politics has no parties.

[RogueBeaver]

In TO Centre, both sides are finding plenty of interesting quotes in their candidates' columns. Chavez and Galloway admiration from McQuaig and Freeland calling Palin a "true feminist role model."

[Hatman 🍁]

Carbonear-Harbour Grace by-election called for November 26

[RogueBeaver]

Le Devoir on Bourassa.

[lilTommy]

NDP on the attach in both Bourassa and Toronto Centre

Freeland given the Iggy treatment... Too Funny! "Freeland hasn't lived here since This guy (Mel Lastman) was mayor"...
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/11/12/young-new-democrats-give-freeland-the-ignatieff-treatment/

Dubourg being called a member of “Club Privilège Libéral.” for taking 100K allowance
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-attacks-liberals-montreal-by-election-candidate-over-use-of-100000-allowance/article15404925/

[DL]

I think this is the week the wheels really went off the Trudeau bandwagon. Andrew Coyne - who actually voted Liberal in the last election described him in a column as a "ninny" (I looked up the word "ninny" in the dictionary...Webster's says it means "a foolish, stupid person"), then Jean Lapierre a high profile pundit in Montreal and ex-Liberal cabinet minister saw Trudeau speak in Bourassa in French and described it as the flattest, dullest worst political speech he had ever seen in his life!

Now, the ultimate "opinion leader" for the Toronto intelligentsia - Chantal Hebert wrote the following

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/11/13/justin_trudeau_still_making_rookie_mistakes_hbert.html

”On a bad day Ignatieff or Dion would have been hard-pressed to deliver a flatter stump speech than Trudeau did. Reading from notes the rookie leader delivered rambling remarks that belied his years on the public speaking circuit. If Trudeau wrote that text, he needs a speech writer. And if someone else wrote it, he or she needs a new assignment. In the unrelenting heat of a general election, Trudeau’s bizarre comments on China last week could have sent his campaign into a tailspin and his over-scripted performance in Bourassa would have reinforced the perception that he can only avoid putting his foot in his mouth by sticking to banalities"

[RogueBeaver]

They're all correct, but Trudeau's horserace numbers haven't moved. There's been no shortage of ink calling him an underqualified lightweight in different tones over the years. Polls show his weaknesses on policy and competency are priced in to a certain extent, like some recent Ipsos/Nanos polls showing the Liberals leading on not a single policy issue.

[DL]

We haven't seen much in the way of horse race numbers since Trudeau fell flat on his face lately...we shall see

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of Bourassa: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/11/november-25-federal-by-election.html

[Njall]

Dave Cournoyer on the candidates running for the Conservative nomination in Macleod.

[RogueBeaver]

Rae on Twitter: "NDP campaign in TO Centre can be reduced to class warfare and character assassination." How bleu of him.

[Hatman 🍁]

"Class warfare" might be a good strategy. It's possible that the riding has the highest gini coefficient in the country.

Interestingly Liberals tend to do well in ridings which lump really rich areas with really poor areas (Vancouver Quadra, Ottawa-Vanier, Westmount-Ville Marie)

[RogueBeaver]

Tim Harper's column today is about this. To me, McQuaig as generic NDP seems strange given what she's known for... but such is politics. She'd have a better shot in one of the new ridings, if she wants to run again.

[lilTommy]

"Class warfare" might be a good strategy. It's possible that the riding has the highest gini coefficient in the country.

Interestingly Liberals tend to do well in ridings which lump really rich areas with really poor areas (Vancouver Quadra, Ottawa-Vanier, Westmount-Ville Marie)

What areas are "poor" in Vancouver-Quadra? Musquem? Its not Kits (upper-middle, middle class) or Point Grey or Dunbar-Southlands? maybe the University Lands (students) but its still surrounded by million dollar homes.

But Liberals yes tend to do well in the "Old money" areas of cities like Montreal and Toronto; while the tories tend to do better in the newer money suburbs... and then other demographics that fluctuate to some degree like religious groups.

That's a great article about McCuaig actually; it might go some way to convince Liberals she not a fire brand... she reminds me of a female Svend Robinson; she has her own beliefs and that might show up from time to time but is a team player and wants to be...

Agreed... IF she wins, it wont be by much, like a 44-42 kind margin... I could see her win University-Rosedale and a shoe-in for the new Toronto Centre (but to me that feels more like a Howllett riding or one a minority candidate could/should be targeted to run in)

[Citizen Hats]

"Class warfare" might be a good strategy. It's possible that the riding has the highest gini coefficient in the country.

Interestingly Liberals tend to do well in ridings which lump really rich areas with really poor areas (Vancouver Quadra, Ottawa-Vanier, Westmount-Ville Marie)

I'm unaware of any really poor areas in Quadra, where I used to live, with the exception of Parts of Musqeum, and sadly there are no voters down there

[Hatman 🍁]

I stand corrected, I guess. But I did stay with a buddy in Kitsilano during the NDP convention a few years ago, and I remember the area not being the most well off. For example, he had to share a bathroom with another flat! But then again, it's still Vancouver and he was still paying an arm and a leg for his little apartment.

I guess the conclusion is that old money votes Liberal, and old money tends to be centrally located in cities, which means close to poorer areas.

[warandwar]

I stand corrected, I guess. But I did stay with a buddy in Kitsilano during the NDP convention a few years ago, and I remember the area not being the most well off. For example, he had to share a bathroom with another flat! But then again, it's still Vancouver and he was still paying an arm and a leg for his little apartment.

I guess the conclusion is that old money votes Liberal, and old money tends to be centrally located in cities, which means close to poorer areas.

My impression of Kits (I stayed with my uncle there for a couple of days) is of a fairly well off area. (I remember seeing Mr. Lululemon's ugly, gigantic house on a run)

[lilTommy]

I stand corrected, I guess. But I did stay with a buddy in Kitsilano during the NDP convention a few years ago, and I remember the area not being the most well off. For example, he had to share a bathroom with another flat! But then again, it's still Vancouver and he was still paying an arm and a leg for his little apartment.

I guess the conclusion is that old money votes Liberal, and old money tends to be centrally located in cities, which means close to poorer areas.

To be fair i think Kits, even with its ubber expensive housing, feels like a trendy Queen West or Riverdale area. being mostly working class, but a mix of renters and students/young people... " 21.3% of its population lives in low-income " and the average income is about 50K. Feels out of place in the greater Quadra riding. It almost deserves its own provincial riding with over 40K living in the area; it's also the best polls for the NDP as with Eby's win of the Van-Point Grey riding (hasn't been NDP since 96)
Could be wrong, that's my feel of the hood, my bf's sister lives there, that's the impression he gave me too

[Citizen Hats]

I stand corrected, I guess. But I did stay with a buddy in Kitsilano during the NDP convention a few years ago, and I remember the area not being the most well off. For example, he had to share a bathroom with another flat! But then again, it's still Vancouver and he was still paying an arm and a leg for his little apartment.

I guess the conclusion is that old money votes Liberal, and old money tends to be centrally located in cities, which means close to poorer areas.

To be fair i think Kits, even with its ubber expensive housing, feels like a trendy Queen West or Riverdale area. being mostly working class, but a mix of renters and students/young people... " 21.3% of its population lives in low-income " and the average income is about 50K. Feels out of place in the greater Quadra riding. It almost deserves its own provincial riding with over 40K living in the area; it's also the best polls for the NDP as with Eby's win of the Van-Point Grey riding (hasn't been NDP since 96)
Could be wrong, that's my feel of the hood, my bf's sister lives there, that's the impression he gave me too

All of the homes in Kits are owned by well off people, and over all the population is of above average to wealthy income. Most homeowners also rent out their basements, and there is a lot of rental housing for an originally single-family home neighborhood, and there are students who live there.  Much of that housing is sub-par, but I would argue that that isn't really an indication of poverty.  Living in Kitsilano is a choice. Even the students don't have to live there.  In effect, it's a luxury good, and if you chose to substitute high quality plumbing and proper insulation for neighborhood desirability, that's your choice to make.

I get far more housing for what I pay for living in Vancouver - East than I got living in Kitsilano, without there being a change in my income.  Am I richer? or have  I simply reallocated my consumption choices away from location and towards unit quality and disposable income.  All it costs me is loss of beach access and having Libby Davies as my MP

[DC Al Fine]

I stand corrected, I guess. But I did stay with a buddy in Kitsilano during the NDP convention a few years ago, and I remember the area not being the most well off. For example, he had to share a bathroom with another flat! But then again, it's still Vancouver and he was still paying an arm and a leg for his little apartment.

I guess the conclusion is that old money votes Liberal, and old money tends to be centrally located in cities, which means close to poorer areas.

To be fair i think Kits, even with its ubber expensive housing, feels like a trendy Queen West or Riverdale area. being mostly working class, but a mix of renters and students/young people... " 21.3% of its population lives in low-income " and the average income is about 50K. Feels out of place in the greater Quadra riding. It almost deserves its own provincial riding with over 40K living in the area; it's also the best polls for the NDP as with Eby's win of the Van-Point Grey riding (hasn't been NDP since 96)
Could be wrong, that's my feel of the hood, my bf's sister lives there, that's the impression he gave me too

All of the homes in Kits are owned by well off people, and over all the population is of above average to wealthy income. Most homeowners also rent out their basements, and there is a lot of rental housing for an originally single-family home neighborhood, and there are students who live there.  Much of that housing is sub-par, but I would argue that that isn't really an indication of poverty.  Living in Kitsilano is a choice. Even the students don't have to live there.  In effect, it's a luxury good, and if you chose to substitute high quality plumbing and proper insulation for neighborhood desirability, that's your choice to make.

I get far more housing for what I pay for living in Vancouver - East than I got living in Kitsilano, without there being a change in my income.  Am I richer? or have  I simply reallocated my consumption choices away from location and towards unit quality and disposable income.  All it costs me is loss of beach access and having Libby Davies as my MP

Seems like a high price to pay.

[Citizen Hats]

I attended the local BC Liberal Riding AGM a week ago (there were less than ten people). The Local Free-Enterprisers call my part of town the 'Communist Corridor'

[MaxQue]

The Local Free-Enterprisers

What a ridiculous name.
"Oligopoles and Big Corporations Friends", rather, would be more accurate.

[Citizen Hats]

The Local Free-Enterprisers

What a ridiculous name.
"Oligopoles and Big Corporations Friends", rather, would be more accurate.

I don't go around calling you the Union-Trog Party do I?