Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, to put up back on topic, tomorrow may bring surprises for the SNP. We have so far seen two clear trends. One, the Unionists know who is most viable in their seat and are consolidating not entirely but well enough. Two, the SNP are on average doing the same but better in their targets. There are quite a few Northeast, Edinburgh, and southern seats where marginal Unionist consolidation could top the SNP. So yeah, the fight continues to remain within the margins.

[bore]

Can we please keep the politics out the election threads? There are plenty of other spaces for that sort of stuff.

Anyway, to put up back on topic, tomorrow may bring surprises for the SNP. We have so far seen two clear trends. One, the Unionists know who is most viable in their seat and are consolidating not entirely but well enough. Two, the SNP are on average doing the same but better in their targets. There are quite a few Northeast, Edinburgh, and southern seats where marginal Unionist consolidation could top the SNP. So yeah, the fight continues to remain within the margins.

No idea where you're getting this from apart from maybe a desire for drama, there are two changes that are in any way consistent with the declared results so far, the snp losing perthshire south and the tories losing aberdeenshire west, and frankly even these don't look particularly likely.

[Oryxslayer]

Can we please keep the politics out the election threads? There are plenty of other spaces for that sort of stuff.

Anyway, to put up back on topic, tomorrow may bring surprises for the SNP. We have so far seen two clear trends. One, the Unionists know who is most viable in their seat and are consolidating not entirely but well enough. Two, the SNP are on average doing the same but better in their targets. There are quite a few Northeast, Edinburgh, and southern seats where marginal Unionist consolidation could top the SNP. So yeah, the fight continues to remain within the margins.

No idea where you're getting this from apart from maybe a desire for drama, there are two changes are in any way consistent with the declared results so far, the snp losing perthshire south and the tories losing aberdeenshire west, and frankly even these don't look particularly likely.

I'm getting it from my excel spreadsheat when compared to the results that have come in. Obviously no change is most likely, but its not like that's guaranteed.

[IceAgeComing]

What are these seats you are seeing as likely to change?  Other than the two that Bore mentioned the marginals have declared; certainly all the Edinburgh ones have.

[joevsimp]

What are these seats you are seeing as likely to change?  Other than the two that Bore mentioned the marginals have declared; certainly all the Edinburgh ones have.

of the remaining contituencies, Galloway and West Dumfriesshire, and Aberdeenshire West are likely to be held by the Tories but may still fall to the SNP. The Greens have targeted Glasgow Kelvin but it is a long shot.

The Greens are projected to gain five list seats once they are counted, and most of them will be at the expense of the 2nd 3rd or 4th seat in those regions from Lab or Con (LD list seat in North East should be reasonably safe)

[Geoffrey Howe]

What are these seats you are seeing as likely to change?  Other than the two that Bore mentioned the marginals have declared; certainly all the Edinburgh ones have.

of the remaining contituencies, Galloway and West Dumfriesshire, and Aberdeenshire West are likely to be held by the Tories but may still fall to the SNP. The Greens have targeted Glasgow Kelvin but it is a long shot.

The Greens are projected to gain five list seats once they are counted, and most of them will be at the expense of the 2nd 3rd or 4th seat in those regions from Lab or Con (LD list seat in North East should be reasonably safe)

Could a strong Green vote split the nationalists in Kelvin and pave the way to a Labour victory?

[joevsimp]

What are these seats you are seeing as likely to change?  Other than the two that Bore mentioned the marginals have declared; certainly all the Edinburgh ones have.

of the remaining contituencies, Galloway and West Dumfriesshire, and Aberdeenshire West are likely to be held by the Tories but may still fall to the SNP. The Greens have targeted Glasgow Kelvin but it is a long shot.

The Greens are projected to gain five list seats once they are counted, and most of them will be at the expense of the 2nd 3rd or 4th seat in those regions from Lab or Con (LD list seat in North East should be reasonably safe)

Could a strong Green vote split the nationalists in Kelvin and pave the way to a Labour victory?

Only if it splits perfectly ~30% each and labour can consolidate  nearly all of the Tory and libdem vote

[Geoffrey Howe]

What are these seats you are seeing as likely to change?  Other than the two that Bore mentioned the marginals have declared; certainly all the Edinburgh ones have.

of the remaining contituencies, Galloway and West Dumfriesshire, and Aberdeenshire West are likely to be held by the Tories but may still fall to the SNP. The Greens have targeted Glasgow Kelvin but it is a long shot.

The Greens are projected to gain five list seats once they are counted, and most of them will be at the expense of the 2nd 3rd or 4th seat in those regions from Lab or Con (LD list seat in North East should be reasonably safe)

Could a strong Green vote split the nationalists in Kelvin and pave the way to a Labour victory?

Only if it splits perfectly ~30% each and labour can consolidate  nearly all of the Tory and libdem vote

Unlikely then.

[Geoffrey Howe]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East, though unionist tactical voting gets the Tories within 5 points.

It looks like it's too much of a push to get the Tories over the line in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, but if the levels of tactical voting we've seen in Dumbarton, Edinburgh Western and elsewhere hold up, unionists could gain Pentlands and Perthshire South.

[jeron]

Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

Far and away the best result for the SNP in this seat with 41.9%. During regular elections they never got over 30%. Dissatisfaction over Brexit?

Not sure why dissatisfaction over Brexit would hurt the LDs. Longtime LD incumbent and former leader Tavish Scott retired a couple of years ago, and the incumbent LD MSP has only been there since a 2019 by-election (which also saw a big swing to the SNP, though not quite as large). Presumably the change is mainly caused by a loss of incumbency advantages.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

[beesley]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East, though unionist tactical voting gets the Tories within 5 points.

It looks like it's too much of a push to get the Tories over the line in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, but if the levels of tactical voting we've seen in Dumbarton, Edinburgh Western and elsewhere hold up, unionists could gain Pentlands and Perthshire South.

Highly doubt that given the result in Central. My father lived in that constituency for a lot of his life so I know the area well. Most of the inner areas have kept this in SNP hands and should do so today.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

Far and away the best result for the SNP in this seat with 41.9%. During regular elections they never got over 30%. Dissatisfaction over Brexit?

Not sure why dissatisfaction over Brexit would hurt the LDs. Longtime LD incumbent and former leader Tavish Scott retired a couple of years ago, and the incumbent LD MSP has only been there since a 2019 by-election (which also saw a big swing to the SNP, though not quite as large). Presumably the change is mainly caused by a loss of incumbency advantages.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

Isn't shetland also incredibly unionist? in terms of felling just as distant from Edinburgh as from london.

[jeron]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East, though unionist tactical voting gets the Tories within 5 points.

It looks like it's too much of a push to get the Tories over the line in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, but if the levels of tactical voting we've seen in Dumbarton, Edinburgh Western and elsewhere hold up, unionists could gain Pentlands and Perthshire South.

Highly doubt that given the result in Central. My father lived in that constituency for a lot of his life so I know the area well. Most of the inner areas have kept this in SNP hands and should do so today.

There isn't a uniform swing or tactical unionist voting in all constituencies. In Perthshire north the conservative vote only went up by 0.6% and the total share of the vote of the unionist parties went down.

[CumbrianLefty]

Salmond appears to have flopped even in his former stamping grounds.

[Geoffrey Howe]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East, though unionist tactical voting gets the Tories within 5 points.

It looks like it's too much of a push to get the Tories over the line in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, but if the levels of tactical voting we've seen in Dumbarton, Edinburgh Western and elsewhere hold up, unionists could gain Pentlands and Perthshire South.

Highly doubt that given the result in Central. My father lived in that constituency for a lot of his life so I know the area well. Most of the inner areas have kept this in SNP hands and should do so today.

Might well be the case. I was just saying that if the tactical voting seen elsewhere replicates itself, the SNP should lose.

[Geoffrey Howe]

David Mundell [former Scottish Secretary] accepts the SNP are going to win and he anticipates they will have a majority, as they will pick up some list seats.

[beesley]

Sounds as if the SNP will gain list seats in Highlands, South and West.

[Hnv1]

maybe it's time for unionist parties to form a joint front?

[jeron]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East, though unionist tactical voting gets the Tories within 5 points.

It looks like it's too much of a push to get the Tories over the line in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, but if the levels of tactical voting we've seen in Dumbarton, Edinburgh Western and elsewhere hold up, unionists could gain Pentlands and Perthshire South.

SNP hold on to Perthshire South. Con gain 2.8%, but SNP 3.3%. Increased SNP majority therefore

[Geoffrey Howe]

SNP hold Aberdeenshire East, though unionist tactical voting gets the Tories within 5 points.

It looks like it's too much of a push to get the Tories over the line in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, but if the levels of tactical voting we've seen in Dumbarton, Edinburgh Western and elsewhere hold up, unionists could gain Pentlands and Perthshire South.

SNP hold on to Perthshire South. Con gain 2.8%, but SNP 3.3%. Increased SNP majority therefore

Yep. Aberdeen South & North Kincardine was closer than I expected. Decent LD vote. I wish that had gone blue.

[IceAgeComing]

Dunno if you can really call 7% a 'decent Lib Dem vote' in the North East of Scotland; that's almost certainly their floor.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

An Independent stood in the by-election and got 11% of the vote and didn't stand this time; and the bulk of their votes (plus I suspect the 1.6% that went for the Greens in the by-election) clearly went to the SNP.  Every party had an increase in vote share from the by-election because of the fall in the number of candidates.

[beesley]

Dunno if you can really call 7% a 'decent Lib Dem vote' in the North East of Scotland; that's almost certainly their floor.

Looks as if the Lib Dems might not win any list seats.

[jeron]

Dunno if you can really call 7% a 'decent Lib Dem vote' in the North East of Scotland; that's almost certainly their floor.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

An Independent stood in the by-election and got 11% of the vote and didn't stand this time; and the bulk of their votes (plus I suspect the 1.6% that went for the Greens in the by-election) clearly went to the SNP.  Every party had an increase in vote share from the by-election because of the fall in the number of candidates.

That is still no answer to my question whether the SNP overperformance could be due to problems with Brexit.... And apparently SNP beat LibDems on the list vote, which is the first time the LibDems did not win Shetland since 1950!

[Lord Halifax]

David Mundell [former Scottish Secretary] accepts the SNP are going to win and he anticipates they will have a majority, as they will pick up some list seats.

Does he mean on their own? I thought that was more or less out of the question after Dumbarton (unless they win Aberdeen West).

[Oryxslayer]

David Mundell [former Scottish Secretary] accepts the SNP are going to win and he anticipates they will have a majority, as they will pick up some list seats.

Does he mean on their own? I thought that was more or less out of the question after Dumbarton (unless they win Aberdeen West).

And its unlikely they win that seat after the swings in the other Northeast seats. Robertson always said a "pro-independence majority" when he was interviewed on BBC, aka no SNP majority without the greens.