Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Gary JG]

Off topic but how close and what is needed and likely for a English assembly that is like the Scottish one

Not very likely. The context of the original Anglo-Scottish Union was that Scotland got economic advantages and England ensured that Scotland would not be a hostile foreign threat. Time has largely erased that context.

I think the problem, from the point of view of UK level politicians, is that an English Parliament and Government (with comparable powers to the Scottish equivalents) would be over mighty subjects. The English First Minister might well wonder why we keep all these useless Westminster parasites, when it is the English authorities who carry out all the governmental functions most people care about in England.

I could easily see the English level authorities dissolving the Union, if they see no real advantage in its continuing. Something might happen rather comparable to Boris Yeltsin, as the leader of Russia, humiliating Mikhail Gorbachev in the last days of the Soviet Union.

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391121713484685312

[Lord Halifax]

Off topic but how close and what is needed and likely for a English assembly that is like the Scottish one

Not very likely. The context of the original Anglo-Scottish Union was that Scotland got economic advantages and England ensured that Scotland would not be a hostile foreign threat. Time has largely erased that context.

I think the problem, from the point of view of UK level politicians, is that an English Parliament and Government (with comparable powers to the Scottish equivalents) would be over mighty subjects. The English First Minister might well wonder why we keep all these useless Westminster parasites, when it is the English authorities who carry out all the governmental functions most people care about in England.

I could easily see the English level authorities dissolving the Union, if they see no real advantage in its continuing. Something might happen rather comparable to Boris Yeltsin, as the leader of Russia, humiliating Mikhail Gorbachev in the last days of the Soviet Union.

What about going the German route and dividing England into a number of "länder" loosely based on the old Anglo-Saxon kingdoms: Northumbria, Mercia, Wessex, Sussex, Kent and East Anglia-Essex and let (Greater) London be a separate state like Berlin? Afaik none of those would have a bigger share of the UK's population than NRW's of the German.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could then simply be states with slightly more autonomy than the rest (or perhaps only Scotland). Cornwall has a population the size of Bremen and could also be it's own state. It seems to work fine in Germany that the size of the states vary widely.

[Conservatopia]

Off topic but how close and what is needed and likely for a English assembly that is like the Scottish one

Not very likely. The context of the original Anglo-Scottish Union was that Scotland got economic advantages and England ensured that Scotland would not be a hostile foreign threat. Time has largely erased that context.

I think the problem, from the point of view of UK level politicians, is that an English Parliament and Government (with comparable powers to the Scottish equivalents) would be over mighty subjects. The English First Minister might well wonder why we keep all these useless Westminster parasites, when it is the English authorities who carry out all the governmental functions most people care about in England.

I could easily see the English level authorities dissolving the Union, if they see no real advantage in its continuing. Something might happen rather comparable to Boris Yeltsin, as the leader of Russia, humiliating Mikhail Gorbachev in the last days of the Soviet Union.

What about going the German route and dividing England into a number of "länder" loosely based on the old Anglo-Saxon kingdoms: Northumbria, Mercia, Wessex, Sussex, Kent and East Anglia-Essex and let (Greater) London be a separate state like Berlin? Afaik none of those would have a bigger share of the UK's population than NRW's of the German.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could then simply be states with slightly more autonomy than the rest (or perhaps only Scotland). Cornwall has a population the size of Bremen and could also be it's own state. It seems to work fine in Germany that the size of the states vary widely.

Using the current English regions would be simpler.  When I was in school I was obsessed with the idea of British federalism (to an extent I still am) and I once made a map that was similar to what you describe but used the current South East region to form a province awkwardly named "Thames & Solent".

To pacify those who would see it as breaking up England the constitutional long forms of the province names could include the word England like "English Province of Wessex" or whatever.

[Frodo]

Final seats
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391113844752326657

-----

We all knew this was coming:

Scottish nationalists vow independence vote after election win

[cp]

A fairly banal result, all told. Nothing to be thrilled about, but I'm glad all the good guys made gains.

[Conservatopia]

A fairly banal result, all told. Nothing to be thrilled about, but I'm glad all the good guys made gains.

Yes I too was glad that the Tories gained in vote share.  It's nice isn't it?

[jeron]

A fairly banal result, all told. Nothing to be thrilled about, but I'm glad all the good guys made gains.

Yes I too was glad that the Tories gained in vote share.  It's nice isn't it?

The only real winners are the Greens and the losers are Labour and of course Salmond.

[beesley]

Labour's performance wasn't great but it was respectable and probably better than Leonard would've done.

Only seven MSPs actually lost their seats: John Scott, Maurice Corry and Gordon Lindhurst for the Tories, James Kelly and Claudia Beamish for Labour, and Joan McAlpine and Paul Wheelhouse for the SNP, all of whom were effectively replaced by another MSP for their party in their region.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391121713484685312

SNP 40.3, Greens 8.1 and Alba 1.7 = 50.1%, a majority for the pro-independence parties.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391121713484685312

SNP 40.3, Greens 8.1 and Alba 1.7 = 50.1%, a majority for the pro-independence parties.

Odd; the unionists were ahead (majority) in the constituency results. In any case it's far too close for my liking.

The consolation is that unionists clearly understand tactical voting and seem pretty well concerned by independence - hence they will vote for a different unionist party. Hopefully that leads to good turnout from them in a referendum.

[cp]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391121713484685312

SNP 40.3, Greens 8.1 and Alba 1.7 = 50.1%, a majority for the pro-independence parties.

Odd; the unionists were ahead (majority) in the constituency results. In any case it's far too close for my liking.

The consolation is that unionists clearly understand tactical voting and seem pretty well concerned by independence - hence they will vote for a different unionist party. Hopefully that leads to good turnout from them in a referendum.

If their best coordinated effort at tactical voting produced either a bare majority or failed to secure one, I wouldn't get your hopes up about unionist prospects in an imminent referendum.

[Cassius]

It’s pretty dubious if you ask me to treat the Scottish Parliament vote as a proxy for an independence referendum. Whilst it’s probable that 99%+ of those who voted for the Tories/Alba will also vote for that party’s preferred constitutional position in a referendum, for the others it’s more open to question as to whether 99%+ of their voters would back their party’s preferred position. More to the point, as far as I’m aware the polling done on whether there should be a referendum in the near future at all suggests a relative lack of enthusiasm for one, so I think it’s pretty clear that these results point more towards to broad satisfaction with the SNP’s performance in government (and increased support for the Greens due to the rising salience of environmental issues) than a desire for a rapid referendum.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It’s pretty dubious if you ask me to treat the Scottish Parliament vote as a proxy for an independence referendum. Whilst it’s probable that 99%+ of those who voted for the Tories/Alba will also vote for that party’s preferred constitutional position in a referendum, for the others it’s more open to question as to whether 99%+ of their voters would back their party’s preferred position. More to the point, as far as I’m aware the polling done on whether there should be a referendum in the near future at all suggests a relative lack of enthusiasm for one, so I think it’s pretty clear that these results point more towards to broad satisfaction with the SNP’s performance in government (and increased support for the Greens due to the rising salience of environmental issues) than a desire for a rapid referendum.

Quite possibly - given the incumbency effect we’ve seen around COVID. I hope at least.

[jaichind]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

[Pericles]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

To be fair they did say they would have a referendum if they won the election this time, and then won the election. However there is a serious risk of an extremely narrow Yes vote, which could be extremely divisive and cause massive disruption (Scittish independence is worse economically than Brexit, Brexit should be a warning not a boost for independence)

[Geoffrey Howe]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

To be fair they did say they would have a referendum if they won the election this time, and then won the election. However there is a serious risk of an extremely narrow Yes vote, which could be extremely divisive and cause massive disruption (Scittish independence is worse economically than Brexit, Brexit should be a warning not a boost for independence)

Finally! Someone who understands (= agrees with me) on this!

[StateBoiler]

One giant nothing changed election. 3 constituency seats flipped, with SNP winning all of them.

[Cassius]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

The last election was a couple of months prior to the EU referendum, so the SNP didn’t have the fig leaf of a ‘material change in circumstances’ to cover the demand for a second referendum. Once the country voted to leave, the SNP began trotting that line out, only to go silent on the subject after the 2017 general election given the massive reverse they suffered that year, falling from 50 to 37 percent of the vote and losing 21 seats.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

The last election was a couple of months prior to the EU referendum, so the SNP didn’t have the fig leaf of a ‘material change in circumstances’ to cover the demand for a second referendum. Once the country voted to leave, the SNP began trotting that line out, only to go silent on the subject after the 2017 general election given the massive reverse they suffered that year, falling from 50 to 37 percent of the vote and losing 21 seats.

It seems to me that by the SNP’s logic every time there is a major change ‘in circumstances’ there should be a referendum. So a referendum on the union every few years?
If they vote Yes maybe a referendum to rejoin every few years?

Anyway, what position would the EU take on an independent Scotland’s budget deficit? Does each country have a veto - if they do, then I can see a PP-governed Spain vetoing.

[beesley]

When I earlier argued that it would be hypocritical for the Tories to block a referendum from Westminster, I did so with no particular regard for the SNP and the way they operate, but if this isn't a mandate for a second independence referendum, it's hard to see what is. Although you could argue that it's unknown whether all SNP and Green supporters actually support independence, that argument isn't particularly relevant to parliamentary representative democracy.

[jeron]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

The last election was a couple of months prior to the EU referendum, so the SNP didn’t have the fig leaf of a ‘material change in circumstances’ to cover the demand for a second referendum. Once the country voted to leave, the SNP began trotting that line out, only to go silent on the subject after the 2017 general election given the massive reverse they suffered that year, falling from 50 to 37 percent of the vote and losing 21 seats.

Brexit, and the so called hard brexit in particular, handed the SNP the argument for a second referendum on a silver platter. And of course Sturgeon accepted the gift (who would not have done so?) and frankly Johnson and the Tory rightwing hardly have a valid argument to deny them a second referendum now.

[Agafin]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

The last election was a couple of months prior to the EU referendum, so the SNP didn’t have the fig leaf of a ‘material change in circumstances’ to cover the demand for a second referendum. Once the country voted to leave, the SNP began trotting that line out, only to go silent on the subject after the 2017 general election given the massive reverse they suffered that year, falling from 50 to 37 percent of the vote and losing 21 seats.

Brexit, and the so called hard brexit in particular, handed the SNP the argument for a second referendum on a silver platter. And of course Sturgeon accepted the gift (who would not have done so?) and frankly Johnson and the Tory rightwing hardly have a valid argument to deny them a second referendum now.

The fact that they were allowed a referendum less than a decade ago seems like a good enough reason to me. Can you name me any country which routinely allows an integral and important part of it to hold an independence referendum every few years (or even  a single one at all)?

[cp]

I am not sure I get the SNP logic on mandate for referendum.    In 2016 SNP+Greens also had a majority yet I did not see SNP claim back then there was a need for a second referendum yet this time SNP+Greens having a majority justifies a referendum ?

The last election was a couple of months prior to the EU referendum, so the SNP didn’t have the fig leaf of a ‘material change in circumstances’ to cover the demand for a second referendum. Once the country voted to leave, the SNP began trotting that line out, only to go silent on the subject after the 2017 general election given the massive reverse they suffered that year, falling from 50 to 37 percent of the vote and losing 21 seats.

Brexit, and the so called hard brexit in particular, handed the SNP the argument for a second referendum on a silver platter. And of course Sturgeon accepted the gift (who would not have done so?) and frankly Johnson and the Tory rightwing hardly have a valid argument to deny them a second referendum now.

The fact that they were allowed a referendum less than a decade ago seems like a good enough reason to me. Can you name me any country which routinely allows an integral and important part of it to hold an independence referendum every few years (or even  a single one at all)?

Québec held independence referendums in 1980 and 1995, the latter having been promised by the Parti Québecois as early as 1988; they lost the 1989 election so had to wait until after they won in 1994 to put it into effect.

By the time the SNP/Greens get around to holding the next referendum it'll have been at least 7-8 years since the last one. Also worth noting that the latter referendum in Québec followed from the eventually-unsuccessful but massive effort at constitutional reform (the Meech Lake Accords) initiated by the federal PC party in 1987, a nice parallel to Brexit. Point being, if you're looking for a precedent, you've got one.

On a different note, if the objection to holding another referendum on independence so soon after the last is that there's a kind of moral hazard in doing so, I'd counter that it's far more dangerous to a country's democratic integrity if it denies such requests than if it grants them.

[CumbrianLefty]

So, what now for Scottish Labour?

The good news is that their historic decline seems to have finally bottomed out (this election will have seen the last of the "legacy" vote from when they were Scotland's hegemonic party dissipating)

The bad is that despite the rave reviews Sarwar has been getting they didn't actually make progress (and of course some on the party's left are drawing the predictable "conclusions" about that)