2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191422 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1000 on: September 01, 2020, 06:20:44 PM »
Good, the quality polls are finally coming to put us out of our misery and cut through the noise! I don't even care what they say, I just want a more accurate idea of what the hell is happening with this race!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1001 on: September 01, 2020, 06:46:39 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on September 01, 2020, 06:12:23 PM


Last poll in April had Biden up 4.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1002 on: September 01, 2020, 06:47:01 PM »

Not sure if I'm a fan of them polling through the Labor Day weekend.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1003 on: September 01, 2020, 07:01:00 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 01, 2020, 06:46:39 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on September 01, 2020, 06:12:23 PM


Last poll in April had Biden up 4.

This poll had Trump's approval rating at +3 so i'm not expecting too much out of this one.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1004 on: September 01, 2020, 07:01:37 PM »
I just *know* Monmouth is gonna pull another GA or IA and have a sh**tty sample and have it like Biden +3 and give us all heartburn
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #1005 on: September 01, 2020, 07:02:37 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 01, 2020, 07:01:37 PM
I just *know* Monmouth is gonna pull another GA or IA and have a sh**tty sample and have it like Biden +3 and give us all heartburn
Lmao.. poll hasn't even been released yet and you're already disregarding it.

And you label me dense.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1006 on: September 01, 2020, 08:55:32 PM »
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1007 on: September 01, 2020, 09:06:17 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on September 01, 2020, 08:55:32 PM


Finally. Lets see if it conforms to the flimsier post-convention polls, or if it differs because of its quality.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #1008 on: September 01, 2020, 09:21:05 PM »
How do ya'll feel about Trump leading a few polls in NH?
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Horus
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« Reply #1009 on: September 01, 2020, 09:26:39 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2020, 09:29:50 PM by Horus »
I'm guessing 48-43 Biden for the Selzer poll. Outside the MoE, a point better than their last release, but close enough for us all to panic.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1010 on: September 01, 2020, 10:22:49 PM »
Quote from: #JokeMala on September 01, 2020, 09:21:05 PM
How do ya'll feel about Trump leading a few polls in NH?

There have been three New Hampshire polls since June, and Biden has lead in all of them.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #1011 on: September 01, 2020, 10:47:10 PM »
Biden will lead by 5 or more in both of them IMO
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Buzz
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« Reply #1012 on: September 02, 2020, 01:18:27 AM »
Biden is going to lead the Monmouth Poll by 11 and the Grinnell poll by 8.  This is all too predictable.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1013 on: September 02, 2020, 06:47:00 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on September 02, 2020, 01:18:27 AM
Biden is going to lead the Monmouth Poll by 11 and the Grinnell poll by 8.  This is all too predictable.

I don't often agree with you, but I'll acknowledge you hit the Grinnell/Selzer margin on the nose.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1014 on: September 02, 2020, 08:10:47 AM »
New Fox News poll later today apparently
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1015 on: September 02, 2020, 08:49:23 AM »
Quote from: forza nocta on September 02, 2020, 08:10:47 AM
New Fox News poll later today apparently

Nice.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1016 on: September 02, 2020, 08:51:26 AM »
Reminder of the last Monmouth poll from July 9-13:

RV: Biden 53 - Trump 40
Higher likely turnout: Biden 52 - Trump 42
Lower likely turnout: Biden 51 - Trump 44

So they had Biden +7, +10, and +13 based on model
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1017 on: September 02, 2020, 09:09:30 AM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on September 01, 2020, 01:32:50 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 01, 2020, 01:27:41 PM
Quote from: The Other Castro on September 01, 2020, 01:01:54 PM


Oh god, can't wait for the meltdowns b/c you know they'll have it like Biden +4

Yea probably 48-44 biden

It's Monmouth so it'll probably be something stupidly good for Biden like +8.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1018 on: September 02, 2020, 09:20:46 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on September 02, 2020, 09:09:30 AM
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on September 01, 2020, 01:32:50 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 01, 2020, 01:27:41 PM
Quote from: The Other Castro on September 01, 2020, 01:01:54 PM


Oh god, can't wait for the meltdowns b/c you know they'll have it like Biden +4

Yea probably 48-44 biden

It's Monmouth so it'll probably be something stupidly good for Biden like +8.

Depends, their PA poll was D-leaning but GA and IA polls were definitely R-leaning
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Buzz
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« Reply #1019 on: September 02, 2020, 10:05:45 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 02, 2020, 06:47:00 AM
Quote from: Buzz on September 02, 2020, 01:18:27 AM
Biden is going to lead the Monmouth Poll by 11 and the Grinnell poll by 8.  This is all too predictable.

I don't often agree with you, but I'll acknowledge you hit the Grinnell/Selzer margin on the nose.

Haha well I missed the Monmouth result by 7 points, so I’ve lost my credence.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1020 on: September 02, 2020, 10:48:00 AM »
Q-Pac is coming today as well.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #1021 on: September 02, 2020, 11:28:21 AM »

National or state poll?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1022 on: September 02, 2020, 11:36:33 AM »

National
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1023 on: September 02, 2020, 11:37:41 AM »

It will show something like Biden +8 and everyone will be "OMG, BIDEN COLLAPSING!!!" because their previous poll was +15.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1024 on: September 02, 2020, 11:47:46 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on September 02, 2020, 11:37:41 AM

It will show something like Biden +8 and everyone will be "OMG, BIDEN COLLAPSING!!!" because their previous poll was +15.

They typically jump back and forth as well. Two consecutive polls going in the same direction is rare for them.
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