🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1433460506514366465

Infratest/Dimap-poll

SPD: 25% (+4)
Union: 20% (-3)
GRÜNE: 16% (-1)
FDP: 13%
AfD: 12% (+1)
LINKE: 6% (-1)
Sonstige: 8%

[Continential]

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Animal welfare party
(76.7%)
76.7%

The humanists
(76.7%)
76.7%


PIRATES
(75.6%)
75.6%


V party³
(74.4%)
74.4%


GREEN
(68.9%)
68.9%


PdF
(68.9%)
68.9%


SSW
(67.8%)
67.8%


volt
(67.8%)
67.8%


DiB
(66.7%)
66.7%


Team Todenhöfer
(65.6%)
65.6%


The party
(65.6%)
65.6%


FDP
(65.6%)
65.6%


Health research
(64.4%)
64.4%


THE LEFT
(64.4%)
64.4%


ÖDP
(64.4%)
64.4%


LfK
(64.4%)
64.4%


Animal Welfare Alliance
(63.3%)
63.3%


SPD
(63.3%)
63.3%


you.
(62.2%)
62.2%


FREE VOTERS
(62.2%)
62.2%


MLPD
(61.1%)
61.1%


SGP
(61.1%)
61.1%


CDU / CSU
(57.8%)
57.8%


DKP
(56.7%)
56.7%


LOVE
(52.2%)
52.2%


The grays
(50%)
50%


CIVIL MOVEMENT
(48.9%)
48.9%


INDEPENDENT
(47.8%)
47.8%


Alliance C
(46.7%)
46.7%


the base
(46.7%)
46.7%


HUMAN WORLD
(46.7%)
46.7%


BP
(45.6%)
45.6%


LKR
(45.6%)
45.6%


ALLIANCE21
(45.6%)
45.6%


BüSo
(40%)
40%


AfD
(36.7%)
36.7%


III. path
(26.7%)
26.7%


NPD
(26.7%)
26.7%

My results, and I got Animal Welfare first for some reason

[President Johnson]

Oh. my. lord. I love this timeline. CDU is in total disarray and Laschet's numbers are beyond pathetic.


Some more numbers from the Infratest survey:

Chancellor preference:




Most likeable and most authentic:




Strongest leader:




Most competent:



https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2735.html

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Extremely happy that SDP is going to win this. The Germans are making the right choice, punishing corrupt and elitarian boring politicians like Baerbock and Laschet, and going for someone competent, pragmatic and caring as Scholz. I certainly support SDP even if i didn't like them during most of my life.

[President Johnson]

Just did the Wahl-O-Mat:

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The victories in Peru and Germany and the two Democratically elected senators in Georgia would single-handedly make 2021 not the worst year ever. Despite it being quite bad in terms of non-election events.

I know the election has yet to happen, but I think the only way from now on is up, because SPD is now seen as a viable candidate party, and given Scholz is very popular, and that many people have yet to decide. They probably break 30%. Some Greens and Linke voters might change from ship too, but we will see.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Extremely happy that SDP is going to win this. The Germans are making the right choice, punishing corrupt and elitarian boring politicians like Baerbock and Laschet, and going for someone competent, pragmatic and caring as Scholz. I certainly support SDP even if i didn't like them during most of my life.

Of course, corruption and elitarianism are totally unheard of in relation to Cum-ex-Olaf respectively Hartz-IV-Olaf...

[Continential]

Some Greens and Linke voters might change from ship too, but we will see.

I am surprised that you want Die Linke to fall below 5%.

[President Johnson]

The victories in Peru and Germany and the two Democratically elected senators in Georgia would single-handedly make 2021 not the worst year ever. Despite it being quite bad in terms of non-election events.

I know the election has yet to happen, but I think the only way from now on is up, because SPD is now seen as a viable candidate party, and given Scholz is very popular, and that many people have yet to decide. They probably break 30%. Some Greens and Linke voters might change from ship too, but we will see.

I wouldn't want to make a call at this point either. If the numbers don't move to Scholz' disadvantage until mid September, I don't see how Laschet is turning it around. Vote by mail is already beginning and will be at a record high this year, especially due to the pandemic (it was increasing even before). The Greens are probably out for good in the race for chancellor, though Baerbock has excellent chances to become foreign minister and vice chancellor in the next government regardless of who comes out on top.

If Scholz becomes chancellor, 2021 is probably the best year for me personally, as three individuals have become head of government that I all wanted since 2019. Back then, I twice voted for Scholz in the race for party leader and I obviously was for Joe Biden ever since he announced his presidential bid. And you can back to my posts from 2019, I wanted to Kathy Hochul to succeed Cuomo as governor even then.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Extremely happy that SDP is going to win this. The Germans are making the right choice, punishing corrupt and elitarian boring politicians like Baerbock and Laschet, and going for someone competent, pragmatic and caring as Scholz. I certainly support SDP even if i didn't like them during most of my life.

Of course, corruption and elitarianism are totally unheard of in relation to Cum-ex-Olaf respectively Hartz-IV-Olaf...

Genosse Olaf is a means, not an end.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

According to Wahl-O-Mat, I am *checks notes* somehow a left-wing Catholic conservative

[Yeahsayyeah]

Extremely happy that SDP is going to win this. The Germans are making the right choice, punishing corrupt and elitarian boring politicians like Baerbock and Laschet, and going for someone competent, pragmatic and caring as Scholz. I certainly support SDP even if i didn't like them during most of my life.

Of course, corruption and elitarianism are totally unheard of in relation to Cum-ex-Olaf respectively Hartz-IV-Olaf...

Genosse Olaf is a means, not an end.

Yeah, probably. I took from Laki's words that he percieves him as an end.

[President Johnson]

By the way, I wonder how the CSU will perform in Bavaria if these numbers hold up or don't move that much anymore? In the end, it could very well show that Söder is a paper tiger, especially with a result of 35% or even less. Remember that Horst Seehofer basically had to resign as Minister-President and "rescue" himself as Interior Minister after the CSU ended up with 38% in the 2017 federal election. A result, that was considered a fullscale debacle at the time and helped Söder to take over the job as Bavaria's chief executive. A year later, Söder himself was responsible for one of the worst CSU result in a state election, just (by CSU standards) winning 37% of the vote.

[Astatine]

By the way, I wonder how the CSU will perform in Bavaria if these numbers hold up or don't move that much anymore? In the end, it could very well show that Söder is a paper tiger, especially with a result of 35% or even less. Remember that Horst Seehofer basically had to resign as Minister-President and "rescue" himself as Interior Minister after the CSU ended up with 38% in the 2017 federal election. A result, that was considered a fullscale debacle at the time and helped Söder to take over the job as Bavaria's chief executive. A year later, Söder himself was responsible for one of the worst CSU result in a state election, just (by CSU standards) winning 37% of the vote.

INSA polls CDU and CSU separately sometimes and had CDU at 18 % (2017: 26.8 %) with CSU at 5 % (2017: 6.2 %) in their 23/08 poll. So while this would mean a slight decrease in CSU's vote share, its influence within the incoming CDU/CSU parliamentary group would increase.

[parochial boy]

I did Wahl-o-mat too. Forgot the exact percentages but it was:

Linke
Greens
Die Partei
SPD
FDP (eww)
Union
AFD

By the way, you guys need to get rid of the eszett, it makes everything unreadable. Ich Weiß, lol.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Got given the
Greens
FDP
Linke
SPD
CDU

[Astatine]

By the way, you guys need to get rid of the eszett, it makes everything unreadable. Ich Weiß, lol.

ßtop playing, parochial boy

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way, you guys need to get rid of the eszett, it makes everything unreadable. Ich Weiß, lol.

ßtop playing, parochial boy

As they say, ignorance is bliß.

[President Johnson]

And... another day, another two polls with the SPD leading. Now with multiple pollsters having basically the same numbers confirms the state of the race as of now: The Union is stuck in the 20-22% range while the SPD is around 25%. The Greens are probably around 15-18% at this point.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1433662915068977152

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1433834710879379471


Chancellor preference. Genosse Olaf is DOMINATING. That's his biggest lead so far:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1433714407146729476

[Jackson Lee]

Looking at the Chancellor support, I wouldn’t be surprised if Scholz/SPD get 30% in the end.

Or close to.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Scholz’s preferred chancellor leads are insane. When are the attacks going to start coming?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Scholz’s preferred chancellor leads are insane. When are the attacks going to start coming?

They've started already, they just don't seem to be very effective. Laschet has repeatedly attacked Scholz for not explicitly stating that he would not enter a coalition with the Linke. The Union has tried to portray Scholz as a closeted leftist OR as someone who would invite leftists into the government OR as someone who is secretly controlled by the leftists within the SPD. So far, few have found that convincing.

[DL]

If present trends continue and the SPD rises up to the high-20s on the strength of Scholz's immense personal popularity - at whose expense does the SPD gain ground? I have to think that at 20% the CDU is near its floor - so the next most logical source of SPD votes would be from the Greens since even after some slippage they are still polling about 6-7 points about their usual level of support and I'll bet a lot of that inflated Green vote is from left of centre people who used to be SPD voters.

[Former President tack50]

Couldn't some new low impact ministeries be devised if Linke were to be part of the government. You know, make a Linke person Minister of Fitness and Amateur Sport and another can be Minister of the Arts or Roads and Highways

Like others said, Germany doesn't work that way, but that is what Pedro Sánchez did here when he gave Podemos cabinet ministries. Just give them a bunch of useless do-nothing ministries that have one useful purpose at best.

[Former President tack50]

Decided to do the Wahl-o-Mat and this has to be the weirdest result I've had in a political test ever, it's not even particularly close. I even removed the weights and the result was even dumber somehow

57% FDP
57% CDU/CSU
55% AfD
55% Grüne
55% Linke
53% SPD

Does this mean I am the ultimate German swing voter?