🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would you say are the chances of a Grune-SPD-Die Linke coalition right now? Because it seems very possible if CDU doesn't get out of its slump and they can work together that Germany would have its first left wing government in a while.

Very low. There is no reason why the Greens should form a coalition with the (radical) LINKE when they attempt to establish themselves as a pragmatic center-left party. Greens-SPD-FDP is a possibility though. Would also be a more realistic majority.

What would an Ethiopia coalition look like in practice? What would its priorities be?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It would actually be glorious for Die Linke to fall under 5% and returning to a five faction Bundestag. Of course, in an ideal world the AfD would also be out, but that's not going to happen. At least not in 2021. Less faction would generally make government formation easier.

Given the weakness of Die Linke, there's very likely not going to be an R2G majority, so trafficlight coalition would be the only real alternative to the CDU. However, I think this would be much easier to negotiate with the SPD and Olaf Scholz at helm rather than the Greens.

Could the FDP justify supporting an SPD-led government?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way, you guys need to get rid of the eszett, it makes everything unreadable. Ich Weiß, lol.

ßtop playing, parochial boy

As they say, ignorance is bliß.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Traffic light is at 53.5% in that poll. Not good for Laschet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Shameless lack-of-an-answer-induced repost:

Having not paid as much attention to this election as I would've liked to, would it be right to state that the only mathematically possible coalitions that'd also be politically possible (i.e., not including AfD) can be traffic-light (SPD/Green/FDP), Jamaica (Union/Green/FDP), GroKo but with the SPD heading it, & R2G (SPD/Green/Linke), with traffic-light at about a 2/3rds chance, R2G at about a 1/3rd chance, & reverse-GroKo & Jamaica being extremely unlikely?

Likewise, would it be right to state that any coalition negotiations - but especially if they potentially result in failure & another GroKo a-la 2017 - will likely drag into 2022 & thus entail that Merkel remains caretaker Chancellor in the meantime?

Regarding the latter question: Yes, Merkel will be caretaker Chancellor until a successor is elected. Depending on the result and the duration of coalition negotiations, her Chancellorship could very well last until 2022, which would allow her to hold one last New Year's speech. If she remains Chancellor beyond 16th of December, she would break Helmut Kohl's record of 16 years and 26 days as head of government of the Federal Republic.

I wouldn't rate Jamaica as completely impossible, although it is not the likeliest option at the moment of course. The INTM forecast (https://www.wer-gewinnt-die-wahl.de/en), which is kind of comparable to FiveThirtyEight, projects Jamaica to be the most likely coalition option actually, based on surveying scholars. Yet, that evaluation should be taken with a grain of salt.

If CDU/CSU becomes largest force, the likelihood of Jamaica would be increased by a lot. FDP leader Christian Lindner stated in yesterdays' debate that he prefers Jamaica over a traffic light coalition, although he doesn't exclude the latter. Scholz meanwhile was clearly flirting with the red-green-yellow option, knowing that this variant is way less polarizing and more popular than R2G.

Why does it rate traffic light as less likely than R2G?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why does it rate traffic light as less likely than R2G?

This forecaster asked scholars in political science about how likely they would evaluate certain coalition options. I don't know how the methodology exactly works (I think they might have in their Q&A - in English too btw - and explained thoroughly how they got to the result), but I assume that at least based on their manifestos, R2G has many more political similarities than a traffic light coalition.

Then again, the scholar survey might be somewhat older, and considering that Die Linke is a party with lots of internal struggle, I could easily some parts of the party opposing R2G and rather want the party to recover as left-wing force in opposition to any government involving the Greens. If R2G achieves a narrow majority only, that might be a crucial factor.

I'm still not too convinced that a traffic light coalition is all but certain, since - as some posters had stated before - the FDP base is more conservative than the party leadership and a potential coalition treaty might be up for a vote among the membership base (that was planned with Jamaica in 2017). The sole prospect of governing with the Greens would be a reason for some parts of the base to reject a coalition treaty, although the FDP might just opt for a convention, where an approval would be very likely.

My (admittedly not very well informed) opinion is that if the FDP leadership is sure enough that it wants traffic light they will just go for a convention, to ensure it passes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Die Linke definitely has its place in the political spectrum, but they should get rid of the Maduro apologists on their left fringe. Maybe it would help if they dropped out of parliament. There are reasonable people in the reformist wing of the party.

Something I've noticed is that a lot of polls have had Die Linke near the threshold, but I haven't seen any that have had them at or below the threshold. Is there any real sense that they're in danger of missing out? I'm guessing that they're not going to win enough direct seats for the threshold not to matter.

Iirc all they need is one direct seat to get a share of seats in the Bundestag in line with their vote share, but the laws might have changed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Die Linke definitely has its place in the political spectrum, but they should get rid of the Maduro apologists on their left fringe. Maybe it would help if they dropped out of parliament. There are reasonable people in the reformist wing of the party.

Something I've noticed is that a lot of polls have had Die Linke near the threshold, but I haven't seen any that have had them at or below the threshold. Is there any real sense that they're in danger of missing out? I'm guessing that they're not going to win enough direct seats for the threshold not to matter.

Iirc all they need is one direct seat to get a share of seats in the Bundestag in line with their vote share, but the laws might have changed.

The law has changed some time ago: Until 1956 just one direct seat was needed, but ever since, three.

I'm surprised to learn the current law is that old.
I remember reading that in 2002 the SPD redrew the lines in Berlin in order to bring the PDS under the threshold they needed, but checking Wikipedia now, I wasn't aware that they actually won direct seats there.
The more you know...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Leaked exit poll:
Beer party: 30%
Sausage party: 20%
Work party: 15%
Autobahn party: 10%
Wunderbar party: 10%
Efficiency party: 5%
Berlin airport party: 5%
Bielefeld does not exist party: 5%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lindner is crowing over the FDP's result, from the looks of it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

no

Apparently the FDP leader once tried to run as a Chancellor candidate. It was treated with as much seriousness as it deserved.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hans-Georg Maaßen, the controversial right-wing CDU candidate in South Thuringia, is in third place right now in his district:

https://wahlen.thueringen.de/datenbank/wahl1/wahl.asp?wahlart=BW&wJahr=2021&zeigeErg=WK&wknr=196

Current first vote:
Ulrich (SPD) 31.0 %
Treutler (AfD) 24.0 %
Maaßen (CDU) 23.2 %

He doesn't have a list spot.

Bye Felicia

Third place behind the AfD.
Ouch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

So it basically boils down to whether Scholz can nail the Greens\alliance to pledge to only join a coalition led by the SPD and pressuring the FDP to join? otherwise with time the green will drift towards a Jamaica set up?

Unlikely.

Well, the Greens' co-leader Robert Habeck was still open to Jamaica just some minutes ago, as long as the next government is a "climate government".

Jamaica will definitely be an anti-climax govenment

Who knows? Some kind of common ground should be possible on paper.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How are direct seats in BW likely to go?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like every updated projection gets better for the SPD. They've probably got this. FDP also going up, and Greens and AfD are going down.

Still no chance of an SPD-FDP-Linke coalition?

There never was one. FDP and Die Linke are just absolutely incompatible.

I suppose it's more of a possibility than an AfD-Green-SPD-Die Linke coalition (R2G1B1).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can people please not import their political ideologies into this thread please?

And if you’ve never taken an interest in German politics please, like me, come to this thread to learn, rather than make a fool of yourself.

It's pretty hard to discuss an election in arguably Europe's most influential country, without importing your political ideologies to it. And some people may not be fully up to par on the intricacies of German policies, but they know how the CDU reacted to the economic crisis, for instance, and that's enough to form an opinion.

And there's also the fact that those who bemoan those who know less, also have the duty to educate.
If necessary, put it very simply.
All of us were once not very well informed about politics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How would those between 30 and 60 vote? Roughly in line with average?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the likelihood of  Grand Coalition 2.0 (post-Merkel and seemingly with a SPD chancellor)?

Slim imo

I don't think the CDU would agree to that

The CDU would probably be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
The SPD would definitely be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
It's one of the less likely possibilities.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the likelihood of  Grand Coalition 2.0 (post-Merkel and seemingly with a SPD chancellor)?

Slim imo

I don't think the CDU would agree to that

The CDU would probably be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
The SPD would definitely be unwilling to join a grand coalition it does not lead.
It's one of the less likely possibilities.

Sure, hut there is a problem. While SPD and Greens would easily reach an agreement, the FDP is likely to raise high demands. The question is, in case traffic light coalition talks fail because of Lindner,  would the Union join the SPD for the sake of stability? Or rather tensions within rhe Union would make Grand Coalition impossible?

How things go there will be dependent on who has more seats. However, I suspect SPD would sooner go new elections than play second fiddle to the Union for a third time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One of the mega-trends, fragmentation, continues with this election. Simon Hix has presented this graph which shows the development in the number of effective parties in parliament.

Impressive it is more fragmented now than in the first election (which had thresholds at state level rather than national).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One hour without any update, they are not counting the votes?

Dude this looks like California.

Germany tends to count quite quickly.
The real issue is that you don't know who will go in government for quite some time, but that can't be helped.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Grune lead in Berlin-Mitte. That is not at all surprising.
Die Linke is currently on top in 2 Berlin seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

cdu is in shambles, lash**t reminds me of mccain 2008, he knows he doesn't have a chance after his predcessor destroyed the country and the party, but he plays along

Merkel is more comparable in electoral terms to Obama rather than Bush, except if you are taking into account only the 2005 election.
Merkel did not "destroy" the CDU. Hell, in 2013, they almost won a majority (together with the CSU).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

https://mobile.twitter.com/emrshtn/status/1442204519069323265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Portillo moment?

More, say, [to use a very easy to understand example], a case of DeSantis being R nominee in 2024 and losing, so he goes back to being Governor of Florida.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When is vote counting likely to be finished?