UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[oldtimer]

YouGov have released a Scottish poll (for Westminster) which was conducted just before Sturgeon stood down:

SNP 38 (-7)
Lab 35 (+17)
Con 16 (-9)
LD 5 (-4)
Green 3 (+2)

Changes are since 2019. Usual caveats that you should be sceptical because it's just one poll and even more sceptical because it's one poll showing a big shift, but if those numbers were borne out in reality then most of the Central Belt would flip and Labour and the SNP would be approximately equal in terms of seats.

As I say, I'm sceptical, but I imagine that this is going to have some impact in the discourse.

If scottish independence is not credible the SNP becomes just another Plaid Cymru.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some of us made the mistake of thinking the SNP were firmly in decline after the 2017 GE result, so will remain hesitant to write them off this time round for that reason alone. But to a certain degree all "hegemonic" parties rely to some degree on a "strategy of inevitability" (Scottish Labour certainly did for a very long time) and anything that hits that is going to make politics inherently more interesting.

[afleitch]

I wouldn't hedge too much on that pool. The VI figures are extrapolated by the commissioner of the poll by excluding those not declaring a preference. YouGov have not made that adjustment themselves.

A November poll that it is compared to, was never published.

A slightly earlier poll from Survation;

https://mobile.twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1626585163038863360

Taken during the absolute heat of the prisoners row. Why it was sat on, is anyone's guess.

Both polls have fieldwork from before Sturgeon's departure, with YouGov having one day including the news.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes a bit of a corrective to anybody getting a bit *too* excited by the previous poll. But the underlying trends in polling (not just VI) do suggest that the previous SNP dominance is being slowly eroded.

[afleitch]

First post resignation poll

https://mobile.twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1626657738146164736

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I’m sure Johnson would enjoy the symbolism of being PM twice a la Churchill as well (albeit as with all Johnsonian-Churchillian comparisons, repeating history as farce).

For all the symbolism a Kevin Rudd comparison would be far closer to the mark if it eventuates.

[CumbrianLefty]

And with a similar end result, if he's lucky.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And with a similar end result, if he's lucky.

The ultimate end result too? Lobbying to become UN Secretary General then getting Ambassador to US when your party comes back to gov to shut you up?

[TheTide]

This shows how strong Sturgeon's brand is/was. I'm struggling to picture a majority of the electorate describing Angus Robertson as 'charismatic'.

https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1626660250127572997?s=20

[Torrain]

Sounds like Sunak’s NI protocol talks have foundered.

Original plan seems to have been for the deal to be unveiled on Monday, and then presented to the Commons on Tuesday. That’s all been scrapped, apparently.

[CumbrianLefty]

After all the heavy briefing on not just how a deal was imminent but that it would be a "triumph" for the PM, this has got to hurt. Will appeasing the unappeasable work this time? Let's have a guess.....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weak.

[Blair]

Do they think this will be easier after the local elections??

[MABA 2020]

Weak.

I believe it should be "Weak, Weak, Weak!"

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1627726566343032832

😂

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1627726566343032832

😂

Now all we need is a Burmese Premier of Northern Ireland breaking away a rather distant part of the broader realm into its own thing.

[Estrella]

https://mobile.twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1627726566343032832

😂

Now all we need is a Burmese Premier of Northern Ireland breaking away a rather distant part of the broader realm into its own thing.

Ah, but would they be Prod Burmese or Taig Burmese?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1627726566343032832
😂

Now all we need is a Burmese Premier of Northern Ireland breaking away a rather distant part of the broader realm into its own thing.

Ah, but would they be Prod Burmese or Taig Burmese?

Catholic Burmese, of course.

[oldtimer]

Do they think this will be easier after the local elections??

Sunak's a lame duck.

No one wants to negotiate or sign anything with someone who appears to be on his way out.

They will wait for the next one.

[Torrain]

I regret to inform you that Matt Hancock has reached the “Ukraine NFTs” portion of his grifting career. We’re about three weeks away from him changing his Twitter profile picture to a blurry jpeg he payed £20,000 for.

[CumbrianLefty]

Do they think this will be easier after the local elections??

Sunak's a lame duck.

No one wants to negotiate or sign anything with someone who appears to be on his way out.

They will wait for the next one.

True enough as a generality. But as far as the NI protocol business is concerned, Labour had offered their support for any deal he put forward - making it very likely that it would pass.

[Pericles]

'Get Brexit Done' meant that the shenanigans seen in 2019 were not supposed to repeat endlessly. If the large majority given to Boris can't even pass that, it's completely useless.

[Silent Hunter]

'Get Brexit Done' meant that the shenanigans seen in 2019 were not supposed to repeat endlessly. If the large majority given to Boris can't even pass that, it's completely useless.

67 isn't that big a majority, compared with some.

[oldtimer]

'Get Brexit Done' meant that the shenanigans seen in 2019 were not supposed to repeat endlessly. If the large majority given to Boris can't even pass that, it's completely useless.

67 isn't that big a majority, compared with some.

True, it's gone down by endless by-election defeats.

[Silent Hunter]

'Get Brexit Done' meant that the shenanigans seen in 2019 were not supposed to repeat endlessly. If the large majority given to Boris can't even pass that, it's completely useless.

67 isn't that big a majority, compared with some.

True, it's gone down by endless by-election defeats.

That and we currently have no less than 15 "Independents".