Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[kaoras]

Petro margin in Bogotá always dwindles as the count progresses but I still see almost no path for Hernandez.

[Walmart_shopper]

Petro has 63.25% in Bogota. Not sure if that's high for him or nor, but it seems pretty solid.

[Red Velvet]

Almost 20% in...

Petro 49.73
Rodolfo 48.06.

It will be really close. If Petro wins these are lifechanging results for Colombia and LatAm, as it’s the most reliably right-wing country in South America. The left doesn’t usually win there at all!

[Hash]

Petro appears to be getting the kind of numbers he needs from the Caribbean, while I feel Rodolfo would need to be doing a tiny bit better in Antioquia and the Eje. Early days still....

Does anyone know who will most likely win Chapinero in Bogota?

Fico won Chapinero in R1, unsurprisingly, and it is exactly where Rodolfo needs to win if he is to win the election. But we won't get those localities result until tomorrow.

[Hash]

34.4% reporting

Petro 50.29
Rodolfo 47.48

Almost ready to call this for Petro.

[icc]

Petro has 63.25% in Bogota. Not sure if that's high for him or nor, but it seems pretty solid.

I think these are pretty decent benchmarks for a Petro win:
https://twitter.com/slondono00/status/1537939813914906625?s=21&t=G_YjRJd_iQzD4m2Y3U4aTg

[kaoras]

34.4% reporting

Petro 50.29
Rodolfo 47.48

Almost ready to call this for Petro.

Yep, it's over.

[Mike88]

34.4% reporting

Petro 50.29
Rodolfo 47.48

Almost ready to call this for Petro.

Yeah, he got this. The debate fiasco may have hurted Rodolfo.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

This guy is already calling it for Petro https://twitter.com/SLondono00/status/1538637408014684160?s=20&t=fauQ7sWAjht...

[Red Velvet]

Petro’s margin only gets bigger as more vote comes in, it’s done.

Holy ****. This is one of those turning points for the region.

[Hash]

47.18% reporting

Petro 50.68%
Rodolfo 47.1%

Being a bit cautious still but I think Petro has won!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

VIVA COLOMBIA.

[Hash]

Congratulations to my gut feeling, by the way.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Colombia elects its first leftist president ever. And Latin America elects its…third? former guerrilla fighter.

[Hash]

Petro 51.03% at 65.2% reporting. It's over kids. Nice and clean win.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Game over for Rodolfo, lets see how big this change is for Colombia because Petro is not a type of a moderate centre-left politician

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Petro 51.03% at 65.2% reporting. It's over kids. Nice and clean win.

And a bigger margin than expected, unless all the remaining votes are super pro-Petro.

[Velasco]

Several media outlets are calling the election right now. Petro presidente

[Bilardista]

Colombia elects its first leftist president ever. And Latin America elects its…third? former guerrilla fighter.

At least fourth: Daniel Ortega, José Mujica, Salvador Sánchez Cerén, and now this guy.

[Hash]

Turnout is going to be around 58% - pretty massive turnout, the highest besides the 1998 runoff. 22.3 million voters showed up, compared to 21.1 million three weeks ago.

Petro's victory is partly because of higher turnout across the Caribbean: +6.4 in Atlántico, +6.4 in Sucre, +5.2 in Bolívar, +7.8 in Córdoba, +4.3 in Magdalena, +7 in La Guajira, +4.6 in Cesar, +3.5 in San Andrés. Also higher turnout in the Pacific.

On the other hand, turnout was basically the same in Antioquia.

[Sebastiansg7]

It's very surprising to me that the turnout increased, especially in the Caribbean Coast, after the heavy rains that fell ini that region during this afternoon. This is no minor issue since in the 2016 peace agreement referendum, part of the reason why the yes option lost was because turnout was depressed in the caribbean coast because a Hurricane was passing through.

[SWE]

Colombia elects its first leftist president ever. And Latin America elects its…third? former guerrilla fighter.

At least fourth: Daniel Ortega, José Mujica, Salvador Sánchez Cerén, and now this guy.

Dilma Rousseff too

[Sebastiansg7]

Honestly, the Rodolfo campaign during these weeks was very bad. I don't know what was the rationale, perhaps Rodolfo Hernandez did not even want to win in the first place? I don't know.

He didn't show up for the debate, he didn't campaign anywhere, didn't make any trips to the regions where he needed to pick up votes, and during the last two weeks, he spent most of his time in Miami, literally the place where he needed to campaign the least since the immigrant Miami electorate is probably the most right wing, even more right wing than the upper class neighborhoods of Medellin.

[Hash]

The map is not very surprising. Rodolfo's best result is now Norte de Santander with 77.8%, given the very right-wing leaning (post-Venezuelan crisis) in that border region, while his native Santander gave him 73%. In Fico's Antioquia, Rodolfo won 64%, so he didn't quite get all of Fico's voters, while Petro grew by 9% in three weeks there, getting 33% of the vote.

Petro won with 58.6% in Bogotá, gaining over 10 points since May 29. Rodolfo won in surrounding Cundinamarca with 53.5% but Petro also gained 10 points there.

Petro's victory owes a lot to the very clear victory he won across the Caribbean: 67% in Atlántico (+12.2 since May!), 61.1% in Córdoba (where he was born), 64.1% in Sucre, 61% in Bolívar, 60.2% in Magdalena, 64.6% in La Guajira; the only weaker points are Cesar (53%) because of Rodolfo's strong support in southern Cesar, which has closer cultural/economic ties with Santander, as well as San Andrés (51% but on very low turnout).

Of course, Petro also swept the Pacific coast: 81.9% in heavily black and indigenous Chocó, 80.9% in Nariño, 79% in Cauca, 63.9% in Valle (historically a bit of bellwether and swingy... not anymore); as well as the south/Amazonia: nearly 80% in Putumayo.

[Benjamin Frank]

Almost 20% in...

Petro 49.73
Rodolfo 48.06.

It will be really close. If Petro wins these are lifechanging results for Colombia and LatAm, as it’s the most reliably right-wing country in South America. The left doesn’t usually win there at all!

It doesn't mean anything unless Petro is reelected: a change election always needs a confirmation.