Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[icc]

It seems like one of the noticeable trends from both the last Presidential election and the 2019 locals was the decreasing power of machines, and greater importance of the voto de opinión. Would you expect that  trend to continue, meaning we could see a (slightly) less corrupt Congress?

[icc]

Very interesting post on Bogotá. I wonder if you could give a brief overview of the candidates in the Valle too?

Also, do either Centro Esperanza or Nuevo Liberalismo have a realistic shot of seats in Bogotá and maybe scraping one in Antioquia or Valle?

[icc]

Is there a good way to follow along later?

[icc]

Is there a way to see where in Bogotá the votes currently reported are coming from? Doesn’t seem to be an option to break it down by borough (on the mobile site at least).

[icc]

So the counting for the preconteo is now all but finished.

Are there usually meaningful differences between the preconteo and escrutinio?

[icc]

In terms of comparing turnout in the different primaries:

The Pacto 'won' the turnout battle almost everywhere.

Equipo por Colombia came out on top in: Antioquia, Atlántico, Caldas, Córdoba, Consulados (abroad) Norte de Santander and Quindío - so basically the very strongest anti-leftist areas (though excluding Casanare), plus a couple of departamentos in the Caribbean with extremely strong machines. Notably (or perhaps not), those machines were not working for Gutiérrez, the winner of the consulta.

Centro Esperanza had most votes cast (by far) only in Boyacá, where Carlos Amaya's machines were working overtime, helping to earn him a surprisingly strong third place in the consulta.

Though you can clearly see where machines have made a big difference, most obviously in the Caribbean, it's interesting how similar the patterns of strength are to those from the 2018 first round.

[icc]

Is there any chance of a full recount, or is this basically bluster from campaigns who know it won’t happen?

It sounded from an article on La Silla Vacía as though smaller parties like Nuevo Liberalismo may have lost out on a lot a votes too (which you can see in the figures posted), but aren’t getting them all, basically due to a lack of counting agents. Unfortunately something that will be a problem for small parties in all democracies. And admittedly, given how far off the threshold they were, it doesn’t make much difference.

Also a question - what is electioneering like in Colombia? Is there leafleting / doorknocking? Or is it a combination of the air war with, shall we say, questionable, practices?

Plus, out of interest, what are the issues you identified with Nuevo Liberalismo, and the way the Galáns have run it? From a look over their Senate and Bogotá lists, I thought the quality looked very good, not just by the rotten level of Colombian politics, but in terms of any centre-left party.

[icc]

Thanks, super informative!

[icc]

Is Betancourt's bid simply pure narcissism?

From the outside, it looks like a one-woman kamikaze mission to destroy the centre.

[icc]

Am I right in thinking we still don’t have the final legislative results? Any update on when they’ll come through?

[icc]

Petro has 63.25% in Bogota. Not sure if that's high for him or nor, but it seems pretty solid.

I think these are pretty decent benchmarks for a Petro win:
https://twitter.com/slondono00/status/1537939813914906625?s=21&t=G_YjRJd_iQzD4m2Y3U4aTg

[icc]

Those Upper class areas are Rodolfo/Right wing territory. Neighborhoods like Chapinero Alto, Santa Barbara, Cedritos and Chicó are the traditional liviing areas of the rich in the city, and they are safe places for the right. However, there is a considerable center-left and left electorale as well, mostly members of the Upper class who happen to be academics, cultural professionals, intellectuals, and so on.

Looking at the overall result in Bogotá, though, Rodolfo must have some pretty unconvincing margins. On uniform swing he’d be behind in Suba and only narrowly ahead in Chapinero, though Usaquén would be a bit safer. Obviously those boroughs all contain less wealthy areas too, but still.

[icc]

It's interesting how unremarkable the patterns of support are.

Despite being a very different candidate from what has come before, and all the anti-Uribista rhetoric, the map looks almost identical to what we'd have seen in a Petro v Fico runoff if the result had been the same.

Petro would obviously have done a lot better in Santander (though still not close to winning) and maybe Boyacá, and probably would have done a bit, though not significantly, worse in the Caribbean and in Paisa areas (Antioquia & Eje Cafetero).

In large part, though, that's down to 'favourite son' votes rather than anything ideological. Certainly I can't see that any departamentos (at a push San Andres) would have voted the other way in a close Petro win versus an Uribista.

[icc]

Ingrid Betancourt, who supported Rodolfo in the end, has also said she would be in opposition, which is terrible news for the opposition. It is unclear whether this goes for her party as well (I feel like it will, she clearly runs the thing as her personal vanity project with no discussions allowed), but in any case this will be problematic for the party's only two congressmen: Humberto de la Calle (Senate) and Daniel Carvalho (House), who are both leaning more towards being independent.

Is it not the case that the decision is taken by the members in Congress, rather than the party as a whole? In which case there isn't a lot Betancourt could do about it if de la Calle and Carvalho don't want to be in opposition (particularly as de la Calle clearly has zero time for her since she left the Centro Esperanza coalition).

The Nuevo Liberalismo's sad and pathetic transformation into the Galán brothers support group continues. The party leadership (that is, Galán) wants to declare the party independent, after having endorsed Rodolfo in the runoff. The party's members who endorsed Petro, led by former top candidate Mabel Lara (as well as Yolanda Perea, Afro-Colombian feminist leader who was also on the Senate list in March), asked that there be instead an honest and open dialogue with the incoming government and that the party should be part of the 'transformations'. To which Galán responded with a curt statement in which he says that he's the boss and that all the decisions are to be taken by him only.

Quite astonishing how badly the Galáns have played their hand. They could surely have accommodated people like Lara / Marulanda without giving up effective control of the party, and almost certainly could have done with Lara and Perea, but seems like their heads have been too far up their own asses to work out any kind of effective strategy.

A shame, as the party did seem to have some genuine promise even after some of the criticisms had come to light, and ran some very interesting and promising candidates for Congress (including the one they actually managed to get elected).

[icc]

The results of the Legislative Election are finally confirmed (though I can't see the 'normal' Cámara seats here - https://escrutinionacionalcongreso2022.registraduria.gov.co/difusion/00000000000000000000006f/2

Final list of senators elected here:
https://www.semana.com/politica/articulo/atencion-cne-declaro-la-eleccion-del-senado-conozca-como-quedo-conformado/202202/