Who will win the Tory leadership?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Are their ballots run by the ERS? Seems surprising that they'd have agreed to it.

[mileslunn]

I think Truss is heavily favoured.  Yes possible Sunak wins but probably requires Truss make some fatal error which is possible but unlikely.  I think her tax cuts right away is very popular even if many economists advise against it.  Sunak's policy of tax cuts but only when conditions permit may be economically sound but in the day and age of populism not sure that sells well.  And unlike Labour, Tories don't really have option of raising taxes on wealthy to cut for lower income, that would not go over well.  Polls also suggest unlike earlier, Truss would fair better in a general election, although Labour is starting to regain lead so I think whomever wins is going to have a tough time in next general election.  Still Tories have a long history of trailing in between elections and then winning so while things may not look good for them now, I wouldn't totally count them out.

[CumbrianLefty]

Many - and quite possibly most - votes in this contest have been cast already.

If so, you don't even need a qualifier really. It is 99.99% certain that Truss will be the clear winner.