Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[Sebastiansg7]

Just came back from the polls. Honestly, it didn't seem that there were more people this time than during the parliamentary elections back in march. Anyways, hopefully Fico does not make it to the second round. The guy only knows how to put on a show, as he is an incompetent who has the backing of uribismo behind him.

Isn't a low turnout rate bad for Rodolfo Hernandéz?

I don't think the low turnout will be low, but I also don't feel like it will be extraordinarly high, although is just anectodal evidence from seeing the turnout in my neighborhood a couple of hours ago.

And a low turnout would definietly be bad for Rodolfo and good for Fico. Rodolfo needs all the new potential voters he can possibly get in order to beat Fico, who has more backing from traditional political structures.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Is Petro going to win today or is going to be a runoff?

[Hash]

Is Petro going to win today or is going to be a runoff?

There will almost certainly be a runoff (and my gut tells me he'll underperform expectations a bit), and if he faces Rodolfo in the runoff, there's no guarantee that he'll win.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Is Petro going to win today or is going to be a runoff?

There will almost certainly be a runoff (and my gut tells me he'll underperform expectations a bit), and if he faces Rodolfo in the runoff, there's no guarantee that he'll win.

Petro vs Rodolfo in a runoff would be a toss-up?

[Hash]

First results with 0.75%, predominantly from expats, has Fico leading with 45.2%. Savour it while it lasts, Fico.

[Sebastiansg7]

First national count:

Federico Gutiérrez - 45.2%
Gustavo Petro - 32.1%
Rodolfo Hernández - 14.1%
Sergio Fajardo - 6.9%
John Milton Rodríguez - 0.4%
Enrique Gómez - 0.2%

[Walmart_shopper]

Was the Colombian high court's abortion ruling this year a very prominent part of the political discourse during the campaign? Did anyone make a big deal of it?

[Hash]

2.1% reporting:

Fico 38.06
Petro 36.89
Rodolfo 15.33
Fajardo 7.67

[Sebastiansg7]

Was the Colombian high court's abortion ruling this year a very prominent part of the political discourse during the campaign? Did anyone make a big deal of it?

Not really, it quickly leaved the news cycle because other controversial topics took the spotlight, although candidate John Milton Rodríguez did propose a national referendum to override the court's decision.

[Hash]

3% reporting

Petro 37.7
Fico 34.4
Rodolfo 19.1
Fajardo 6.6

The first results were basically all from the expat vote, which opened on Monday, so the results from now on should reflect the national territory. And I have a gut feeling that it's looking quite good for Rodolfo there.

[Hash]

5.2% reporting

Petro 41.2
Fico 28.9
Rodolfo 22.3
Fajardo 5

Look at Rodolfo rise... He's going to overtake Fico (calling it now).

[Mike88]

Is there a website link to follow the results?

[Hash]

9.3% reporting

Petro 41.16
Rodolfo 26.9
Fico 24.9
Fajardo 3.9

https://resultados.registraduria.gov.co/presidente/0/colombia

It's going to be a Petro/Rodolfo runoff and Rodolfo is doing well. Fico is doing terribly.

[Sir John Johns]

16.4% reported

Petro 41.5%
Rodolfo 27.9%
Fico 23.7%
Fajardo 3.6%

Fico is only leading in Antioquia and expats

[Hash]

16.4% reporting

Petro 41.48
Rodolfo 27.91
Fico 23.71
Fajardo 3.61

The results are getting a bit more regionally representative, although Petro's stronghold in Bogotá is underrepresented as usual at this time. But his strong areas in the Caribbean are coming in fast. Antioquia lags Santander a bit. But it's pretty representative and numbers should stabilize in this general range soon.

But, again, Rodolfo is doing very well. I expected him to do well, as I said, but I'm still surprised by some of his numbers (Caldas...).

[Mike88]

At this rate, Rodolfo is probably gonna surpass the 30% mark. He's already at almost 29%.

[Sebastiansg7]

Most analysts were sure that Fico would take the Eje Cafetero Region, but in Caldas Rodolfo is winning, and in both Risaralda and Quindío Petro is winning, which is very shocking to me.

[Mike88]

78.5% counted:

40.6% Petro
27.9% Rodolfo
24.0% Fico
  4.1% Fajardo
  1.3% Rodríguez
  0.2% Martínez
  0.1% Betancourt
  0.1% Pérez

It's basically set and done. It will be a Petro vs Rodolfo 2nd round.

[Velasco]

Oh My God

[Sebastiansg7]

This will be an extremely close runoff. I am more leftwing than rightwing, so in theory I should vote for Petro, but Petro does not know how to explain his controversial policies in a satisfactory manner, which leaves me many doubts about him. Rodolfo Hernández, on the other hand, is a populist candidate solely fix on corruption, and with little else to offer so far, the most I've heard him say is a policy of import substitution for agricultural products.

[Red Velvet]

The anti-establishment guy who the press is saying is Colombia’s Trump/Bolsonaro is more likely to win against Petro in the runoff, right?

[Velasco]

This will be an extremely close runoff. I am more leftwing than rightwing, so in theory I should vote for Petro, but Petro does not know how to explain his controversial policies in a satisfactory manner, which leaves me many doubts about him. Rodolfo Hernández, on the other hand, is a populist candidate solely fix on corruption, and with little else to offer so far, the most I've heard him say is a policy of import substitution for agricultural products.

Maybe that's the problem.

 A candidate like Petro needs to explain his "controversial" policies in depth, while a *populist* like Rodolfo can win with memes and TikToks

I'm not a huge fan of Gustavo Petro myself, but I would be scared at the prospect of Rodolfo Hernández being elected (and he's looking like the favourite)

[Sebastiansg7]

The anti-establishment guy who the press is saying is Colombia’s Trump/Bolsonaro is more likely to win against Petro in the runoff, right?

Absolutely. Not only is he more likely win, he might actually do so.

[Hash]

96.2%:

Petro 40.34
Rodolfo 28.08
Fico 23.93
Fajardo 4.22

Turnout 53%

[Mike88]

Fico's headquarters is emptier than a banker's heart...