Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[Red Velvet]

Are results from expats, divided per country, released?

[Mike88]

Honestly, the Rodolfo campaign during these weeks was very bad. I don't know what was the rationale, perhaps Rodolfo Hernandez did not even want to win in the first place? I don't know.

He didn't show up for the debate, he didn't campaign anywhere, didn't make any trips to the regions where he needed to pick up votes, and during the last two weeks, he spent most of his time in Miami, literally the place where he needed to campaign the least since the immigrant Miami electorate is probably the most right wing, even more right wing than the upper class neighborhoods of Medellin.

Wait, he's living in Miami, Florida, USA??? You're kidding me...  

[Mike88]

Are results from expats, divided per country, released?

Results by country:

https://resultados.registraduria.gov.co/presidente/14/colombia/consulados

[Sebastiansg7]

Honestly, the Rodolfo campaign during these weeks was very bad. I don't know what was the rationale, perhaps Rodolfo Hernandez did not even want to win in the first place? I don't know.

He didn't show up for the debate, he didn't campaign anywhere, didn't make any trips to the regions where he needed to pick up votes, and during the last two weeks, he spent most of his time in Miami, literally the place where he needed to campaign the least since the immigrant Miami electorate is probably the most right wing, even more right wing than the upper class neighborhoods of Medellin.

Wait, he's living in Miami, Florida, USA??? You're kidding me...  

He has a house there, and he stayed in Miami during almost two of the three weeks of the second round campaign, arguing that there were threats against his life.

[Hash]

Honestly, the Rodolfo campaign during these weeks was very bad. I don't know what was the rationale, perhaps Rodolfo Hernandez did not even want to win in the first place? I don't know.

He didn't show up for the debate, he didn't campaign anywhere, didn't make any trips to the regions where he needed to pick up votes, and during the last two weeks, he spent most of his time in Miami, literally the place where he needed to campaign the least since the immigrant Miami electorate is probably the most right wing, even more right wing than the upper class neighborhoods of Medellin.

Wait, he's living in Miami, Florida, USA??? You're kidding me...  

He splits his time largely between his penthouse apartment in Bucaramanga and his country house in Piedecuesta, but he spent a disproportionate amount of time in the runoff in Miami, and at one point said he wouldn't return to Colombia because he would be stabbed (but changed his mind, ostensibly when the government gave him 'guarantees').

Of course, back in October 2021, he also apparently spent a nice time in Miami, on a yacht with some girls in bikini, as Cambio magazine revealed a few days ago.

[Mike88]

I've been following a bit the campaign, but wasn't aware that Rofolfo though he would be stabbed . If only he was rich and was able to afford security guards...

Anyway, what a caricature...

[Walmart_shopper]

Nobody answered my question about Chapinero and the wealthier parts of North Bogota. Are these areas more likely to go for Petro or Rodolfo? (I didn't see any localized data yet breaking down the results by district or municipality).

[Sebastiansg7]

Those Upper class areas are Rodolfo/Right wing territory. Neighborhoods like Chapinero Alto, Santa Barbara, Cedritos and Chicó are the traditional living areas of the upper class, and upper-middle class in the city, and they are safe places for the right. However, there is a considerable center-left and left electorale as well, mostly academics, cultural professionals, intellectuals, and so on.

[icc]

Those Upper class areas are Rodolfo/Right wing territory. Neighborhoods like Chapinero Alto, Santa Barbara, Cedritos and Chicó are the traditional liviing areas of the rich in the city, and they are safe places for the right. However, there is a considerable center-left and left electorale as well, mostly members of the Upper class who happen to be academics, cultural professionals, intellectuals, and so on.

Looking at the overall result in Bogotá, though, Rodolfo must have some pretty unconvincing margins. On uniform swing he’d be behind in Suba and only narrowly ahead in Chapinero, though Usaquén would be a bit safer. Obviously those boroughs all contain less wealthy areas too, but still.

[Hash]

Nobody answered my question about Chapinero and the wealthier parts of North Bogota. Are these areas more likely to go for Petro or Rodolfo? (I didn't see any localized data yet breaking down the results by district or municipality).

I did, here .

I posted the results by locality for the first round in Bogotá (and a few other cities) a few pages back here. The results by locality will be available tomorrow, when the escrutinio is completed, and I'll share them once I compile them.

As icc guessed, I also think that Rodolfo must have won by rather unimpressive margins in Chapinero and Usaquén -- although the latter did show a pretty big divide in the first round between the very affluent neighbourhoods (Fico and Fajardo strong, Rodolfo weak and Petro very weak) and some more lower middle-class areas in the north of the locality, where Rodolfo was quite strong. I don't doubt that the very wealthy elite neighbourhoods in Bogotá voted for Rodolfo but I'll be curious to see the turnout, how high the blank vote was and how much better Petro did compared to the first round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Colombia elects its first leftist president ever. And Latin America elects its…third? former guerrilla fighter.

At least fourth: Daniel Ortega, José Mujica, Salvador Sánchez Cerén, and now this guy.

Dilma Rousseff too

Oh, that’s right. I forgot Rousseff was a guerrilla and forgot Sánchez Cerén existed.

[Sebastiansg7]

Suba actually has more middle and lower class neighborhoods, the wealthier areas are all in the eastern part of the locality, and have a much lower population density (mostly groups of apartment buildings that we call here conjuntos residenciales). Rodolfo definitely lost this locality, and by a significant margin.

Usaquen is pretty diverse. The southern part, neighborhoods such as Santa Barbara, La Carolina and Unicentro, are very wealthy, and safe for the right in every election. In the middle we have the big Cedritos neighborhood that is mostly middle and upper middle class, and that is a swing area. In the north of Usaquen, we see a socioeconomic profile more similar to the southern part of the city, and Petro must have won here. So my guess is that Rodolfo won Usaquen, but as you have said, by a slimmer margin.

Chapinero on the other hand is mostly upper-middle and upper class, but it has the particularity that lots of intellectuals, university professors, academics, artists, etc, live there, and they tend to be leftists, so even if Chapinero is always won by the right, the margins are never as stark as they are for example in El Poblado in Medellin or in the South of Cali.

[Walmart_shopper]

Nobody answered my question about Chapinero and the wealthier parts of North Bogota. Are these areas more likely to go for Petro or Rodolfo? (I didn't see any localized data yet breaking down the results by district or municipality).

I did, here .

I posted the results by locality for the first round in Bogotá (and a few other cities) a few pages back here. The results by locality will be available tomorrow, when the escrutinio is completed, and I'll share them once I compile them.

As icc guessed, I also think that Rodolfo must have won by rather unimpressive margins in Chapinero and Usaquén -- although the latter did show a pretty big divide in the first round between the very affluent neighbourhoods (Fico and Fajardo strong, Rodolfo weak and Petro very weak) and some more lower middle-class areas in the north of the locality, where Rodolfo was quite strong. I don't doubt that the very wealthy elite neighbourhoods in Bogotá voted for Rodolfo but I'll be curious to see the turnout, how high the blank vote was and how much better Petro did compared to the first round.

Sorry! Thanks.

I knew that the area was and is solidly uribista in the same way that wealthier parts of Mexico City (Santa Fe) are more panista. I just wonder if that actually would translate into support for a weird figure like Rodolfo without an urbista candidate in the runoff. The whole low-brow populist right thing just doesn't seem to vibe with the wealthy, Catholic conservative elite consensus of Chapinero and environs.

[warandwar]

Who was the shambling old guy that Petro brought up on stage furing his speech? Was that Mockus?

[Hash]

Who was the shambling old guy that Petro brought up on stage furing his speech? Was that Mockus?

Yeah, that was Mockus. I'm sad to see how old and frail he looks, but I was very glad to see him there.

[warandwar]

Who was the shambling old guy that Petro brought up on stage furing his speech? Was that Mockus?

Yeah, that was Mockus. I'm sad to see how old and frail he looks, but I was very glad to see him there.

Yes. Powerful speeches by both, Petro has a very strange style compared to amerikan politicians. At one point confetti fell and he basically talked over it.

[Hash]

Results by municipality (preconteo results)



More to say later but nothing particularly unexpected when looking at it from this basic angle: good but ultimately imperfect and just insufficient transfers from Fico to Rodolfo (I will need to drill deeper into this tomorrow to get a better idea), Petro confirms and shores up his strongholds, the regional divide remains quite important with mega-strongholds and lopsided results for both candidates.

In terms of cities: Rodolfo won Medellín, Bucaramanga, Cúcuta (with 81%, undoubtedly his best result in a big city by far), Manizales, Pereira, Armenia (these 3 quite narrowly), Ibagué, Villavicencio, Florencia, Yopal, Envigado, Itagui.

Petro won all Caribbean capitals, including 67.5% in Cartagena and 64% in Barranquilla, Bogotá, Cali, Popayán, Neiva, Pasto, Ipiales, Quibdó, Soacha, Palmira, Mocoa, Buenaventura, Tunja, Duitama, Sogamoso.

[kaoras]

What are those ultra leftists municipios in Norte de Santander?

[Hash]

What are those ultra leftists municipios in Norte de Santander?

Parts of the Catatumbo: very poor region still suffering heavily from the armed conflict and drug wars (it is a major region of coca cultivation). Those specific municipalities where the left has been extremely strong for several elections have a strong peasant movement (and some politically organized coca cultivators), the Ascamcat. Outgoing two-term Polo senator Alberto Castilla was a leading community and peasant leader in Catatumbo (municipality of Convención). Castilla didn't run for reelection but his group supported Robert Daza, elected to the Senate in thirteenth position on the Pacto.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I have a ton of Colombian friends online so I've been following this election pretty closely; and while I doubt Petro can by himself turn Colombia into a Nordic-like functioning country... He's certainly an improvement over many of the most recent governments, or so we can hope.

Cue right-wingers raising hysterics about Colombia becoming the next Venezuela or whatever crap, lol.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

‘She represents me’: the black woman making political history in Colombia

[DL]

Interesting that Colombians in the US so overwhelmingly voted for the rightwing candidate but Colombians in Canada were almost evenly split. FWIW I know a few Colombians in Toronto and they are all pretty left wing

[Red Velvet]

Interesting that Colombians in the US so overwhelmingly voted for the rightwing candidate but Colombians in Canada were almost evenly split. FWIW I know a few Colombians in Toronto and they are all pretty left wing

Expats in the US, regardless of country of origin, vote more right-wing compared to expats in other countries, also regardless of the election. And because most immigrants are usually in US, it’s usually safe to assume the foreign vote will lean right because of this.

Especially if they live in Miami, I bet that if internal per region results are released you will find out that Colombians in Florida were the most right-wing in all of US. It’s a no-brainer.

The Expats in Europe also tend to be the most pro-left ones, especially when compared to expats in all of Americas. The only countries Petro won in the region were Cuba (duh!) and the Southern Cone (Chile, Argentina, Uruguay) which is where expats tend to have characteristics a little bit closer to the ones going to Europe. Also very interestingly, in Brazil Petro won too and it was the 3rd biggest win in all of the region, behind only Cuba and Argentina.

AMERICAS

Venezuela - Hernandez 83,39%
USA - Hernandez 79,32%
Costa Rica - Hernandez 76,40%
Paraguay - Hernandez 73,51%
Panama - Hernandez 72,69%
Dominican Republic - Hernandez 70,96%
Peru - Hernandez 63,98%
Bolivia - Hernandez 63,70%
Ecuador - Hernandez 60,58%
Canada - Hernandez 54,65%
Mexico - Hernandez 53,56%
-
Chile - Petro 56,95%
Uruguay - Petro 59,13%
Brazil - Petro 62,47%
Argentina - Petro 72,45%
Cuba - Petro 81,48%

EUROPE

UK - Hernandez 50,01%
-
Italy - Petro 54,09%
Ireland - Petro 55,47%
Spain - Petro 55,93%
Portugal - Petro 62,09%
Netherlands - Petro 63,20%
Turkey - Petro 67,21%
Poland - Petro 68,50%
Sweden - Petro 68,67%
Norway - Petro 68,91%
France - Petro 70,12%
Finland - Petro 73,14%
Germany - Petro 74,38%
Russia - Petro 84,75%

Other Places:

South Africa - Hernandez 64,19%
Malaysia - Hernandez 61,90%
-
India - TIE
-
Japan - Petro 49,40%
China - Petro 50,00%
Egypt - Petro 57,50%
South Korea - Petro 64,18%
New Zealand - Petro 64,41%
Australia - Petro 65,72%

[CumbrianLefty]

Well its good that my scepticism upthread was confounded. We still can have nice things sometimes

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Congrats to Colombia!

I hope that Petro & Marquez lead Colombia into a brighter and better future.