Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[Velasco]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a pretty distant issue and only seems to be relevant insofar as it can be connected to Venezuela, which isn't that hard. Duque has, unsurprisingly, condemned the invasion. But Colombia's foreign policy, especially under village idiot Duque, has been useless. As for the presidential candidates, their reaction has been... pretty pathetic? The right-wingers seem more interested in using it to screech about 'radical left'/Maduro bad/Petro=Maduro=Putin. The centre's response has been OK, except for Robledo who has sadly gone down the 'NATO provocation' road (not too surprising from him but pretty sad given that he's not an idiot). As for Petro, well, he's basically said that he doesn't care and that Colombia should focus on its own problems and it can't help anyone. He's not actually condemned the invasion. All this reinforces my personal view that, if Petro is elected, he wouldn't be a Chávez/Castro/Maduro but rather AMLO (I don't say this as praise or in a good way).

The reaction from Colombian rightwingers is rather unsurprising and actially resembles a little the reaction of conservative media and politicians in Spain, pointing to non-existing links between Putin and Podemos while silencing the actual connections between Putin's regime and ultraconservative organizations like HazteOir (closely alligned to Vox). Rightwingers and outdated anti-imperialists fail to see Putin is not a communist and that he's actually sponsoring the far-right in Europe. The reaction from the Colombian leftwingers is quite disheartening, on the other hand. Sadly it seems that Petro and others are not looking southwards to Chile, where Gabriel Boric condemns unequivocally the aggressor and embraces the people under attack. Unlike others, Boric knows where is the correct side of history

 

[Velasco]

[

look forward to the clueless foreign media trying to figure out who the hell Rodolfo Hernández is on Monday morning -- Colombia still hasn't really figured him out either. Be prepared for plenty of comparisons to Donald Trump or Silvio Berlusconi.

I heard in today's morning news that Rodolfo is a populist like Donald Trump who once praised Hitler

Rodolfo Hernández sees Colombia as a "real estate project". A country that needs to be demolished, in order to rebuild it on new foundations. A sample of the press coverage in Spain

https://twitter.com/cataoquendo/status/1530976739303624704?t=jMQ_Z6j-MRC8p70G7EZ...

[Velasco]

Oh My God

[Velasco]

This will be an extremely close runoff. I am more leftwing than rightwing, so in theory I should vote for Petro, but Petro does not know how to explain his controversial policies in a satisfactory manner, which leaves me many doubts about him. Rodolfo Hernández, on the other hand, is a populist candidate solely fix on corruption, and with little else to offer so far, the most I've heard him say is a policy of import substitution for agricultural products.

Maybe that's the problem.

 A candidate like Petro needs to explain his "controversial" policies in depth, while a *populist* like Rodolfo can win with memes and TikToks

I'm not a huge fan of Gustavo Petro myself, but I would be scared at the prospect of Rodolfo Hernández being elected (and he's looking like the favourite)

[Velasco]

1/ "I'm going to revive the countryside, leaving behind neoliberalpoliciesand violence..."

2/ "I'm going to reduce the size of the state, end corruption and replace inefficient public servants"

3/ "I'm going to reduce corruption (...)"

4/ "My government will be austere (...)"

I mean, these statements sound good to common people. The question is whether Rodolfo Hernández has drafted specific plans, or rather they are declarations of intent (I gather from Hash posts it's the latter, but I haven't checked)

By the way, "Ing" means "Ingeniero (engineer)"

[Velasco]

Several media outlets are calling the election right now. Petro presidente

[Velasco]

It's not polite leaders of states/countries expressing there opinions in public about the results of elections which took place in other countries

Politely or not, everybody gives opinions about everything. Nobody should be surprised by the statements of that rightwing givernor of Florida, a state where radicalized Latin American expats have a great influence.

Unsurpringly, a Peruvian Nobel Prize and former presidential candidate states that Colombians "have voted badly"

https://english.elpais.com/international/2022-06-21/mario-vargas-llosa-on-colombia-elections-they-have-voted-badly-lets-see-what-petro-does.html

 The event took place in Madrid, Spain, but it could just as well have taken place in Bogotá. By the time the writer Mario Vargas Llosa presented Madrid regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso with an award from his Fundación Internacional para la Libertad (FIL, the International Freedom Foundation) on Monday, everyone already knew that the big news of the day was the victory of the former M-19 guerrilla fighter and economist Gustavo Petro in Colombia’s election. After the ceremony, the Nobel Prize winner accompanied the Spanish conservative politician to the exit. There were cameras all around them. And in the brief space of time separating that moment from the televised statement by the outgoing president of Colombia, Iván Duque, Vargas Llosa analyzed the election results in four words: “They [Colombians] have voted badly.” (...)  

"Freedom Front"

[Velasco]

Vargas Llosa endorsed Keiko Fujomori against Pedro Castillo, Kast against Boric, Bolsonaro against Lula and Hernandez against Petro.

I am starting to think that the lesser of the evils in the runoff in Peru in 1990 was Alberto Fujimori

Let's not get as hyperbolic as him. I want to believe that Vargas Llosa wouldn't have castrated/attempted to genocide the indigenous. Though that makes his support for Keiko even worse.

Vargas Llosa is disgusting and I am certain his presidency would have been a failure, but there's no sign he has the criminal tendencies of Fujimori. Keep in mind that Vargas Llosa was a marxist in his youth who became an ardent neoliberal at a later age, that is to say, he's a convert. He began taking distance ftom the Cuban regime in the mid 1970s and evolved towards liberalism in the following years (he cites Hayek, Popper and Ortega y Gasset among his ",,masters"). By 1990 he was an enthusiast admirer of Thatcher and Reagan. Since then he has turned more rightwing, to the point that nowadays he's a committed fan of our Isabel Díaz Ayuso (the aristocratic Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo would be a better fit for him) and endorses the daughter of Alberto Fujimori.

However, regardless his past and present political views, Mario Vargas Llosa is an excellent writer. Possibly his masterpieces were written during his marxist phase, but his recent novels are still very well written. I'd like to think my attitude towards the famous writer is less sectarian than the attitude of Vargas Llosa towards leftwing politicians

[Velasco]

Serious question, is there a more right wing area in South America than El Poblado in Medellín? Those 85+% victories of the right that are common there must be something rare even among the wealthiest boroughs/neighborhoods in the continent.

If you want similar right-wing areas within big cities, take a look at Santiago's NE corner

Vitacura: Kast 83.3 / Boric 16.7

Keep in mind the second round of the last Chilean election was not particularly good for the right.

[Velasco]

Colombia's oil production reached a peak by 2014-2015 (more than 1M barrels per day) and has decreased significantly since then (742k barrels per day in Feb 2022), according to a graph I found in the page linked below.

https://tradingeconomics.com/colombia/crude-oil-production

By 2016 Colombia exported 79% of its oil production (912k barrels per day that year), but this share must have decreased alongside oil production. At this rate of decrease, I imagine Colombia would cease to be a net exporter in the near future. Oil-pumping capacity is equally or more important than oil reserves, for this capacity decreases over time making oil mining more costly. At a certain point, the capacity of extraction reaches a peak, no matter the effort and the investment displayed, so oil production reaches a plateau and then declines. This matter is very complex and technical for non-experts like me, but this is what happens in essence. Quite possibly fracking oil projects were developed as a consequence of that peak in conventional oil peoduction. However, fracking oil projects have been mostly unsuccessful outside the US, for this mining is economically ruinous and environmentally damaging. On the other hand, oil companies worldwide have defunded oil exploration drastically since 2014, for they look for profit and consider the best oil fields have been discovered already.

Diversifying economy and energy sources looks like a sensible policy (oil reserves will be still of strategic value,  otoh). Another question is the soundness of Petro's economic transition plan. He is apparently a staunch advocate of Green New Deal (aka Green Capitalism). I got from an interview with Coronell that Petro wants to build big solar and wind farms in La Guajira. Part of the electricity produced by those farms would be used to produce "green hydrogen" for export via Barranquilla (I assume mostly to the US).  The problem with photovoltaic panels and wind generators is that they need rare metals. In other words,  they are non-renewable devices that catch renewable energy. Hydro is the most reliable renewable source to date. Anyway I hope Petro is more succesful as President than he was as mayor of Bogotá