2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lfromnj]

What the heck is the purpose of that eastern shore tail?

$10 says DeSantis got lazy/tired of dealing with Tampa precincts.

If you ignore the water, it makes the seat look pretty compact.

Yeah, I think it's about perception.  An average person just looking at this map will think it's one of the least gerrymandered maps in the country because it looks really clean and there aren't a lot of weird shapes.  Ohio's map is very similar in this regard- neither look like gerrymanders to the naked eye.  On the other hand, something like the 2010s Maryland map or original 2010s Pennsylvania map have a bunch of crazy snakes.  That gets average people to feel that it's more of a gerrymander.

It's actually the second most compact map in the nation , I excluded single and dual district maps from this. single obviously and dual because they have a lot of deviation for the average quite easily.


Ohio is not like that and nor did they try. It definetly is quite ugly and  in many areas. Taking Cincinatti to Warren County is disgusting.  The unusual thing about DeSantis's map is it really does not take any incumbent into account other than maybe shoring up Salazar a few points.

The thing is "compactness", while it may affect public perception, doesn't really make a map any more or less gerrymandered, especially in a state like Florida where you have incredibly dense communities next to swamplands where no one lives.

Furthermore, a lot of the actual gerrymanders that do exist (IL, NY, TX) could've been made far more compact but equally brutal, just visually looks nicer.

I would agree that this Florida map is a tier below IL or TX's gerrymander though because it's compact, and the GOP didn't go out of the way to create true max packs or have all 20 of their districts be safe or even likely R in a normal cycle.

I still don't get why DeSantis didn't dismantle 20 if he's really for compactness over minority representation. It would make South Florida look a lot nicer without really affecting partisanship, and FL-20 could still be minority functioning.

He seems to have copied the legislature's South Florida. This may have given them a way to save face? I agree its still a gerrymander but compactness is one of the items listed .It seems atleast DeSantis listened to this unlike the OH GOP.

[Ferguson97]

What are the odds that the courts OK this?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What are the odds that the courts OK this?

Unclear

[lfromnj]

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2022/04/18/florida-democrats-criticize-ron-desantis-congressional-redistricting-maps/

“The problem is we in Florida are governed by a GOP that has decided to just throw up its hands and give in to the bully. We did our job. We even gave him a, not we, let me be clear. The Republicans who control the legislature gave him a backup map just in case he didn’t like the constitutional one. And he still vetoed both of them. Because why? Once you give people like this an inch, they take more than a mile, said Rep. Joseph. “This is a, make no mistake about this. This is an attack, a full-frontal attack on the voting rights laws that we have established in this state, both at the federal level and at the state level,” she said.

It seems like Florida Democrats are now admitting the map they all chided as unconstitutional which was the house's 10-4-14 map, is now constitutional.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take: Both FL and NY's maps will be used in 2022 but BOTH will be struck down in 2024

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jacobogles/status/1516439923083157514?cxt=HHwWlIC9qeu...

Wat

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jacobogles/status/1516439923083157514?cxt=HHwWlIC9qeu...

Wat

Ok that's it, I'm moving to FL to run for state party chair /s

[Pink Panther]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jacobogles/status/1516439923083157514?cxt=HHwWlIC9qeu...
Wat

Remember that this is the FL Dems. They do and say this stuff on a daily basis.

[lfromnj]

It still can't be understated how much the FL house may have screwed DeSantis over by drawing the Duval only seat. Dems for reason are still stuck on the snake seat but it was pretty clear there was an alternative option available.

[Devils30]

What are the odds that the courts OK this?

Unclear

I could see the courts ok'ing everything but restoring the old FL-5 for a 19-9.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What are the odds that the courts OK this?

Unclear

I could see the courts ok'ing everything but restoring the old FL-5 for a 19-9.

They could play it safe and do the State legislature's duval only district

[lfromnj]

What are the odds that the courts OK this?

Unclear

I could see the courts ok'ing everything but restoring the old FL-5 for a 19-9.

Nothing is likely going to happen for 2022 , restoring the old FL 5th is unlikely and Democrats will likely drop that once Al Lawson retires as there is no more need for such a district anymore.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1516806598680883211

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/ron-desantis-targets-black-held-congressional-seats-party-rcna19771

“This is DeSantis’ M.O.: What he cares about, he cares about deeply. And if you get in his way, he’s going to roll through you,” said state Sen. Jeff Brandes, a Tampa Republican. “Members don’t know him and don’t know what he’s going to do. And that not knowing is part of the reason they fear him.”

Brandes said DeSantis is particularly tough for Florida Republicans to go up against because of his skyrocketing profile within the party.

“This whole session was a showcase for DeSantis — a trial balloon for a White House campaign — and nationally he’s a 600-pound gorilla with the possibility of becoming an 800-pound gorilla, especially if he gets his way with these maps,” Brandes said.

Party Line other than Annette Taddeo who boycotted the session. So it does include senator Brandes voting with the Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Weird to think DeSantis map really only has 3 true Dem packs. Everything else is less than Biden + 20 iirc

[It’s so Joever]

Weird to think DeSantis map really only has 3 true Dem packs. Everything else is less than Biden + 20 iirc

Florida political geography more than anything. This still is an egregious gerrymander, Florida just seems to not have the same degree of geographical polarization as most other states and when you combine that with the VRA districts and the physical geography, a "true" pack is hard to make.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/apantazi/status/1517123145567805441

[BoiseBoy]

BREAKING: Florida man passes bad congressional map that will inevitably be challenged in court.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1517189598186807296

[lfromnj]

https://lwvfl.org/league-of-women-voters-of-florida-and-others-sue-over-gov-desantis-congressional-map/
First lawsuit
Overall fairly poor. Complaints about CD26 now 28 being made unwinnable despite it being the exact same margin. Complains about Orlando in a partisan perspective without even bringing up my specific complaint regarding Deland.  Complains about splitting St.Pete but then asks for the senate map which also splits St.Pete(slightly)

Also decides to complain about compactness which is pointless. No judge is going to strike this map down on being uncompact.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hopefully smarter people will take over later, but if this is struck down, I'm not expecting more than FL-5 being made into a duval only district

[GALeftist]

https://lwvfl.org/league-of-women-voters-of-florida-and-others-sue-over-gov-desantis-congressional-map/
First lawsuit
Overall fairly poor. Complaints about CD26 now 28 being made unwinnable despite it being the exact same margin. Complains about Orlando in a partisan perspective without even bringing up my specific complaint regarding Deland.  Complains about splitting St.Pete but then asks for the senate map which also splits St.Pete(slightly)

Also decides to complain about compactness which is pointless. No judge is going to strike this map down on being uncompact.

From reading it, I think the main thrust of the argument is that the map constitutes diminishment, which is probably smart. Diminishment is explicitly textually prohibited in the Florida constitution and it's basically impossible to argue that the map doesn't constitute diminishment. Anyway this was filed in Florida's 2nd circuit where it might actually have a chance. Worth keeping an eye on.

[lfromnj]

Hopefully smarter people will take over later, but if this is struck down, I'm not expecting more than FL-5 being made into a duval only district

 I would assume the St.Pete -Tampa district being cancelled as well. Unlikely to see any "rescue" for Orlando Democrats. Wouldn't be impossible to see the Miami Gerrymander cancelled but the Democrats voted for it and are asking for the senate map.

[lfromnj]

https://lwvfl.org/league-of-women-voters-of-florida-and-others-sue-over-gov-desantis-congressional-map/
First lawsuit
Overall fairly poor. Complaints about CD26 now 28 being made unwinnable despite it being the exact same margin. Complains about Orlando in a partisan perspective without even bringing up my specific complaint regarding Deland.  Complains about splitting St.Pete but then asks for the senate map which also splits St.Pete(slightly)

Also decides to complain about compactness which is pointless. No judge is going to strike this map down on being uncompact.

From reading it, I think the main thrust of the argument is that the map constitutes diminishment, which is probably smart. Diminishment is explicitly textually prohibited in the Florida constitution and it's basically impossible to argue that the map doesn't constitute diminishment. Anyway this was filed in Florida's 2nd circuit where it might actually have a chance. Worth keeping an eye on.

Another lawsuit with more resources should come. I am also not sure about the legality of this specific lawsuit considering DeSantis didn't even sign the map yet. I agree it shouldn't be ignored but this one is fairly weak. It even includes racial gerrymandering aspects in FL 14th when that clearly isn't a racial gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1517540905246408704

Again there is probably a valid complaint for Salazar's district but FL 26/28 is literally the exact same margin as before. This is dumb.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.cracked.com/image-pictofact-8489-15-weird-bits-of-news-that-make-our-high-school-selves-look-normal

Not sure why this brouhaha made the list but okay. Guess his partying with hot high school seniors while teaching post-college would be relatively normal from the perspective of a horny teenage boy

2. Florida’s governor has been given power to gerrymander as he pleases.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1517565663052582912

DeSantis says he already signed the maps.

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1517580635770130432