COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

[HisGrace]

Nope as long as tens of thousands of people are protesting in the streets, anyone has the right to go to church.

Churches and other buildings for worship are cramped, indoor environments though. It's not entirely comparable.

There also aren't anywhere near as many people in churches and despite being indoors they aren't standing as close together.

This argument only makes sense if the new standard is "no more social distancing outdoors" which I don't think is what anyone is pushing right now. There's no reason there should be different rules just because you're protesting.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Not sure if this has already been posted here or in another thread, but more than 1000 health professionals signed a letter supporting the BLM protests, but saying that *other* protests are still not good from a coronavirus perspective:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

"However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators' ability to gather and demand change. This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders."

This is what happens when political culture silences the majority of experts who do disagree with these protests. Let’s be honest, if a healthcare worker or epidemiologist said anything even slightly against these protests, he/she would be the target of a witch-hunting mob and would possibly lose their job.
We really are living in a post-factual society on both sides at this point.

The Right
"The pandemic is a hoax!"

"I have a right to kill grandma for a haircut!"

"Workers should be eager to die for billonaires!"

The Left

"We'll wear masks, but the government really needs to stop being cool with casually murdering our fellow citizens."

"Deploying soldiers against peaceful protesters isn't okay."

forumlurker: "Both sides do it!"

[It’s so Joever]

Not sure if this has already been posted here or in another thread, but more than 1000 health professionals signed a letter supporting the BLM protests, but saying that *other* protests are still not good from a coronavirus perspective:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

"However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators' ability to gather and demand change. This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders."

This is what happens when political culture silences the majority of experts who do disagree with these protests. Let’s be honest, if a healthcare worker or epidemiologist said anything even slightly against these protests, he/she would be the target of a witch-hunting mob and would possibly lose their job.
We really are living in a post-factual society on both sides at this point.

The Right
"The pandemic is a hoax!"

"I have a right to kill grandma for a haircut!"

"Workers should be eager to die for billonaires!"

The Left

"We'll wear masks, but the government really needs to stop being cool with casually murdering our fellow citizens."

"Deploying soldiers against peaceful protesters isn't okay."

forumlurker: "Both sides do it!"

Do you ever grow tired of being a partisan hack?
Viruses simply don’t care whether your intentions are good or not when you are in large crowds. They will still spread.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/7 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>

5/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,686,436 (+19,608 | Δ Change: ↓9.78% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 99,300 (+617 | Δ Change: ↓40.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

5/25:

• Cases: 1,706,224 (+19,788 | Δ Change: ↑0.92% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 99,805 (+505 | Δ Change: ↓18.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

5/26:

• Cases: 1,725,141 (+18,917 | Δ Change: ↓4.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
• Deaths: 100,579 (+774 | Δ Change: ↑53.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

5/27:

• Cases: 1,745,803 (+20,662 | Δ Change: ↑9.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 102,107 (+1,528 | Δ Change: ↑97.42% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)

5/28:

• Cases: 1,768,461 (+22,658 | Δ Change: ↑9.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 103,330 (+1,223 | Δ Change: ↓19.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)

5/29:

• Cases: 1,793,530 (+25,069 | Δ Change: ↑10.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 104,542 (+1,212 | Δ Change: ↓0.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/30:

• Cases: 1,816,820 (+23,290 | Δ Change: ↓7.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 105,557 (+1,015 | Δ Change: ↓16.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

5/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,837,165 (+20,345 | Δ Change: ↓12.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 106,190 (+633 | Δ Change: ↓37.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/1:

• Cases: 1,859,323 (+22,158 | Δ Change: ↑8.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 106,925 (+735 | Δ Change: ↑16.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

6/2:

• Cases: 1,881,205 (+21,882 | Δ Change: ↓1.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 108,059 (+1,134 | Δ Change: ↑54.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

6/3:

• Cases: 1,901,783 (+20,578 | Δ Change: ↓5.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)
• Deaths: 109,142 (+1,083 | Δ Change: ↓4.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

6/4:

• Cases: 1,924,051 (+22,268 | Δ Change: ↑8.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 110,173 (+1,031 | Δ Change: ↓4.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

6/5:

• Cases: 1,953,423 (+29,372 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 111,384 (+1,211 | Δ Change: ↑17.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.10%)

6/6 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,987,175 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↑14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.73%)
• Deaths: 112,057 (+673 | Δ Change: ↓44.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/7 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

[Grassroots]

Ayo record low death toll

[Holmes]

I think the lowest amount of deaths since 3/29 per Arch’s numbers.

[Dr. Arch]

I think the lowest amount of deaths since 3/29 per Arch’s numbers.

That seems to be the case, yes.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

So what's happening is heat isn't killing the virus? Huh.

In terms of the death toll, at least, it might be some combination of the virus becoming less deadly / us becoming more efficient in dealing with it / some states suppressing numbers to some extent. We know FL has engaged in this to some extent.

But no, heat itself is not enough. At its peak, worldwide, the virus was doing a fair bit of damage in places that have hot winters.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

So what's happening is heat isn't killing the virus? Huh.

In terms of the death toll, at least, it might be some combination of the virus becoming less deadly / us becoming more efficient in dealing with it / some states suppressing numbers to some extent. We know FL has engaged in this to some extent.

But no, heat itself is not enough. At its peak, worldwide, the virus was doing a fair bit of damage in places that have hot winters.

This is a conspiracy theory.  There is no evidence that any state is systematically undercounting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses.

[Koharu]

I don't think heat is the element that helps outdoors so much as sunlight. UV as a sanitizing force, etc.

And again, I think the protests are dangerous and I wish people weren't protesting right now, but the momentum would be lost in a few months, and people are protesting something that has been a problem for hundreds of years. I still think that they should be distancing as much as possible, but just as I won't deny others had the right to protest, so too do these people have the right.

I would love to join them and in normal circumstances would be joining then but have not because of the virus. The same is true of many people I know. So there are many aware of the potential danger and many that would like to be out who are not.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

So what's happening is heat isn't killing the virus? Huh.

In terms of the death toll, at least, it might be some combination of the virus becoming less deadly / us becoming more efficient in dealing with it / some states suppressing numbers to some extent. We know FL has engaged in this to some extent.

But no, heat itself is not enough. At its peak, worldwide, the virus was doing a fair bit of damage in places that have hot winters.

This is a conspiracy theory.  There is no evidence that any state is systematically undercounting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses.

Wow. I guess a desperate (and totally unnecessary) effort to make Donald Trump look bad must be why that well-known hotbed of liberal conspiracy-fodder, The Economist, reported late last month that,

Official covid-19 death tolls still under-count the true number of fatalities

After trailing behind the death tolls of many European countries at first, America’s official covid-19 death count rose sharply in April. By May 27th it had passed 100,000 victims, more than any other country. Most American states do not publish recent records of deaths from all causes. But New York City, the worst-affected area, has provided reliable weekly data up to May 9th, as have the states of New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts and Michigan.

Between March 15th (the week New York passed 50 official fatalities) and May 9th, the city recorded 20,100 official covid-19 deaths, according to the revised estimate. This figure is 86% as high as the 23,500 excess deaths from all causes registered in the same period.

After New York City, the most affected area in the United States has been New Jersey, which has a similar population and suffered 12,300 excess deaths between March 15th and May 9th. The state only includes people who tested positive in its official death toll, which was 9,100 in the same period—74% as high as the excess.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

So what's happening is heat isn't killing the virus? Huh.

In terms of the death toll, at least, it might be some combination of the virus becoming less deadly / us becoming more efficient in dealing with it / some states suppressing numbers to some extent. We know FL has engaged in this to some extent.

But no, heat itself is not enough. At its peak, worldwide, the virus was doing a fair bit of damage in places that have hot winters.

This is a conspiracy theory.  There is no evidence that any state is systematically undercounting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses.

Please read up on a subject before calling it a conspiracy theory. See the evidence above. There's more in the form of a statistically significant surge on "pneumonia cases" in Florida as well.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

So what's happening is heat isn't killing the virus? Huh.

In terms of the death toll, at least, it might be some combination of the virus becoming less deadly / us becoming more efficient in dealing with it / some states suppressing numbers to some extent. We know FL has engaged in this to some extent.

But no, heat itself is not enough. At its peak, worldwide, the virus was doing a fair bit of damage in places that have hot winters.

This is a conspiracy theory.  There is no evidence that any state is systematically undercounting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses.

Please read up on a subject before calling it a conspiracy theory. See the evidence above.

I have read up on the subject.  There's nothing that Florida is doing that is systematically under-reporting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses inconsistent with how other states are reporting.  If you have actual evidence to point to, please provide it, but until then stop peddling conspiracy theories.   

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

So what's happening is heat isn't killing the virus? Huh.

In terms of the death toll, at least, it might be some combination of the virus becoming less deadly / us becoming more efficient in dealing with it / some states suppressing numbers to some extent. We know FL has engaged in this to some extent.

But no, heat itself is not enough. At its peak, worldwide, the virus was doing a fair bit of damage in places that have hot winters.

This is a conspiracy theory.  There is no evidence that any state is systematically undercounting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses.

Please read up on a subject before calling it a conspiracy theory. See the evidence above.

I have read up on the subject.  There's nothing that Florida is doing that is systematically under-reporting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses inconsistent with how other states are reporting.  If you have actual evidence to point to, please provide it, but until then stop peddling conspiracy theories.   

Did you read the article above at all? I never said it was a systematic undercount, but if it came off like that, that wasn't the intent. "It's been reported in Florida" would have been better phrasing.

The numbers support that it is being undercounted, whether you like it or not. Stories of such nature have come out of Florida, where I first heard about it.

Experts of all stripes agree on that, even Fauci pointed it out.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.

So what's happening is heat isn't killing the virus? Huh.

In terms of the death toll, at least, it might be some combination of the virus becoming less deadly / us becoming more efficient in dealing with it / some states suppressing numbers to some extent. We know FL has engaged in this to some extent.

But no, heat itself is not enough. At its peak, worldwide, the virus was doing a fair bit of damage in places that have hot winters.

This is a conspiracy theory.  There is no evidence that any state is systematically undercounting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses.

Please read up on a subject before calling it a conspiracy theory. See the evidence above.

I have read up on the subject.  There's nothing that Florida is doing that is systematically under-reporting COVID-19 deaths or diagnoses inconsistent with how other states are reporting.  If you have actual evidence to point to, please provide it, but until then stop peddling conspiracy theories.   

Did you read the article above at all? I never said it was a systematic undercount, but if it came off like that, that wasn't the intent. "It's been reported in Florida" would have been better phrasing.

The numbers support that it is being undercounted, whether you like it or not. Stories of such nature have come out of Florida, where I first heard about it.

Experts of all stripes agree on that, even Fauci pointed it out.

Of course a 100% accurate death count is going to be impossible; however, it admittedly came off in your post that Florida is actively engaging in suppressing numbers but that might not have been what you meant.  I don't see any article you've linked to in any of your most recent posts. 

There's just been too much bad reporting about Florida's response (from the cause of varying ME vs FDOH counts, to the GIS specialist who was fired, etc.) that borders on downright conspiracy. 

[emailking]

Liking the low death number (in the sense that it's much less than recent numbers).

Still 20K cases though.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It looks like the only state that's a big worry now is Arizona. Utah's new cases dropped a lot yesterday, and it turns out most of the spike there was from one meatpacking plant in Cache County.

Even in Arizona, most of the increase is from increased testing.

Hotspots usually don't last long unless it's a huge city like New York. Some towns that were hotspots a few weeks ago like Gallup, N.M., are just like any other town now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1269995211817713666

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That graph doesn't even start at 0!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Are people even able to conceptualize the idea that pandemics don't last forever? I don't think there's any doubt that the numbers in the U.S. are much better than they were (Worldometers had only 373 deaths yesterday. and the rate of positive cases is almost down to 4% now), but a lot of people apparently believe everything is still all doom.

But it's not. There's so much negativity from websites trying to profit off this crisis that people have become conditioned to believe that there will never be any positivity.

I lost a lot of respect for websites I once trusted because they try using this crisis for their own profit. Their name is mud now.

[emailking]

Because we're being mindful of the possibility of a 2nd wave that dwarfs this one, as happened in 1918, and are trying to prevent that. We don't fully understand why that happened then or if it's even a possibility now, but that's why a lot of us are weary about just going back to normal before we know more. Yes we understand pandemics eventually end and things are better in the US than they were a couple months ago. That doesn't mean they aren't bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are people even able to conceptualize the idea that pandemics don't last forever? I don't think there's any doubt that the numbers in the U.S. are much better than they were (Worldometers had only 373 deaths yesterday. and the rate of positive cases is almost down to 4% now), but a lot of people apparently believe everything is still all doom.

But it's not. There's so much negativity from websites trying to profit off this crisis that people have become conditioned to believe that there will never be any positivity.

I lost a lot of respect for websites I once trusted because they try using this crisis for their own profit. Their name is mud now.

Are people even able to conceptualize the idea that some improvement doesn't necessarily mean everything is OK now?

Deaths are indeed much looking much better.  That's great news.  However, cases and hospitalizations in some areas are trending upward.  That's not great news. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

Eh, WHO "advice" has been all over the place throughout the entire pandemic.  Remember when they said there was no evidence of immunity for people who had already been infected?