COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's crazy to me that The risk of blood clots from birth control pills is 1 in 1,000 and it is considered a low-risk side effect. Yet Woman takes those pills every year and I don't see anybody going crazy over that

But when 6 out 7 million people gets blood clots from the Johnson and Johnson. That is apparently more than enough evidence for them to pause the Vaccine during a pandemic

I can't believe I'm actually agreeing with Ben Shapiro of all people on this
https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1381941944167899146

I mostly agree, but "6 out 7 million people" stat is missleading. Those who get very rare and dangerous blood clots are younger healthier women that get vaccinated at least 2 weeks ago. Same with AstraZeneca. How many of those 7 millions are younger healthier women that have vaccinated more than 2 weeks ago? Probably a couple ten of thousands. May be even less.

All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.

Re: blood clots from birth control pills.
Not all "blood clots" are the same.

[jamestroll]

It's crazy to me that The risk of blood clots from birth control pills is 1 in 1,000 and it is considered a low-risk side effect. Yet Woman takes those pills every year and I don't see anybody going crazy over that

But when 6 out 7 million people gets blood clots from the Johnson and Johnson. That is apparently more than enough evidence for them to pause the Vaccine during a pandemic

I can't believe I'm actually agreeing with Ben Shapiro of all people on this
https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1381941944167899146

I mostly agree, but "6 out 7 million people" stat is missleading. Those who get very rare and dangerous blood clots are younger healthier women that get vaccinated at least 2 weeks ago. Same with AstraZeneca. How many of those 7 millions are younger healthier women that have vaccinated more than 2 weeks ago? Probably a couple ten of thousands. May be even less.

All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.

Re: blood clots from birth control pills.
Not all "blood clots" are the same.

So? They are not more important than the nearly 600,000 people who have died from covid 19.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For anyone close to Atlanta still looking for a vaccination, you can get Pfizer at MBS *today* with no appointment:

Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine is being offered without an appointment at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta for anyone age 16 and above, from 9:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m.

Fulton County offered the vaccine without an appointment Monday and Tuesday. The vaccine is free, with no insurance required. Parking is free, and no ID is required.

https://www.ajc.com/news/pfizer-vaccine-offered-without-appointment-tuesday-at-mercedes-benz-stadium/O6VNIQHFDFGHZMISAIPXZZ2GRY/

[Sir Mohamed]

Strongly oppose pausing J&J vaccinations. Far more people could die as a consequence of not getting their shot. It's out of question the vaccine prevents pretty much 100% of deaths from COVID, which is far, far more than might die from thrombisis. It's not even proven J&J is the cause of said complications.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's crazy to me that The risk of blood clots from birth control pills is 1 in 1,000 and it is considered a low-risk side effect. Yet Woman takes those pills every year and I don't see anybody going crazy over that

But when 6 out 7 million people gets blood clots from the Johnson and Johnson. That is apparently more than enough evidence for them to pause the Vaccine during a pandemic

I can't believe I'm actually agreeing with Ben Shapiro of all people on this
https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1381941944167899146

I mostly agree, but "6 out 7 million people" stat is missleading. Those who get very rare and dangerous blood clots are younger healthier women that get vaccinated at least 2 weeks ago. Same with AstraZeneca. How many of those 7 millions are younger healthier women that have vaccinated more than 2 weeks ago? Probably a couple ten of thousands. May be even less.

All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.

Re: blood clots from birth control pills.
Not all "blood clots" are the same.

So? They are not more important than the nearly 600,000 people who have died from covid 19.

First. It's not how it works.
Second. I guess that you are not a healthier younger woman. I doubt that you would take a vaccine with, perhaps (we still don't know), 1 out 1000 chance to kill you.

[jamestroll]

Strongly oppose pausing J&J vaccinations. Far more people could die as a consequence of not getting their shot. It's out of question the vaccine prevents pretty much 100% of deaths from COVID, which is far, far more than might die from thrombisis. It's not even proven J&J is the cause of said complications.

I am done.. I am done.. I am done.. I am done.. I am done.. with all this BS.

My conspiracy theories have been proven correct.

[Del Tachi]

Even if this situation turns out to be nothing in the end the damage is Done

Johnson and Johnson may have just made the vaccine hesitancy issue even worse. Now right wing conspiracy theorists online are going to use this moment to convince a lot of trump supporters to never take any vaccine including moderna

To be fair, isn't the FDA (a neutral, scientific Federal agency headed by a Biden appointee, no less) suspending use of the J&J vaccine actually a pretty good reason to be more hesitant about the rush to quick, universal vaccination?  And that's to say nothing of how much worse it would be for vaccine hesitancy for a potentially dangerous vaccine to remain on market? 

That you chalk such a reaction up to "right-wing conspiracy theory" shows zealously irrational the "pro-science" virtue signaling has gotten in certain corners, lol

[roxas11]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/547888-white-house-johnson-johnson-pause-wont-have-significant-impact-on

Well the good news is that the White house has confirmed the the pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine won’t have a “significant impact” on its national vaccination effort as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine supply remains steady and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine makes up less than 5 percent of the recorded shots in arms in the United States to date

[Del Tachi]

Strongly oppose pausing J&J vaccinations. Far more people could die as a consequence of not getting their shot. It's out of question the vaccine prevents pretty much 100% of deaths from COVID, which is far, far more than might die from thrombisis. It's not even proven J&J is the cause of said complications.

Science doesn't care about your feelings

[Sir Mohamed]

Strongly oppose pausing J&J vaccinations. Far more people could die as a consequence of not getting their shot. It's out of question the vaccine prevents pretty much 100% of deaths from COVID, which is far, far more than might die from thrombisis. It's not even proven J&J is the cause of said complications.

Science doesn't care about your feelings

Math doesn't either.

[Former President tack50]

Strongly oppose pausing J&J vaccinations. Far more people could die as a consequence of not getting their shot. It's out of question the vaccine prevents pretty much 100% of deaths from COVID, which is far, far more than might die from thrombisis. It's not even proven J&J is the cause of said complications.

Science doesn't care about your feelings

Math doesn't either.

Not sure about the J&J vaccine, but per UK studies for AstraZeneca (with similar issues) your chances of getting blood clots are higher than your chances of being hospitalized for Covid if you are above like 30.

So the US (and other countries tbh) might be well served by not using J&J in people under the age of 40 from now on..

However the messaging needs to be clear, rational and consistent which is something all European governments have failed miserably with

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm actually somewhat ambivalent about the J&J vaccine pause.

On one hand, it does seem like this side effect is extremely rare.
On the other hand, it does seem fairly likely the clots are in fact attributable to the vaccine given the parallel evidence from the Oxford vaccine.  
And these clots are really bad.  I don't know if anyone died of them yet in the US, but about 1/3 of those in Europe who experienced them died.  Obviously this is much more severe than covid itself.

I would still say the risk/reward is very much in favor of continuing to administer the J&J vaccine if this alternative were not vaccinating at all.

However, J&J constitutes a very small portion of US vaccinations so far, and would constitute an even small portion in the next coming week due to the distribution shortfall.  And by contrast, the build-up in Pfizer/Moderna supply has been really strong.

So if the alternative to J&J is just getting Pfizer/Moderna a week or two later, a pause might be sensible.

[Del Tachi]

It's crazy to me that The risk of blood clots from birth control pills is 1 in 1,000 and it is considered a low-risk side effect. Yet Woman takes those pills every year and I don't see anybody going crazy over that

But when 6 out 7 million people gets blood clots from the Johnson and Johnson. That is apparently more than enough evidence for them to pause the Vaccine during a pandemic

I can't believe I'm actually agreeing with Ben Shapiro of all people on this
https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1381941944167899146

Six reported cases.  In Britain, reports of blood clots from the AZ vaccine tripled after doctors knew to start looking for them.  19 people have died.

Your also confusing absolute with relative risk.  The absolute risk from the J&J vaccine appears to be very low, but it has to be put in context of the risk posed by COVID-19.

20% of COVID of hospitalized COVID patients develop blood clots, but maybe only 1% of people who get COVID in the U.S. get hospitalized for it (the real number is tricky to calculate since we only know the # of positive tests.)  So the risk of getting a blood clot from COVID is 20% of 1%, or 1 in 500.

So maybe the risk of catching COVID and getting a bad complication is higher than this specific adverse side effect, but that assumption may not hold true for all groups (i.e., young people.)

[Zaybay]

The sensationalism surrounding this is something else. Just to go over some things I've seen:

-No, the vaccination campaign is not going to be hurt from a supply-perspective because of this news. J&J only made up 5% of vaccinations and it's been noted earlier that the company was having a lot of trouble rolling out their supply compared to M/P. Even if the end-result is J&J being pulled completely, we would still have more than enough vaccines.

-No, the pandemic is not going to last forever. That's just dumb. Get a grip.

-No, this won't cause everyone to just not get vaccinated. This does give a reason for folks to be hesitant about J&J, and it may lead to an increase in vaccine-hesitancy overall, but on the other hand the same factors that have been decreasing vaccine hesitancy (the end of the pandemic, the fact that people's friends/loved-ones are getting vaccinated with no symptoms, etc.) are still at play here.

-Yes, this is a perfectly reasonable move for the FDA to make, since these side-effects may not be worth it to certain demographics (young women in particular). That's the whole point of taking a pause, to gauge what to do. A very likely scenario is that they just make the J&J vaccine more selective after a week, say, only for men or women over the age of 65.

[roxas11]

Even if this situation turns out to be nothing in the end the damage is Done

Johnson and Johnson may have just made the vaccine hesitancy issue even worse. Now right wing conspiracy theorists online are going to use this moment to convince a lot of trump supporters to never take any vaccine including moderna

To be fair, isn't the FDA (a neutral, scientific Federal agency headed by a Biden appointee, no less) suspending use of the J&J vaccine actually a pretty good reason to be more hesitant about the rush to quick, universal vaccination?  And that's to say nothing of how much worse it would be for vaccine hesitancy for a potentially dangerous vaccine to remain on market?  

That you chalk such a reaction up to "right-wing conspiracy theory" shows zealously irrational the "pro-science" virtue signaling has gotten in certain corners, lol

Wow taking about twisiting my words

I have never been the type on here to virtue signal to anybody about science nor Have I been one of those people who wanted to just keep things locked down forever. The fact it rather you or I like it or not there is a real Vacaccine hesitancy among Trump supporters right now.

This is not something that I am just making up, nor was it something I was saying in order to show trump supporter how Pro science I am lol

The harsh truth is sadly there are people on the right who are going on social media and spreading Disinformation about these vacancies. Again, I'm not saying that to put down trump supporters nor I'm saying it to virtue signal to them about science. I'm saying it because I don't want anybody on the left or on the right to die from the horrible virus and my fear is that those conspiracy theorist are going to use this info to scare more people away from taking every vaccine not just Johnson & Johnson

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

NyT

The authorities in Ohio, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, Nebraska, Georgia, Indiana, Texas and Virginia said on Tuesday that they would follow the call from federal health agencies to pause the administration of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine after six women in the United States developed a rare disorder involving blood clots within about two weeks of vaccination.

CVS, the nation’s largest retail pharmacy chain, also said that it would immediately stop its use of Johnson & Johnson vaccinations and was emailing customers whose appointments would be canceled. A spokesman said that CVS would reschedule appointments “as soon as possible.”

[GeneralMacArthur]

I'm curious what the next step would even be for such a thing.  There's only six cases.  Are they just going to do a super-deep-dive on those six cases to determine what caused them?  Or are they going to call every single person who got J+J to make sure they didn't also get these symptoms, and then just say "1 in 300,000 risk of potentially fatal blood clots in women under the age of 65" based on the available evidence?

Anyone know how these things work?  If I was a vaccine developer I would be so frustrated and angry right now.  Sorry our massive trial study didn't catch a 1-in-a-million issue!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

They probably will tell doctors how to treat this rare type. The "normal" treatment may be dangerous.

Federal officials are concerned that doctors may not be trained to look for the rare disorder if recipients of the vaccine develop symptoms of it. The federal health agencies said Tuesday morning that “treatment of this specific type of blood clot is different from the treatment that might typically be administered” for blood clots.

“Usually, an anticoagulant drug called heparin is used to treat blood clots. In this setting, administration of heparin may be dangerous, and alternative treatments need to be given,” the statement said.

Perhaps, they will call and tell look after symptoms.

“For people who recently got the vaccine within the last couple of weeks, they should be aware, to look for any symptoms. If you receive the vaccine and develop severe headaches, abdominal pain, leg pain or shortness of breath, you should contact your health care provider and seek medical treatment,” she said. She emphasized that an emergency meeting of the C.D.C.’s outside advisory committee, which has been scheduled for Wednesday, to discuss how to handle the vaccine in the future is made up of independent experts.

All from NyT article.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1381741680903262212

This is sheer idiocy by DeSantis.  Cruising is one industry that needs to take every possible safeguard against the virus.

Cruise ships were some of the worst spreaders of COVID-19. They can be made safe if crews and staffs are appropriately immunized against COVID-19. I treat my vaccination card as if it were a passport. Maybe the proof of inoculation can be an official amendment to a passport or part of an application to a initial or renewed passport.

Cruise lines need to allay fears of COVID-19.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Six reported cases.  In Britain, reports of blood clots from the AZ vaccine tripled after doctors knew to start looking for them.  19 people have died.

Out of about twenty million or so jabs administered. Meanwhile, over 125,000 people here have died of Covid during the past twelve months.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1381800561276825603

[pbrower2a]

When I get a dog, I will insist that people who get close be vaccinated against COVID-19. It will be some time before there will be veterinary inoculations. Dogs have contracted and died from COVID-19. I do not take the death of a beloved pooch lightly.

Just for the sake of the family pet -- get inoculated!

[Sirius_]

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1381741680903262212

This is sheer idiocy by DeSantis.  Cruising is one industry that needs to take every possible safeguard against the virus.

Map of states that will benefit from this policy:

[jamestroll]

Six reported cases.  In Britain, reports of blood clots from the AZ vaccine tripled after doctors knew to start looking for them.  19 people have died.

Out of about twenty million or so jabs administered. Meanwhile, over 125,000 people here have died of Covid during the past twelve months.

Exactly.

Any of these vaccine side effects are literally nothing compared to covid symptoms.  All this world wide suffering is going to make me lose my damn mind.

[Zaybay]

I'm curious what the next step would even be for such a thing.  There's only six cases.  Are they just going to do a super-deep-dive on those six cases to determine what caused them?  Or are they going to call every single person who got J+J to make sure they didn't also get these symptoms, and then just say "1 in 300,000 risk of potentially fatal blood clots in women under the age of 65" based on the available evidence?

Anyone know how these things work?  If I was a vaccine developer I would be so frustrated and angry right now.  Sorry our massive trial study didn't catch a 1-in-a-million issue!

If we are to look to a similar vaccine, we can see where the issue arises. For the AstraZeneca vaccine, it similarly was just a few sporadic cases that were identified. Big whoop. But once government regulators and scientists started to look into the issue, the number of clots identified dramatically increased.

That's particularly important to remember, the key here is that the clots may be tied to the vaccine, and if that's the case (which it likely is) then there could be many more instances of clots that have gone un-recorded. To use an analogy, the blood clots are Waldo from a Where's Waldo book. If the doctors, scientists, patients, and government regulators don't know what Waldo looks like, many cases of him appearing on a page go unnoticed. Once Waldo is identified, however, the number of spottings dramatically increase because we now know what to look for.

As for the next step for the FDA, its rather simple. They have to do an evaluation of the J&J vaccine, to see where the risk for taking it outweighs the risk of COVID. For instance, the agency may pool over the numbers and deem that young women in particular are more threatened by the vaccine's chance of clots than by COVID, and so new guidelines would be put into place. The week pause in distribution is also to help doctors and medical personnel get prepped for identifying potential clots in patients, and the subsequent procedure for how to assist them.