Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlas-style

It feels very reminiscient of 2018, except with a few states flipped and the margins much stronger for the left/weaker for the right.

If anybody has state-by-state results for the first (or second) round of 2018, I can try to make an Atlas-style swing map to go with this.

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultados_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2018
Here you go

[Pivaru]

The Santa Catarina gubernatorial race is going to the second round, Jorginho Melo, from PL and Décio Lima, from PT will advance. The incumbent governor, Carlos Moises is out. Melo is obviously very favored.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Man, polling is a joke. A joke.

We are looking at a *8 point* polling miss in the Brazilian election

To be fair Globe Elections UN final poll had a 4.2% lead for Lula which matches his current lead.  Perhaps Globe Elections UN is the Trafalgar of Brazil?

Someone remind me to go into the Israeli election thread in a month and go "Holy crap polling is so good" when the polls end up being within 1 seat of the final margin.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro now also crosses 50 million

[Mike88]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

What % of Bolsonaro's voters are some kind of evangelical?

[Adam Griffin]

CNN Brasil, in classic US fashion and dragging its heels, just projected a second round after the literal government calls it, lol.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

The reason is that second-round polls will clearly show Bolsonaro well behind Lula.  For the Bolsonaro camp to make sure their voters show up the polls have to be discredited.  Of course, the first round polls did not need much help to achieve this Bolsonaro camp goal.

[Sestak]

Official website:

Eleição matematicamente definida (Segundo turno)

[Mike88]

2nd round now official.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I've seen some tweets from Brazilian Lula supporters and a lot of them are very disappointed over these  1st round results. They feel that Bolsonaro should have been trounced like the polls suggested (and because Bolsonaro is evil).

Honestly, I don't blame them. I don't trust that Lula will win in the 2nd round (until the results are official and there's no legitimate coup attempt by Bolsonaro). I'm not putting my confidence in Brazilian voters in 2022. Sorry.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

What % of Bolsonaro's voters are some kind of evangelical?

I don't know if there's any way to know this exactly, but Evangelicals in Brazil are way, way, way to the right of Catholics, that much is for sure.

[jaichind]

CNN Brasil, in classic US fashion and dragging its heels, just projected a second round, lol.

I guess they are still haunted by the USA 2000 fiasco

[Adam Griffin]

CNN Brasil, in classic US fashion and dragging its heels, just projected a second round, lol.

I guess they are still haunted by the USA 2000 fiasco

Literally the election commission called it - that's the only reason why they even bothered calling it this late.

[Mike88]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

What % of Bolsonaro's voters are some kind of evangelical?

He was leading Evangelicals like almost 2 to 1.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

What % of Bolsonaro's voters are some kind of evangelical?

He was leading Evangelicals like almost 2 to 1.

I guess that means something in the ballpark of the low 40s to early 50s, then.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If anyone's wondering how the right wing Brazilians are reacting, here's an example:

Excellent result for Bolsonaro and for the right in Brazil! We won what we needed in the 1st round: we won the majority of senators and a significant federal and state bench. That can't be changed later. We also have governors well on their way. More than that: we showed that the pollsters were really all wrong. They had Lula in front of Bolso, but the difference was much smaller than they claimed. Bolsonaro got a lot more votes than they thought.

Second round is another election. It won't be 4 percentage points that will make a difference. Ball forward, we have to use everything to win this battle. I think the difficulty was the lack of candidates and structure in the northeast. We can improve in the 2nd round. I will ask earnestly for those who follow me to avoid criticizing northeast voters. They have the right to vote for whoever they want. This does not make them better or worse than all other voters in Brazil. Positive attitude: let's win this one!

And of course: There was no fraud. Stop with the loser talk. That doesn't help at all. Ball forward and we'll win this game.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know if there's any way to know this exactly, but Evangelicals in Brazil are way, way, way to the right of Catholics, that much is for sure.

All I know is that they're capital 'H' Heretics and thus not in any meaningful sense Christians, but there's no clear relationship between that and their politics, even if there might be some rather more complex ones.

[rones358]

I always thought the polling was wrong. I thought it was super questionable these polls that had the between 50-60% of the electorate with a household income of up to 2 minimum salaries when the latest study in 2021 by PNAD had the number at 41%. Bolsonaro was generally ahead in all other income categories with a household income above 2 minimum salaries. Additionally I thought the state polling was an absolute joke with Lula winning comfortable in states like Sao Paulo, Rio or Rio Grande do Sul.

However people that want to see Bolsonaro defeated need not despair, this is a classic case of falling below expectations in terms of the margin, but if the goal was to beat Bolsonaro, that is still very likely to happen. Lula is more likely to increase his lead (slightly) in the 2nd round than lose it.

The congress that its been elected is pretty conservative, and the governors outside of the North East are predominantly allied to Bolsonaro. Lula is very much likely to win in the 2nd round but he will have a very hostile congress and will have to govern a lot more moderate than many of his supporters would like. This is going to be a challenge.

[Adam Griffin]

Looking like a 5-point win for Lula at this point (48.3-43.3). Assuming universal turnout parity in the second round (I know, but bear with it), even just a bit over half of Gomes voters going for him basically puts Lula at 50. That's ignoring anyone else who I'm sure will pad it a bit more.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lula has now crossed 48%.

[DavidB.]

Bolsonaro's raw vote is higher than last time. Is this due to higher turnout (as a percentage) or is it because of population growth?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Is 48.5% possible? If so, I'll be completely satisfied with tonights results and consider it a victory worth celebration.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is 48.5% possible? If so, I'll be completely satisfied with tonights results and consider it a victory worth celebration.

Probably right around there, 48.4% or so if consistent with the last few batches that have come in.

Some of the precincts should be 70-80% Lula based on how they voted in 2018.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Swing map. Should be accurate within 1-2%, vote totals changed throughout.