PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Torie]

I think Oz wins by 4-5 points based on the national environment based on Republican voters holding their noses for him. No poll can convince me otherwise; I'll believe Fetterman winning when I see it. Oz's issues won't matter; all swing voters care about is MUH GAS PRICES!

Oz comes across to me as an inoffensive  well meaning nice guy, even if somewhat naive. I suspect he will perform at about the partisan baseline.

[Torie]

This may become a case where Fetterman's odds go up as the environment worsens for Democrats, since the possibility of this seat deciding control of the Senate is really the main thing buoying Oz. I don't see Pennsylvania voters preferring him over Fetterman on a personal level.

You really think voters read the Cook Report to see what the latest handicapping is right before they vote, and a significant number would vote for Fetterman if he is the 49th Dem elected, but not the 50th?

[Torie]

This may become a case where Fetterman's odds go up as the environment worsens for Democrats, since the possibility of this seat deciding control of the Senate is really the main thing buoying Oz. I don't see Pennsylvania voters preferring him over Fetterman on a personal level.

You really think voters read the Cook Report to see what the latest handicapping is right before they vote, and a significant number would vote for Fetterman if he is the 49th Dem elected, but not the 50th?

No, but people generally have an idea of the election's vibes, in my experience. I personally know a lot of moderates who voted R downballot in 2016 because they thought Hillary was a lock but D in 2020 because they thought Trump was the favorite (despite polling to the contrary). Of course, this is Atlanta, so they probably moved left significantly in the interim, but nevertheless.

You run with a really, really strange group of people then. 

[Torie]

Wow, as one with a heart condition, Fetterman most definitely sounds like he has one, and one that is worse than mine. He is really struggling to find the air to speak, which is what happens when you heart is not pumping enough oxygen into your blood. Very sad. I empathize with the man.

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1559000551576244226

[Torie]

Is Fetterman going to get away with basically staying in hiding for the balance of the campaign?

[Torie]

In case you were wondering why Fetterman's lead is fading away, this might provide you with the answer. Yes, you guessed it, the guy lost 10 points with college educated voters.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fetterman-oz-polls/

[Torie]

Oz has time for Fox News, but not to sit for any editorial board meetings where *he* has to answer questions.

Funny how most of the press is silent on this, but Fetterman is the one who must answer "questions" about his candidacy

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1580323396679630849

Fetterman may and in some cases does have policy views outside of the mainstream for PA, but at least he knows something about public policy. Oz does not know much about public policy, and does not seem particularly interested in it, which makes one wonder why he ran for a job I don't think he would enjoy much, and it isn't as if he needs the money. All very puzzling.

In any event, Oz was wise to duck the editorial boards. The last thing he needs are editorials from the two major newspapers in PA stating that Oz while a pleasant chap showed a shocking last of knowledge on public policy issues, and is not qualified to serve, and as to Fetterman, whatever his issues, and lack of candor perhaps about his health, is qualified to serve.  In other words, the last thing you need are the twin newspapers in big bold letters characterizing you as clueless. 

All of that said, Oz might well win. The news stories are not good for the Dems right now, and will not be getting better for them in the next month, and some of the bad headlines are due to policy mistakes. That is why I think control of the Senate now is a 50-50 proposition. That canny old man Mitch is right on that one. We shall see.

[Torie]

All the world is a stage fraud.

That seems to be more and more the case.

[Torie]

Fetterman, like Herschel Walker, has a low bar to meet tonight. If he can hold his own against Oz, he will be viewed as the winner. If Oz is too aggressive with him or attacks him in a manner perceived as "unfair", than Fetterman will be viewed sympathetically. Oz has a tight rope to walk.

My impression is that a decisive number of voters in PA have doubts about both candidates, both as to their grasp of the issues, and plans to address them, both as to character issues, and yes, Fetterman's capacity to serve. If one candidate can mitigate the doubts about himself substantially more than the other candidate about themself, I think that is the race.

Yes, I think both candidates have a lot to prove to the voters. Both are flawed candidates.

[Torie]

Link for the debate?

Maybe this will work:

https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania-senate-race/live-at-8pm-fetterman-oz-to-battle-in-exclusive-pennsylvania-senate-debate/amp/

[Torie]

Looks like the media has decided to give the election to Oz after tonight. As I predicted, Fetterman is held to a significantly higher standard than Walker, who was significantly more incoherent. Will be very hard for Democrats to win this now.

Far more significant will be the take of the two power newspapers in PA. Oz obviously hopes to have the same kind of take coverage as to the AJC had on the Walker-Warnock debate.

[Torie]

I asked my far more woke oriented partner what he thought. He said Fetterman was a  basket case, and often incoherent, but despite that thought Fetterman came across more real than the more synthetic Oz. My opinion is that real as opposed to synthetic politicians are a rarity.

[Torie]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022

[Torie]

Centrist bashing has certainly become a popular sport, but don't be surprised if they are not there for you when it counts. And while their psephological heft may be waning as it is almost everywhere, as the bases of both parties retreat behind the barricades of anger, frustration and angst, sometimes spilling over into paranoia, in places like PA, they still hold the balance of power.

I really don't understand myself why PA Dems went so decisively for Fetterman over Lamb, and maybe Lamb just grates on people, but they did.

[Torie]

To be a contrarian, I don't think abortion is going to sway many votes in PA. Nobody thinks PA is going to ban abortion, or even change its law, and nobody thinks who is in the Senate is going to matter as to PA's law.

I think the election in PA turns on Fetterman's capacity to serve, and economic issues. Oz is not very good at reassuring voters hard pressed financially that he is committed to protecting their interests, and that is a weakness given his lavish life style and celebrity status. Fetterman may strike some as too much of an oddball to be very effective. At this point, TV ads I think are largely a waste of money.

Fetterman's debate performance was poor, but Oz did not do much to sell himself as a guy with good ideas well thought through. He seemed more focused on not putting his foot into it, and he did that reasonably well, but it was a missed opportunity. If I were Oz, I would have ignored Fettermen, and steered the moderators often silly and tendentious questions, to what he outlining what he wanted to do for PA to make the lives of ordinary citizens better. What's behind the facade of the TV doc? Why is he running for this job? What makes him passionate about it? I still don't really know after watching the debate.

[Torie]

Well, here we go. More than the debate itself, this is the kind of article you don't want after the fact, that uses it as a predicate for a discussion of lack of transparency, and handwringing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/fetterman-debate-performance-democrats-edge-pa-senate-race-rcna54158

A theme is kind of emerging. The Pubs nominate lousy candidates, and then the Dems don't do all that well in the debates. Perhaps it kind of balances out.

[Torie]

Well, here we go. More than the debate itself, this is the kind of article you don't want after the fact, that uses it as a predicate for a discussion of lack of transparency, and handwringing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/fetterman-debate-performance-democrats-edge-pa-senate-race-rcna54158

A theme is kind of emerging. The Pubs nominate lousy candidates, and then the Dems don't do all that well in the debates. Perhaps it kind of balances out.

Some are blowing this whole debate thing way out of proportion. It’s probably not going to make much of a difference.

No need to spend much energy speculating. The next batch of polls will be out soon.