Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Oryxslayer]

Liberals seem to want to tie Poilievre to Trump and wondering if others think it will work or not.  I tend to think it actually might.  I don't think you will see a massive swing, but might help push NDP down and maybe lead to a few Red Tories/fatigued Liberals crossing over but I doubt it will erase a 15 point deficit.  At most maybe a 5 point swing.  Main thing though is a lot depends how they play it as people don't have to believe it per se, just must find it plausible for it to work.  But if seems too over the top and people don't even find it plausible it won't work.

If they want to actually tie him to Trump, then they better be prepared gamble on the November (snap) election like Sunak seems to want in the UK.

[mileslunn]

Liberals seem to want to tie Poilievre to Trump and wondering if others think it will work or not.  I tend to think it actually might.  I don't think you will see a massive swing, but might help push NDP down and maybe lead to a few Red Tories/fatigued Liberals crossing over but I doubt it will erase a 15 point deficit.  At most maybe a 5 point swing.  Main thing though is a lot depends how they play it as people don't have to believe it per se, just must find it plausible for it to work.  But if seems too over the top and people don't even find it plausible it won't work.

If they want to actually tie him to Trump, then they better be prepared gamble on the November (snap) election like Sunak seems to want in the UK.

Agreed although if Trump wins then might even be more effective as many assume he will be like first term while every reason to believe he will be worse as the more qualified types who restrained his worse impulses won't be part of cabinet.  Off course if Biden wins, then yeah Trump becomes irrelevant by 2025.  And as for US election way too early to say.  I would give Trump slight edge, but its like maybe 55% chance of a Trump win, 45% chance of a Biden win.

[Flyersfan232]

Liberals seem to want to tie Poilievre to Trump and wondering if others think it will work or not.  I tend to think it actually might.  I don't think you will see a massive swing, but might help push NDP down and maybe lead to a few Red Tories/fatigued Liberals crossing over but I doubt it will erase a 15 point deficit.  At most maybe a 5 point swing.  Main thing though is a lot depends how they play it as people don't have to believe it per se, just must find it plausible for it to work.  But if seems too over the top and people don't even find it plausible it won't work.

If they want to actually tie him to Trump, then they better be prepared gamble on the November (snap) election like Sunak seems to want in the UK.

Agreed although if Trump wins then might even be more effective as many assume he will be like first term while every reason to believe he will be worse as the more qualified types who restrained his worse impulses won't be part of cabinet.  Off course if Biden wins, then yeah Trump becomes irrelevant by 2025.  And as for US election way too early to say.  I would give Trump slight edge, but its like maybe 55% chance of a Trump win, 45% chance of a Biden win.

of course if trump dont win this will backfired massive

[mileslunn]

Liberals seem to want to tie Poilievre to Trump and wondering if others think it will work or not.  I tend to think it actually might.  I don't think you will see a massive swing, but might help push NDP down and maybe lead to a few Red Tories/fatigued Liberals crossing over but I doubt it will erase a 15 point deficit.  At most maybe a 5 point swing.  Main thing though is a lot depends how they play it as people don't have to believe it per se, just must find it plausible for it to work.  But if seems too over the top and people don't even find it plausible it won't work.

If they want to actually tie him to Trump, then they better be prepared gamble on the November (snap) election like Sunak seems to want in the UK.

Agreed although if Trump wins then might even be more effective as many assume he will be like first term while every reason to believe he will be worse as the more qualified types who restrained his worse impulses won't be part of cabinet.  Off course if Biden wins, then yeah Trump becomes irrelevant by 2025.  And as for US election way too early to say.  I would give Trump slight edge, but its like maybe 55% chance of a Trump win, 45% chance of a Biden win.

of course if trump dont win this will backfired massive

Thus why I have a hunch they will go in Fall 2024 instead of Fall 2025 so they can use Trump either way since he will be in front page news whereas wait until 2025 risk it won't work if he loses.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I don't mind this guy.

Pierre Poilievre

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2s3d18Nvdq/

I like the way he rips dumb journalists to shreds.

[CumbrianLefty]

No reason for this not to be in the wider Canada thread, mods please merge

[SnowLabrador]

Not a bad strategy - that's why I've been saying all along that the Liberals will win.

[mileslunn]

Not a bad strategy - that's why I've been saying all along that the Liberals will win.

I am not as bold as that, but I do think their chances are much better than most say and I am one who believes polls will tighten.  I actually could see a repeat of what happened in Spain this summer where Tories win plurality, say 140 seats, but Trudeau gets support of not just NDP, but also BQ much like Sanchez got Catalan separatists on board and signs and supply and confidence for party to stay in power until 2029.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Not a bad strategy - that's why I've been saying all along that the Liberals will win.

I am not as bold as that, but I do think their chances are much better than most say and I am one who believes polls will tighten.  I actually could see a repeat of what happened in Spain this summer where Tories win plurality, say 140 seats, but Trudeau gets support of not just NDP, but also BQ much like Sanchez got Catalan separatists on board and signs and supply and confidence for party to stay in power until 2029.

I know things aren't the same as 2008, but I really don't think a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition is in the cards, even it's to keep an incumbent government going. The Liberals would be better off hoping Poilievre blows his econimic agenda a la Joe Clark and sends everyone back to the polls within the year - bonus points if Trudeau resigns then un-resigns too.

[mileslunn]

With Liberals trying to compare Poilievre to Trump, one poll by Abacus showed approximately 1 in 6 Liberal and 1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US.  Who the heck would these be?  I can see why maybe some who voted for two parties in past would support Trump, but cannot understand why anyone who still votes for them would prefer Trump over Biden.  I mean a Conservative voter wanting Biden to win that I can see.  Heck even a PPC voter favouring Biden seems more plausible (albeit unlikely) than a Liberal or NDP who favours Trump.

[OSR stands with Israel]

With Liberals trying to compare Poilievre to Trump, one poll by Abacus showed approximately 1 in 6 Liberal and 1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US.  Who the heck would these be?  I can see why maybe some who voted for two parties in past would support Trump, but cannot understand why anyone who still votes for them would prefer Trump over Biden.  I mean a Conservative voter wanting Biden to win that I can see.  Heck even a PPC voter favouring Biden seems more plausible (albeit unlikely) than a Liberal or NDP who favours Trump.

I mean many WWC voters in Canada still vote Lib or NDP so my guess is those types of voters.

[mileslunn]

With Liberals trying to compare Poilievre to Trump, one poll by Abacus showed approximately 1 in 6 Liberal and 1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US.  Who the heck would these be?  I can see why maybe some who voted for two parties in past would support Trump, but cannot understand why anyone who still votes for them would prefer Trump over Biden.  I mean a Conservative voter wanting Biden to win that I can see.  Heck even a PPC voter favouring Biden seems more plausible (albeit unlikely) than a Liberal or NDP who favours Trump.

I mean many WWC voters in Canada still vote Lib or NDP so my guess is those types of voters.

Some but they are trending Conservative as places like Brantford-Brant, Essex, Kenora, Kootenay-Columbia all examples of white working class that have turned blue.  Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, Saguenay, Niagara Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Windsor-Tecumseh, Northern Ontario, Skeena-Bulkley Valley and North Island-Powell River didn't go Conservative last election but were closer than normal and are trending rightward and if polls stay where are likely due flip next election. 

I can get how someone who voted Liberals in 90s supports Trump as party did have some fairly right wing MPs then unlike now while for NDP I could see someone who voted for Ed Broadbent or Jack Layton might since despite differences but appealed to white working class, but Singh I doubt does nearly as much and Trudeau much like Democrats very much appeals to urban/suburban educated class.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/TrueNorthCentre/status/1753499718854807758

It seems like progressives these days seem to throw out this word at random from this to calling what Abbott did Treasonous as well. Shows how extremely authoritarian they have gotten and also its extremely rich for him to throw this out given he as late as 2017 was unable to condemn the architect of the worst terrorist attack in Canadian History

https://torontosun.com/2017/10/03/jagmeet-singh-fails-his-first-test-of-leadership

Also this does show you how desperate the Trudeau-Singh government have gotten that they basically are just launching desperate attack after desperate attack at Pierre Poilievre in hopes of turning around polling and so far none of it has landed. I have even seen some liberals bring up the conspiracy that Modi , Orban and Trump are tied to Stephen Harper cause of muh IDU.

[Estrella]

This is an OSR threaf.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Pierre Poilievre didn't side with India on the matter, he said that Trudeau needs to present evidence the Indian gov't was tied to the killing (granted, evidence is hard to produce because Trudeau obtained the information from intel, but such a serious public accusation still generally needs evidence).

Why is the NDP siding with the Hamas when Hamas has killed Canadian citizens and taken them hostage? Maybe Jagmeet Singh is the 'treasonous' one.

The NDP's leader (then called the CCF) literally opposed going to war with Nazi Germany in September 1939. They as a party have no moral right to lecture anyone on treason.

[CumbrianLefty]

Their leader in 1939 was a pacifist.

He had a massive stroke the next year, after which the CCF mostly strongly supported the war effort.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Their leader in 1939 was a pacifist.

He had a massive stroke the next year, after which the CCF mostly strongly supported the war effort.

I'm aware. The NDP still generally has no moral right to lecture anyone on treason. They have taken positions much more detrimental to Canada's geopolitical interests and security than CPC and Poilievre re:India.

[Hatman 🍁]

1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US. 

Who are these people? I know one, personally - my step grandmother in law. She's a Serbian immigrant. Thinks the NDP are the party of the working people, but likes Trumps anti-war stance. I get the impression this is not an uncommon view among Eastern Europeans.

[Upper Canada Tory]

1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US.  

Who are these people? I know one, personally - my step grandmother in law. She's a Serbian immigrant. Thinks the NDP are the party of the working people, but likes Trumps anti-war stance. I get the impression this is not an uncommon view among Eastern Europeans.

Yea. A lot of Canadians have relatively random political preferences - people are not as strongly partisan as in the US. People might agree with Conservatives on social issues but NDP on economics/fp, and so on.

This dynamic also exists in the US, but I feel like people with this type of political persuasion in the US tend to cling more to one party than Canadians do.

So someone with those kind of views might gravitate more to Trump and the GOP in the US while 'shopping around' with different parties in Canada.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

My grandma was dumb. Hardcore NDP loyalist who came up as a Conservative when taking every possible political spectrum quiz. You could get her to take any position you wanted depending on how you worded the question.

[King of Kensington]

With Liberals trying to compare Poilievre to Trump, one poll by Abacus showed approximately 1 in 6 Liberal and 1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US.  Who the heck would these be?  I can see why maybe some who voted for two parties in past would support Trump, but cannot understand why anyone who still votes for them would prefer Trump over Biden.  I mean a Conservative voter wanting Biden to win that I can see.  Heck even a PPC voter favouring Biden seems more plausible (albeit unlikely) than a Liberal or NDP who favours Trump.

Low-information voters and/or contrarians. 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

My grandma was dumb. Hardcore NDP loyalist who came up as a Conservative when taking every possible political spectrum quiz. You could get her to take any position you wanted depending on how you worded the question.

You hating your own grandmother is a very expected part of your character arch.

[Storr]

"I hadn't realized until recently that Canada has abandoned its old selective high-skill immigration policy.

In 2023 Canada's population grew by over 1.2 million.
(By comparison, the US population grew by about 1.7 million in 2023, according to one estimate I've seen.)

As a result, the inflation rate for shelter has been running at 5-8% per year.

People on low income are usually renters, and they are paying the price.

PS it's easiest to look at overall population growth because there are so many bureaucratic categories of "immigration" (students visas used as a hack to become permanent, asylum claims, etc., etc.).

Numbers of births and deaths are similar [360k births vs. 332k deaths] so there is no natural increase.

These charts are from a report by economists at a bank.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/etude-speciale/special-report_240115.pdf"

I'm reading the report now because I've always found demographics and immigration interesting. Their conclusion: "Canada is caught in a population trap that has historically been the preserve of emerging economies. We currently lack the infrastructure and capital stock in this country to adequately absorb current population growth and improve our standard of living. Our policymakers should set Canada's population goals against the constraint of our capital stock, which goes beyond the supply of housing, if we are to improve our productivity. At this point, we believe that our country's annual total population growth should not exceed 300,000 to 500,000 if we are to escape the population trap."



https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/1754357672290238690?s=20

[lfromnj]

Correct, it does seem like the liberals have finally noticed and limited the worst of the student visas to those fully fake colleges.

[Open Source Intelligence]

1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US.  

Who are these people? I know one, personally - my step grandmother in law. She's a Serbian immigrant. Thinks the NDP are the party of the working people, but likes Trumps anti-war stance. I get the impression this is not an uncommon view among Eastern Europeans.

I also think it's completely understated to not stated at all in modern political analysis that Trump is not really a conservative as a conservative was defined 20 to 30 years ago. I personally don't consider the Republican Party a conservative organization any longer even though it definitely has conservative elements inside it (no different than the Democratic Party until the 1980s).

It's not surprising to me that in a country whose political setup is not overwhelmingly binary you see seemingly strange coalitions being made of who supports who in a binary one, and it should give pause to people that think if the Liberals and NDP merge they would automatically win every election going forward.