Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Spectator]

Everyone is freaking out over high turnout relative to 2017 and 2020 when neither of those were competitive races and this clearly is.

false. This is a close race. Not a competitive race. The difference is that in a competitive race, the winner is in doubt. The winner is not in doubt in this race.

go on...

This race is Safe D and always was. Don't let McAuliffe's embarrassingly small win fool anyone into thinking it was ever winnable for Youngkin.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Everyone is freaking out over high turnout relative to 2017 and 2020 when neither of those were competitive races and this clearly is.

false. This is a close race. Not a competitive race. The difference is that in a competitive race, the winner is in doubt. The winner is not in doubt in this race.

Except it is.

[Non Swing Voter]

Everyone is freaking out over high turnout relative to 2017 and 2020 when neither of those were competitive races and this clearly is.

false. This is a close race. Not a competitive race. The difference is that in a competitive race, the winner is in doubt. The winner is not in doubt in this race.

go on...

This race is Safe D and always was. Don't let McAuliffe's embarrassingly small win fool anyone into thinking it was ever winnable for Youngkin.

Thank you.  Been saying this for days.  I figured you were going there but wanted to see you complete the thought.  

[Lief 🗽]

The coal mines don’t close until later in the day. Except those Buchanan numbers to surge as the coal miners take off their hard hats and replace them with MAGA hats.

[Non Swing Voter]

Everyone is freaking out over high turnout relative to 2017 and 2020 when neither of those were competitive races and this clearly is.

false. This is a close race. Not a competitive race. The difference is that in a competitive race, the winner is in doubt. The winner is not in doubt in this race.

Except it is.

It's really not though...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Apparently Richmond is currently at 85% of its 2017 turnout.

[President Johnson]

Each Tuesday after the first Monday in November I come to hate the fact the US six to nine hours behind Europe and not vise versa, so you can never watch election results live without staying up all night. If at least election day was a Saturday. I just stay up in presidential elections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The coal mines don’t close until later in the day. Except those Buchanan numbers to surge as the coal miners take off their hard hats and replace them with MAGA hats.

The memes don't get any better than this, folks.

[Non Swing Voter]

The coal mines don’t close until later in the day. Except those Buchanan numbers to surge as the coal miners take off their hard hats and replace them with MAGA hats.

Best post in this 150 page thread

[Pollster]

One thing that is becoming clear at this point is that Youngkin is not getting the precipitous Democratic turnout collapse that he likely needs.

[Brittain33]

One thing that is becoming clear at this point is that Youngkin is not getting the precipitous Democratic turnout collapse that he likely needs.

My doomer premonition is Youngkin doing unexpectedly well in NoVa like Miami-Dade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The coal mines don’t close until later in the day. Except those Buchanan numbers to surge as the coal miners take off their hard hats and replace them with MAGA hats.

Best post in this 150 page thread

I unrecommended it so that I could recommend it twice.

[Pollster]

One thing that is becoming clear at this point is that Youngkin is not getting the precipitous Democratic turnout collapse that he likely needs.

My doomer premonition is Youngkin doing unexpectedly well in NoVa like Miami-Dade.

Certainly a possibility - and something that likely now needs to happen for a Youngkin victory.

[Non Swing Voter]

One thing that is becoming clear at this point is that Youngkin is not getting the precipitous Democratic turnout collapse that he likely needs.

My doomer premonition is Youngkin doing unexpectedly well in NoVa like Miami-Dade.

Certainly a possibility - and something that likely now needs to happen for a Youngkin victory.

Chuck Todd said he thinks Youngkin needs to win 15% of Biden voters to have a shot.  I just don't see that happening.  I could see mayyyybe 7 or 8%.

[roxas11]

I think biggest surprise to me of the year is that Biden really is not having the negative impact on Dem turnout that media said he would

Unlike Obama Biden simply does not even seem to be a factor when it comes to Dem's turnring out to vote

At first when it happened in California I just thought it was a fluke because, of course the Dems were going to come out and vote against someone like Larry elders, but the fact the they are once again coming out to vote in Virginia now makes is clear to me that Joe Biden is not killing Dem enthusiasm for voting at all. If this continues than the 2022 midterms may end up playing out a lot differently than what I originally thought.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1455622291090509831

[Spectator]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think biggest surprise to me of the year is that Biden really is not having the negative impact on Dem turnout that media said he would

Unlike Obama Biden simply does not even seem to be a factor when it comes to Dem's turnring out to vote

At first when it happened in California I just thought it was a fluke because, of course the Dems were going to come out and vote against someone like Larry elders, but the fact the they are once again coming out to vote in Virginia now makes is clear to me that Joe Biden is not killing Dem enthusiasm for voting at all. If this continues than the 2022 midterms may end up playing out a lot differently than what I originally thought.

sign of the times realignment

[Non Swing Voter]

If my math is correct, Fairfax just hit 380,000 votes, which means it has surpassed its total 2017 vote.

If this starts inching close to 500,000... I won't say it.

[LimoLiberal]

One thing that is becoming clear at this point is that Youngkin is not getting the precipitous Democratic turnout collapse that he likely needs.

My doomer premonition is Youngkin doing unexpectedly well in NoVa like Miami-Dade.

This is my premonition too but it's also exactly how many, many of us felt before 2017. Ed Gillespie had won Loudoun in 2014 and seemed perfect to regain ground in NoVA. And then the returns came in, and I'll never forget this Nate Cohn tweet.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/928059816743964672

Sometimes our premonitions are right. Sometimes a vocal class of center-right Northern Virginia politicos and lobbyists drive a narrative (MS-13, CRT?) that doesn't actually materialize. We'll see in a couple hours.

[Buzz]

Biden just told audience in Scotland that he thinks T-Mac will win.

what exactly do you expect him to say lmao

[Dereich]

Its thread like this, in which poster after poster falls all over themselves to validate Griff's Patented Election Day Hysteria Generator which assure me that nothing ever changes and all is well.

[LabourJersey]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden just told audience in Scotland that he thinks T-Mac will win.

what exactly do you expect him to say lmao

To not raise expectations when he's not directly asked???  

[Spectator]

It is obnoxious how much disproportionate attention Virginia gets, much like Iowa and the caucuses, despite really not even being interesting politically.

Proximity to the DC media + off year elections + competitive races do wonders for coverage.

If NJ was still a swing states like in the 80s/90s it would receive a ton of attention too

It's not.