PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[TeePee4Prez]

My Eddie is going NOWHERE!  He will be serving the state of Pennsylvania until 2010 and at that him either Chris Heinz or him will be replacing Sen. Specter.

[TeePee4Prez]

danwxman, I agree.  How is some washed up Steelers WR giving Rendell a challenge?  I mean is that the best the GOP can do? 

We may have to pound the pavement on Santorum as well.  How is this jackass getting these good poll numbers?

[TeePee4Prez]

Why doesnt Toomey make a run for governor?  Right now hes just collection dust on the sidelines.

Like Jake said, he's running the Club for Growth and he'll probably run for Senate in 2010.

I hope he collects enough dust by then to not even be a factor.  SCHWARTZ 4 SENATE IN 2010!!!!

[TeePee4Prez]

Castor considers run for Governor.

http://www.kywnewsradio.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45290


Rendell, Piccola, Scranton, Swann....everyone considering a run for Gov. in 2006 are afraid now...

I want PA Dems to see this and see if they insist that their Eddie is still safe for re-election.

Yes he is.  Remember Ed Rendell has WAY more star power than Bruce Castor.

[TeePee4Prez]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

Castor will cut into Rendell's Montco margin from Rendell +36 to say anywhere between Rendell +22 to +28.  Bruce Castor is a popular DA, but DA's are surely treated differently when running for an executive or legilsative office.  Rendell has star power.  Castor can only cut into him ever so slightly.  As bullmoose even said, western PA turnout has to be incredible with Swann on the ticket and even then Rendell will grill him on experience.

[TeePee4Prez]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

Castor will cut into Rendell's Montco margin from Rendell +36 to say anywhere between Rendell +22 to +28.  Bruce Castor is a popular DA, but DA's are surely treated differently when running for an executive or legilsative office.  Rendell has star power. 

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How mature.

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Rendell Republicans went for Kerry and will surely go for their man again- Ed Rendell. 

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[TeePee4Prez]

How am I a hack?  I am a little nervous about Rendell, but not that much.  A lot can happen between now and 2006.  Why the hate for him?  It really beats me! 

[TeePee4Prez]

Make sure you look at this analysis of why Rendell will be defeated in 2006. Now I know it's written by a Young Republican leader but there are some poll numbers included and other issues that clearly hurt Rendell.
 
http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/gsterns.htm

In the interest of being fair and balanced, which you are clearly not, here is the other article: http://www.politicspa.com/FEATURES/gettel.htm

I'm clearly not fair and balanced because I didn't go searching for a Pro Rendell article? Good one. What do you have to say about Terry Maddona's comments that Rendell will have a tough challenge in 2006? I know you loved to quote him in the past.

They were companion articles on PoliticsPA.com. And usually you post every article about 2006 on here, but you skipped that one. I wonder why.

Also, I would like to see an actual quote from Terry Madonna. His column on PoliticsPA (http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/uncorrected.htm) says the GOP "thinks" they have a chance.

Phil actually think Rendell is going to be beat.  He would love it if Pat Toomey were Resuurected from the Dead to chalenge Ed Rendell.  He actually thinks Toomey would win I bet.

[TeePee4Prez]

Nice to see Rendell getting dragged around over Act 72. 

I wouldn't be too thrilled; Casey proposed a comprehesive tax reform program, to approved with a constitutional amendment.  In the Spring of 1989, it was defeated two to one.  In the Fall of 1990, Casey was relected by a margin of two to one.

It's definitely temporary. I expect Rendell's numbers to jump back up by the next poll or two.

Actually his approval/re-elect numbers have been weak for awhile.

Keep having wet dreams about a Rendell tanking.  As even J.J eluded to, Rendell will bounce back.  He is just having some kinks with Act 72, which he will get over.  None of the options against him could do any damage.  Rendell is too popular in the Southeast for even Bruce Castor to overcome.  It seems your best chance is Lynn Swann, and I feel at this point his numbers are maxed out and he will energize the ENTIRE Southeast to vote against him to overcome Swann's gains in the Southwest.   The Central part of PA will not vote for an African American and you know what I said about everythign else. 

[TeePee4Prez]

First, I was alluding to Rendell failure with Act 72; that was Jake's post.  It's too far out to be a real factor in 2006.

Second, Castor as Lt. Gov. could be a very big held to a GOP nominee.  It would drain votes from Rendell.

Another problem is Baker Knoll.  She's a disaster (even according to the Democrats), but she repesents the conservative wing of PA Democratic party.  She's also from Pittsburgh.  Dumping her repudiates that wing; keeping her reminds everyone that she keeps referring to the Gov. as "Edward G. Robinson."  That is one of the ticking time bombs in the Rendell campaign.

I would consider dumping Baker Knoll.  I've heard things from people who've worked for her.  She is a VERY conservative Democrat and has the worst personality. 

[TeePee4Prez]

What makes Castor qualified to be Governor?

He's been a powerful Montgomery county DA for the past five years.

So what?

I guess you would say the same thing to a certain Democrat in 1986 when he ran for Governor and his only experience was being a DA. His name is Ed Rendell.

Apparently, Ed Rendell's love for the Eagles and a good cheesesteak is good enough for some boneheads in this area.

1.) Apparently Ed Rendell was elected MAYOR in between 1991 and 1999.  That little thing happened before he was governor just so you know.

2.)  Apparently, Melissa Brown's baseless rants against Section 8 were good enough for some bonheads in NE Philly to vote for her.

[TeePee4Prez]

1.) Apparently Ed Rendell was elected MAYOR in between 1991 and 1999.  That little thing happened before he was governor just so you know.

2.)  Apparently, Melissa Brown's baseless rants against Section 8 were good enough for some bonheads in NE Philly to vote for her.

1) We're talking about the 1986 race he ran in, Flyers. Pay attention.

2) Basless? Hardly! And she actually had her facts straight (something you guys should try).

1.  Touche!  Executive or legislative experience does help.

2.  I'll have a migraine if we discss this now.

[TeePee4Prez]

Another great Swann quote. When asked the number one reason why Rendell shouldn't be re-elected...Swann said because "under Rendell Pennsylvania has lost jobs"

This as news broke that Pennsylvania gained jobs and the unemployment rate dropped again. Under Rendell, Pennsylvania has actually gained jobs.

BTW, when Swann was campaigning for President Bush he touted that Bush had created jobs in Pennsylvania.

This guy is just a goof. Please nominate him!

Ditto!

[TeePee4Prez]

Expect a Quinnipiac poll for this race tomorrow or sometime very soon. In April, Quinnipiac released their Senate poll on the 21st and their Governor poll on the 22nd. Stay tuned.

Castor will not be beating Rendell!  I repeat Castor won't beat Rendell!  Swann won't beat Rendell!  I repeat Swann will not beat Rendell!

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm thinking Hoeffel for Lt. Governor.  Then again I wouldn't want an all Southeast ticket either so in that case I'd like to see Baker-Knoll axed in favor of Dan Onorato.

[TeePee4Prez]

Upon hearing from a family friend, Bruce Castor is not running for Governor next year. My family friend who is related to an elected official from Montco informed me of this news just yesterday. As many may already know, Castor is now looking into a run in PA 13.

I'll admit he's more deadly to us running for governor.  Please run him in PA 13.  Schwartz will beat him!

[TeePee4Prez]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

Ever think of this concept- RENDELL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET!  And no Castor except for the PA 13- HMMM?? 

[TeePee4Prez]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

Ever think of this concept- RENDELL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET!  And no Castor except for the PA 13- HMMM?? 

Rendell at the top of the ticket? Ok? Last year was a Presidential election which means much higher turnout. Eddie isn't going to have a high turnout or even the same turnout as 2004. Hate to break that to you.

And the Republican nominee will?

[TeePee4Prez]

Come on Eddie! Keep it up!  Yourrre slacking here.  A washed up ex-Steeler is gaining.  Better wake up!

[TeePee4Prez]

Putting both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on the front page of his website is a nice touch.

Everyone does that but he doesn't have to. I honestly believe he can say "Screw the east" and win. The west is pretty angry with Edddie.

If He does that, I'm voting/will actively support Ed Rendell (as opposed to doing the same for Mike Fisher in '02).

Screw the West. Up with the Southeast.

Rendell makes us look bad. The guy goes out of his way to be more of a sports commentator than a Governor and people out west, as well as everyone else, should be mad that people in this area of the state just accept that.

Up with all of Pennsylvania.

And so we should just accept some inexperienced clown who is a Hall of Fame WR and used to be on ABC?  Come on Phil, you are a partisan hack if I ever saw one!

[TeePee4Prez]

WTF?? Is that the best you can do? Attack the governor for being an Eagles fan, and then call everyone who disagrees with you stupid?

And you still didn't answer my question.

He's more than a fan, clown. He spends hours analyzing Eagles games! You don't think the GOP will have fun with that during the campaign?

And your question about Jesus vs. Bob Taft is so ridiculous that it's not getting a response.

Swann also spent hours analyzing games. Will we use that against him?

And why wouldn't you vote for Jesus? I thought you were a Christian?

If Swann was Governor and he did that, I'd support the Dems in using that against him.

What did Rendell do that was non-gubernatorial with regards to Comcast?  He did it off duty!  And yes you would support Swann if he did that- no lie.

[TeePee4Prez]

Rendell 53%
Swann 33%

how did that happen?

A Casey - Swan Senate delegation would be nice  

No it wouldn't.  I want a Casey-Schwartz delegation in 2011.

[TeePee4Prez]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

[TeePee4Prez]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

I think Gerlach is much more vulnerable than Fitz.  Even though Schrader was a weak candidate, Fitz still got about the same percentage of votes as Schwartz, and I don't think Schwartz is going anywhere, espeically now that both of them will have some seniority under their belts come 2006.  Warren might be able to appeal to some Republicans and I think he might be th ebest chance to beat Fitz

That being said the Democrats have a better chance at PA 8 than the GOP does with PA 13 even with Castor.

[TeePee4Prez]

I pray Scranton is the GOP nominee, that way his "cult" status is brought to the state's attention.

That's exactly why the man won't be the nominee. I fear he still has some influence over some of the older state committee members but it's going to come down to a conservative values fight. Scranton can't win there. I don't really buy that he is in the lead for the nomination at this point either. Sure he just announced and has been criss-crossing the state. He's a visible candidate but Swann probably still has a slight edge. Wait until his official announcement.

I don't know.  From what I've been hearing, I think Scranton could do the most damage in Southeastern PA.  Usually, the Heinz-Specter wing of the Republican party is usually unstoppable in PA politics.  Swann will be called out fast.  He is a nothing candidate with a star name.  People are sick of Schwarzenegger and Swann very much fits that mold.