PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[danwxman]

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Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

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Really?

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

You're such an idiot.

I haven't made any comments on what I think about Castor...all I know is that even bullmoose disputes your claim.

You were saying that I'm the only one that believed he was a strong candidate and made that seem foolish. Also, if you can't admit here and now that Castor is a strong candidate, than you're a partisan hack. No doubt about it.

I trust bullmoose on this one, sorry Keystone Hack.

[Keystone Phil]

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Oh so no incumbent Governor has been defeated therefore Rendell cannot lose? That's good reasoning, dan.

Facts: Rendell keeps slipping in approval ratings. Rendell's negatives are high. You have a hard time with those.

[Keystone Phil]

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Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

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Really?

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

You're such an idiot.

I haven't made any comments on what I think about Castor...all I know is that even bullmoose disputes your claim.

You were saying that I'm the only one that believed he was a strong candidate and made that seem foolish. Also, if you can't admit here and now that Castor is a strong candidate, than you're a partisan hack. No doubt about it.

I trust bullmoose on this one, sorry Keystone Hack.

Oh so you don't have an opinion. Is it because you don't know what you're talking about? I think so.

[danwxman]

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Oh so no incumbent Governor has been defeated therefore Rendell cannot lose? That's good reasoning, dan.

Facts: Rendell keeps slipping in approval ratings. Rendell's negatives are high. You have a hard time with those.

I've said it before I'll say it again...Rendell and Santorum are in nearly the same boat. The difference? Rendell has no strong challenger.

[Keystone Phil]

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Oh so no incumbent Governor has been defeated therefore Rendell cannot lose? That's good reasoning, dan.

Facts: Rendell keeps slipping in approval ratings. Rendell's negatives are high. You have a hard time with those.

I've said it before I'll say it again...Rendell and Santorum are in nearly the same boat. The difference? Rendell has no strong challenger.

Castor would be a strong challeneger (if he runs)! Accept it!

[danwxman]

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Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Really?

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

You're such an idiot.

I haven't made any comments on what I think about Castor...all I know is that even bullmoose disputes your claim.

You were saying that I'm the only one that believed he was a strong candidate and made that seem foolish. Also, if you can't admit here and now that Castor is a strong candidate, than you're a partisan hack. No doubt about it.

I trust bullmoose on this one, sorry Keystone Hack.

Oh so you don't have an opinion. Is it because you don't know what you're talking about? I think so.

My opinion is that bullmoose is a helluva lot smarter then you. He's also not a partisan hack.

[Keystone Phil]

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Good argument (when you don't have one of your own to use).

[bullmoose88]

Castor considers run for Governor.

http://www.kywnewsradio.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45290


Rendell, Piccola, Scranton, Swann....everyone considering a run for Gov. in 2006 are afraid now...

I want PA Dems to see this and see if they insist that their Eddie is still safe for re-election.

Yes he is.  Remember Ed Rendell has WAY more star power than Bruce Castor.

You're crazy. Castor will cut into Rendell's base big time and the west can't stand Rendell to begin with.

Phil,

You dream. No offense dude.

Rendell's still going to run on his record as mayor...and he'll win big in the SE.

This state likes to have two term governors.

I dream? You're doubting Castor's popularity, dude? Do you realize his re-election results, dude? Do you realize that the west went for Rendell in 2002 but he's disliked out there, dude?

How can you say that Castor wouldn't cut into Rendell's base here? Rendell won Montco by about 36%. He wouldn't even get close to winning by that much if he had to run against Castor. That's not a dream. Now if I said Swann would cut into the base big time, then you could say I'm dreaming but you obviously don't understand the issue here.

 Flyers is this ultimate partisan hack who admires Rendell to no end. Rendell does no wrong, in his eyes.. I'm surprised you decided to go along with his nonsense on this issue.

I don't think Rendell's been that great of a governor, I don't think he's been bad either...dude.

The problem is, the man is a cultural icon here. Sure he may not win by 36 points in Montco...but he'll win by enough in the SE to counteract any Republican gains out west. The SE has so many voters that the GOP would have to cream Rendell out west just to have a chance.

Rendell's still going to get the union endorsements (which is sad, because generally they just support anyone with a D after their name)...which means he'll keep it close in NE and SW PA.

Close enough where it won't matter.

The state party would be better served to spend the money on Santorum.

[Keystone Phil]

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When I follow politics and see Rendell more on Comcast SportsNet, then we know there is a problem.

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Not with Castor on the ballot. If he can't win the SE by the numbers he did in 2002, he's not very likely to win. Castor makes Montco very close and Bucks, Chester, Berks are all in play.

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It won't help him enough in areas out west. Maybe the NE area but not the west.

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I hate to say this but there might come a point where the state party has to focus on other areas. Say it's August of 2006 and Santorum is still down to Casey by 10-15 points. The state party is going to realize a Santorum win will is unlikely and shift the focus elsewhere. If Castor is our nominee, the money and focus will go to him.

Also, if the next poll to come out shows Santorum down the by 14 or so points, listen for the talk about retirement.

[Keystone Phil]

Word is that Castor met with GOP lawmakers and wants to see some poll numbers before he jumps into the race.

http://www.kyw1060.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45894

[danwxman]

John Baer | Guv shouldn't worry about GOP triple play

THREE Republicans lining up to challenge Ed Rendell for governor next year are starting to make joint appearances. It seems a good time to offer early assessments.

This week, the three were together, speaking one after the other, at a GOP county dinner in York and the annual Pennsylvanians for Effective Government dinner outside Harrisburg.

Let's just say no one at this point will mistake them for The Magi.

The gifts they bring are meager: broad criticisms, few specifics and a general call for change. They do this showing little apparent differences and with deliveries, though practiced, less than sparkling.

I saw no audience member on his or her feet or, for that matter, mildly enthusiastic.

Candidates spoke in alphabetical order, so let's take them that way.

Jeff Piccola, 56, of Dauphin County, offers the most substantive remarks so naturally has the least chance.

He's a state senator with 28 years' legislative service, a lawyer and a member of Senate leadership.

His theme is, "lack of leadership." He says Democrat Rendell's only answers to state problems are to "raise taxes, raise fees, borrow money or gamble." He mocks Rendell's "New Pennsylvania," saying, "We don't need a 'New Pennsylvania,' we need a new governor."

Piccola's got some problems (other than too often repeating the word "Commonwealth"): He voted for Rendell's tax increase, he's a tad squishy on abortion, and nobody's ever heard of him.

Bill Scranton, 57, of Lackawanna County and the city that bears his family name, is a former lieutenant governor and GOP guv candidate, who lost to Bob Casey Sr. in 1986.

He jokes that he's running again because, "I miss living near Three Mile Island."

(I worked for Scranton during the '86 race and learned a lot; we are cordial but rarely speak.)

His theme is meeting the challenges of "the information economy." He jabs Rendell for aid to Comcast and joins in trashing gambling, calling it "as good a solution to Pennsylvania's problems as it is to a homemaker's budget."

Scranton has some problems (other than saying "ladies and gentlemen" too often): He sorta vanished after '86, and his theme sounds a lot like his theme two decades ago.

Lynn Swann, 53, the football Hall-of-Famer and ABC-TV sportscaster of Allegheny County, has never run for public office - and it shows.

While he has star power, can work a room and is an able speaker, he's the least specific of the three. He says the state needs change, and "I think I can be that agent of change."

A curiosity at this stage (dinners where he speaks sell out), Swann actually says, "It's not important that I have ideas."

Well, maybe not as a wide receiver in a huddle, but it helps as a candidate for governor.

Swann has some problems (other than too often saying "you know"): He's a novice in a tough game; and it isn't clear how far celebrity carries him.

National Republican Committeeman Bob Asher assures me, "There will be no primary," meaning whoever the party endorses in February is the nominee. He says all three candidates gave him that commitment.

A recent statewide Quinnipiac University poll shows Swann ahead among GOP voters (Swann, 25; Scranton 21; Piccola 6) but says 47 percent of Republicans are undecided.

My instinct is the staid old party opts for the familiar (and potentially self-financing) Scranton rather than playing celebrity roulette, though that would be more fun. Piccola, as mentioned, is just too experienced.

My friend and colleague Brad Bumsted of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggests a morphing of the three - Swann's draw, Scranton's money, Piccola's know-how - to form a perfect candidate.

I like that plan. It's not clear any one of these guys gives Eddie much of a run. *

Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com
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I watched Swann's speech on PCN yesterday and let me just say....he obviously lacks substance and has no plan whatsoever. Look at this quote! My jaw dropped when he said this: "It's not important that I have ideas." Basically the whole theme of his speech was I don't have much of a plan or any unique ideas but I agree with Piccola and Scranton on the facts. Yea, and Rendell sucks.

Swann is an empty shell and just a name. I mean sure, Casey is just a name...but at least there's some substance behind it. Rendell would absolutely destroy Swann in any debate. Piccola looks really weak at this point...he's very boring and after all he voted for all of Rendell's "tax increases"

Scranton looks like the only guy with a chance at taking out Rendell, and an outside chance at that.

[Keystone Phil]

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I watched Swann's speech on PCN yesterday and let me just say....he obviously lacks substance and has no plan whatsoever. Look at this quote! My jaw dropped when he said this: "It's not important that I have ideas." Basically the whole theme of his speech was I don't have much of a plan or any unique ideas but I agree with Piccola and Scranton on the facts. Yea, and Rendell sucks.

Swann is an empty shell and just a name. I mean sure, Casey is just a name...but at least there's some substance behind it. Rendell would absolutely destroy Swann in any debate. Piccola looks really weak at this point...he's very boring and after all he voted for all of Rendell's "tax increases"

Scranton looks like the only guy with a chance at taking out Rendell, and an outside chance at that.

Piccola is a joke and won't get the nomination. It's as simple as that. If Castor doesn't get in, it's between Scranton and Swann. Out of the two, I'd say Swann has a better shot at beating Rendell.

Also, posting an article from a writer who has demonstrated his bias in the past means nothing to me.

[danwxman]

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I watched Swann's speech on PCN yesterday and let me just say....he obviously lacks substance and has no plan whatsoever. Look at this quote! My jaw dropped when he said this: "It's not important that I have ideas." Basically the whole theme of his speech was I don't have much of a plan or any unique ideas but I agree with Piccola and Scranton on the facts. Yea, and Rendell sucks.

Swann is an empty shell and just a name. I mean sure, Casey is just a name...but at least there's some substance behind it. Rendell would absolutely destroy Swann in any debate. Piccola looks really weak at this point...he's very boring and after all he voted for all of Rendell's "tax increases"

Scranton looks like the only guy with a chance at taking out Rendell, and an outside chance at that.

Piccola is a joke and won't get the nomination. It's as simple as that. If Castor doesn't get in, it's between Scranton and Swann. Out of the two, I'd say Swann has a better shot at beating Rendell.

Also, posting an article from a writer who has demonstrated his bias in the past means nothing to me.

Did you see his speech though? I think you might change your mind if you saw it. Just horrible...no substance at all...no plan....no ideas. I sure as hell wouldn't want somebody like that representing my party against somebody as experienced as Rendell.

[Keystone Phil]

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I watched Swann's speech on PCN yesterday and let me just say....he obviously lacks substance and has no plan whatsoever. Look at this quote! My jaw dropped when he said this: "It's not important that I have ideas." Basically the whole theme of his speech was I don't have much of a plan or any unique ideas but I agree with Piccola and Scranton on the facts. Yea, and Rendell sucks.

Swann is an empty shell and just a name. I mean sure, Casey is just a name...but at least there's some substance behind it. Rendell would absolutely destroy Swann in any debate. Piccola looks really weak at this point...he's very boring and after all he voted for all of Rendell's "tax increases"

Scranton looks like the only guy with a chance at taking out Rendell, and an outside chance at that.

Piccola is a joke and won't get the nomination. It's as simple as that. If Castor doesn't get in, it's between Scranton and Swann. Out of the two, I'd say Swann has a better shot at beating Rendell.

Also, posting an article from a writer who has demonstrated his bias in the past means nothing to me.

Did you see his speech though? I think you might change your mind if you saw it. Just horrible...no substance at all...no plan....no ideas. I sure as hell wouldn't want somebody like that representing my party against somebody as experienced as Rendell.

Well he better get a plan soon. Though I share his views on most issues, I don't want to see him turn into a joke because he doesn't have any ideas to put forth. Right now, I'm hoping Castor runs. If he doesn't, I'll be supporting Swann again. Hopefully by then he'll develop some sort of agenda.

[Keystone Phil]

I know danwxman loves to quote Pennsylvanians political pollsters when it comes to this race so I'm sure he'll love to hear what I heard this morning.

In the Philadelphia media market we have a program called Inside Story This morning they began discussing the Philadelphia corruption trial which led into a discussion about campaign contributions which then led into the point about the Santorum-Casey race. The commentators were stating how expensive this race will be and so on and so forth. Well one of the Republican commentators (Greg Melinson) threw in the fact that we also have a Governor's race which will be expensive, too.

Now if I was danwxman or any other partisan Dem that loves Ed Rendell I would be thinking "Well look. He's a Republican. Of course he wants to make it seem like the Governor's race will be a big contest." Well wait just a minute.

Another one of the commentators followed up on the point. He said that in 2002, Rendell spent around $43 million to win the Governor's race. The commentator then when on to how Rendell will likely receive a strong challenge from a Republican next year which would mean another expensive statewide race here in PA.

Do you know who that commentator was?

It was Terry Maddona.

PA Dems, I think it's time you guys have to admit that Rendell is not the safe bet you thought he was. Terry Maddona isn't even on your side anymore.

[King]

I don't understand why all you Democrats say Rendell is in for a solid win.  Rendell only leads Swann by 6 percent (50-44) according to Survey USA (and that was taken when his approval rating was at 53%, it is now at 48%).

[Keystone Phil]

  Rendell only leads Swann by 6 percent (50-44) according to Survey USA

When was that released? Where is it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reason seems to be what they want to happen. Same goes for some of the analysis the PA Republicans here come out with.
Both sides are pretty bad for that actually.

[Keystone Phil]

Reason seems to be what they want to happen. Same goes for some of the analysis the PA Republicans here come out with.
Both sides are pretty bad for that actually.

What's our analysis? I think every PA Republican here admits that it would be tough to beat Rendell. The Democrats here say it's pretty much impossible for him to lose.

[Jake]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's our analysis? I think every PA Republican here admits that it would be tough to beat Rendell. The Democrats here say it's pretty much impossible for him to lose.

Not over this. Much. Other things. Oh well. At least with both it tends only to be wild exaggerations...

[King]

  Rendell only leads Swann by 6 percent (50-44) according to Survey USA

When was that released? Where is it?

Survey USA, March 10th...

[TeePee4Prez]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

Castor will cut into Rendell's Montco margin from Rendell +36 to say anywhere between Rendell +22 to +28.  Bruce Castor is a popular DA, but DA's are surely treated differently when running for an executive or legilsative office.  Rendell has star power.  Castor can only cut into him ever so slightly.  As bullmoose even said, western PA turnout has to be incredible with Swann on the ticket and even then Rendell will grill him on experience.

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

Castor will cut into Rendell's Montco margin from Rendell +36 to say anywhere between Rendell +22 to +28.  Bruce Castor is a popular DA, but DA's are surely treated differently when running for an executive or legilsative office.  Rendell has star power. 

Sorry, Flyers, but you're such a hack. Castor gets +70% at the polls in DA races. He's the last unifying figure for the Montco GOP. They love him. And you say he'd only cut into Rendell's support by about eight points? Give me a break. You also refuse to take into account how Castor would do in places like Bucks and Chester. There are a high amount of Rendell Republicans in those counties but with someone like Castor on the ballot, they pretty much disappear.