PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

I think his numbers look rather solid.  If he runs a good campaign he should be alright.  None of his possible opponents are breaking 40%.

None of his opponents are breaking 40% because the campaign hasn't even begun!

Look at his re-elect numbers in general. 46% want him while 41% are opposed. High disapprovals. Lowest approval rating in over a year.

September - 52%
February - 51%
April - 49%
July - 47%

What's next? What will we see come September or October of this year? Remember that that will be the time when his opponents will really start campaigning. What happens if he drops to 45%? Then 43%? When will he not look solid? When will the Rendell supporters realize that he's dead in an area he look rather easily in 2002?

He's in trouble.

[Speed of Sound]

I think his numbers look rather solid.  If he runs a good campaign he should be alright.  None of his possible opponents are breaking 40%.

None of his opponents are breaking 40% because the campaign hasn't even begun!

Look at his re-elect numbers in general. 46% want him while 41% are opposed. High disapprovals. Lowest approval rating in over a year.

September - 52%
February - 51%
April - 49%
July - 47%

What's next? What will we see come September or October of this year? Remember that that will be the time when his opponents will really start campaigning. What happens if he drops to 45%? Then 43%? When will he not look solid? When will the Rendell supporters realize that he's dead in an area he look rather easily in 2002?

He's in trouble.

i agree. he has to really work his butt of if he wants to stay Governor.  if he keeps voters the way he is, it could end with a tragic landslide victory for his opponent

[Keystone Phil]

i agree. he has to really work his butt of if he wants to stay Governor.  if he keeps voters the way he is, it could end with a tragic landslide victory for his opponent

I'm not calling for a landslide but I'd be thrilled to see one. 

However, I do see this as possibly Georgia 2002 in the making. Rendell will probably be the favorite throughout the race or maybe it will go tossup but if he loses, it will catch many by surprise. If Democrats in this state keep acting like they have this thing won already, they have a very good chance of seeing a Rendell concession speech.

[Speed of Sound]

a Rendell concession speech.

[danwxman]

I don't think people in Pennsylvania care anymore. They just don't expect relief...ever. If the Republican nominee promises property tax relief, they are going to look like an idiot and nobody will take him seriously.

They don't care? Look at the poll. It's one of the top issues right now and people believe Rendell was the failure.

You really hurt yourself with this. The analysts and the Dems on this board (even some Republicans) went on and on about how strong Eddie is. The fact of the matter is that he is not. People don't like him. He'll have his cash but he's dead out west (no Lt. Gov. candidate can save him) and if the west is energized enough to remove him (I think they're realizing they fell for the superstar in 2002 but it really wasn't worth it at all), then the west can beat the east in this one.

As Jake said, the property tax issue and the failure of Act 72 will fade from voter's radar screens by the time the election comes around.

And if the Republican promises relief, it will be seen as a joke. How many times have Pennsylvanians been promised tax relief, without any results?

[Keystone Phil]

As Jake said, the property tax issue and the failure of Act 72 will fade from voter's radar screens by the time the election comes around.

And if the Republican promises relief, it will be seen as a joke. How many times have Pennsylvanians been promised tax relief, without any results?

Act 72 has been out of the picture (for the most part) for about a month and he's still going down.

Ed Rendell is the most overrated elected official in Pennsylvania.

[Jake]

As Jake said, the property tax issue and the failure of Act 72 will fade from voter's radar screens by the time the election comes around.

Um, no. I said now it would be enough to make him lose, by next year it won't hurt him as bad, but will still be seen as a big failure.

[Speed of Sound]

As Jake said, the property tax issue and the failure of Act 72 will fade from voter's radar screens by the time the election comes around.

And if the Republican promises relief, it will be seen as a joke. How many times have Pennsylvanians been promised tax relief, without any results?

Act 72 has been out of the picture (for the most part) for about a month and he's still going down.

Ed Rendell is the most overrated elected official in Pennsylvania.

i have to agree Phil.

[Speed of Sound]

I don't think people in Pennsylvania care anymore. They just don't expect relief...ever. If the Republican nominee promises property tax relief, they are going to look like an idiot and nobody will take him seriously.

the Dems on this board  went on and on about how strong Eddie is.

i just want to set myself apart of the crowd here. i kind of soent the whole time talking about how weak he was, although im not really a democrat, either

[AuH2O]

nick: ask and ye shall receive.

Personally, I think Rendell is a pretty formidable politician on a lot of levels. But there are enough problems in PA, including those of his doing, that he is somewhat vulnerable.

The race hinges on who wins the GOP primary to some extent, but I'm not sure who is really the best GOP option. I think there is good reason to think Castor is the best choice should he enter the race... there will be some synergy between the Senate and Governor's race, though the nature of that is difficult to predict (and I know of little research on the matter).

Swann has been taken out of context with some of his early remarks... I think the point was that he's not a politician but he is smart and has time to develop a platform. He's very raw right now but with lots of upside.

Right now, I think Rendell and Santorum will win narrowly. However, if Rendell loses that is big trouble for Casey, which is my primary interest in the race (I could kind of care less who PA elects as Governor; the Senate race is my main concern).

[Keystone Phil]

Not looking good with Castor. I received a reply to an email I sent last night and it looks unlikely that he'll run. I'll share with you two things from the email:

1) He points out the trouble Santorum is in. When I responded, I didn't even bother to point out that he might help Santorum in this area by being on the top of the ballot. This reason alone seems to be enough to end his thoughts of running. If a party is so concerned with one race, it's not worth it to run in another (basically his view).

2) Party leadership. They don't like him. It's that simple. He's the best candidate that we could put up but because he messed around in the '04 AG primary, they can't stomach him. He does, however, point out that things may change between now and Labor Day (I'm guessing that's when he'll make some sort of statement or if he's not running by then, it's over) but points out that someday pigs might fly.  He might run again if his chances get better. We Pennsylvania Republicans can only hope.

It will take his announcement that he won't be running for me to go against what I've been saying all along but in the meantime...

Castor-Swann - The Winning Team for Pennsylvania!

[Max Power]

Is it possible that Castor runs as an independent/ third-party candidate because, as you said, the Republican leadership doesn't like him?

If so, how do you think he'd do?

[Keystone Phil]

Is it possible that Castor runs as an independent/ third-party candidate because, as you said, the Republican leadership doesn't like him?

If so, how do you think he'd do?

He wouldn't do that. Unfortunately, when he was acting very foolish, he actually hinted to some of his aides (leaked to the public) that he could run for AG as a Democrat. The idea was shot down and I think he knows to never do that again. He seemed very concerned about advancing the party in his email. Could it be him being a phony? Possibly. However, I really feel he wants a future beyond being Montco DA so he wouldn't bolt.

If he did, though, I'm sure he'd be able to break into single digits in some SE counties, taking away some votes from the GOP nominee. He has a loyal following in Montco.

If the GOP was to nominate a more liberal candidate (Bill Scranton) and Castor was to run, Castor could be the Peg Luksik of '06. Castor is a voiceful conservative and very proud of it (even in liberal Montco). I could see him taking a good amount in the more conservative counties, possibly ending up with a good 12% of the statewide vote. It would also wrap up the election for Rendell. Good thing this won't happen.

[bullmoose88]

I think Santorum has a better chance of holding on against Casey than I do of Swann or Castor upsetting Rendell.

I'm a betting man. I'd put Santorum's race at a push (slightly more optimistic outlook for the GOP), and give Rendell decent, though not great, odds of holding on.

I really haven't heard of much disappointment with Rendell here in the burbs too much yet...I live in Bucks and only know of Castor because he went to the same college I am attending, no one else in this county really knows or cares who he is...and Swann? Could be decent, but he's from the Pittsburgh. East-West rivalry can come into play.

[bullmoose88]

That being said, we're 15 or so months from the general election, and Rendell's sub 50% reelect number is some cause for concern.

[Keystone Phil]

Upon hearing from a family friend, Bruce Castor is not running for Governor next year. My family friend who is related to an elected official from Montco informed me of this news just yesterday. As many may already know, Castor is now looking into a run in PA 13.

[TeePee4Prez]

Upon hearing from a family friend, Bruce Castor is not running for Governor next year. My family friend who is related to an elected official from Montco informed me of this news just yesterday. As many may already know, Castor is now looking into a run in PA 13.

I'll admit he's more deadly to us running for governor.  Please run him in PA 13.  Schwartz will beat him!

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

[TeePee4Prez]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

Ever think of this concept- RENDELL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET!  And no Castor except for the PA 13- HMMM?? 

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

Ever think of this concept- RENDELL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET!  And no Castor except for the PA 13- HMMM?? 

Rendell at the top of the ticket? Ok? Last year was a Presidential election which means much higher turnout. Eddie isn't going to have a high turnout or even the same turnout as 2004. Hate to break that to you.

[TeePee4Prez]

Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.

Ever think of this concept- RENDELL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET!  And no Castor except for the PA 13- HMMM?? 

Rendell at the top of the ticket? Ok? Last year was a Presidential election which means much higher turnout. Eddie isn't going to have a high turnout or even the same turnout as 2004. Hate to break that to you.

And the Republican nominee will?

[Keystone Phil]

And the Republican nominee will?

The turnout will favor the GOP nominee. And if we nominate Swann (looking like that's what will happen), he might be able to turn out the west for us and as I said before, in a battle of east vs. west, the west can win and I think this time they will. They really don't like Rendell. Could you imagine a Keystone Bowl (Eagles vs. Steelers) next year? The state would be completely divided! (Though I'd side with Eddie when it comes to football    )

[MAS117]

And the Republican nominee will?

The turnout will favor the GOP nominee. And if we nominate Swann (looking like that's what will happen), he might be able to turn out the west for us and as I said before, in a battle of east vs. west, the west can win and I think this time they will. They really don't like Rendell. Could you imagine a Keystone Bowl (Eagles vs. Steelers) next year? The state would be completely divided! (Though I'd side with Eddie when it comes to football    )

If its a Steelers v. Eagles Super Bowl, you can expect to see the Governor LIVE ON COMCAST SPORTSNET! WOOHOOO RENDELL FOR GOVERNOR!

[Keystone Phil]

And the Republican nominee will?

The turnout will favor the GOP nominee. And if we nominate Swann (looking like that's what will happen), he might be able to turn out the west for us and as I said before, in a battle of east vs. west, the west can win and I think this time they will. They really don't like Rendell. Could you imagine a Keystone Bowl (Eagles vs. Steelers) next year? The state would be completely divided! (Though I'd side with Eddie when it comes to football    )

If its a Steelers v. Eagles Super Bowl, you can expect to see the Governor LIVE ON COMCAST SPORTSNET!

Comcast SportNet is what's actually going to hurt him the most out west. If there is a Keystone Bowl, he'll really be hurting.

[Sam Spade]

More Rasmussen one-day polling entertainment:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Pennsylvania%20Governor.htm

Lynn Swann (R) 41%
Ed Rendell (D) 47%
Other 3%

Bill Scranton III (R) 42%
Ed Rendell (D) 46%
Other 3%

500 Likely Voters, 4.5% MOE, conducted on July 20, 2005.