PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Speed of Sound]

2. Moron? That's mean and disrepectful.

so is this:

Honestly, who gives a fuc.k what you say.

And you come across as a schmuck.

But that didnt stop you from saying it. Practice what you preach, Casey.

[Jake]

Hahaha, the GOP in PA will become like the IL GOP just because we lose a Governor's election. Yeah pal, you need a clue.

[Max Power]

2. Moron? That's mean and disrepectful.

so is this:

Honestly, who gives a fuc.k what you say.

And you come across as a schmuck.

But that didnt stop you from saying it. Practice what you preach, Casey.

What the hell? I said that to Kevin because he continually attacks Colin for no particullar reason. Then, he posts just enough each election to be allowed on the ballot.

Hahaha, the GOP in PA will become like the IL GOP just because we lose a Governor's election. Yeah pal, you need a clue.

No, the difference is that the IL GOP will win in '06, while the PA GOP won't. Blagojevich is a shoe-in for ex-governor.

[Speed of Sound]

2. Moron? That's mean and disrepectful.

so is this:

Honestly, who gives a fuc.k what you say.

And you come across as a schmuck.

But that didnt stop you from saying it. Practice what you preach, Casey.

What the hell? I said that to Kevin because he continually attacks Colin for no particullar reason. Then, he posts just enough each election to be allowed on the ballot.

You dont like when people do it to you, why should you do it to other people

[Keystone Phil]

What the hell? I said that to Kevin because he continually attacks Colin for no particullar reason. Then, he posts just enough each election to be allowed on the ballot.

He called him "Specterish." Is that really a nasty, personal attack?

[Keystone Phil]

Can both you two hold it for just a second???

Lynn Swan? Football player and Superbowl hero Lynn Swann? Rendell has an unofficial 5 point lead over him? Swanny must be just an aweful politician. What current post does he hold? I thought he was one of those sideline media guys from one of the major networks.

If Swann runs and loses to Rendell, the GOP in PA will really take a hit and could turn into something along the lines of the GOP in IL! Lets see. Which senate candidate reminds us the most of Jack Ryan???

Honestly, I can't think of someone who is more likely to beat Rendell than a former athlete like Swann. Not who's more qualified or the best candidate, but who's more likely to win. This will be just an aweful debacle if the GOP Fcks this one up.

Rendell will be the Barnes (former Governor of GA) of 2006. No one will really expect his defeat but you watch. Eddie's has a huge ego and thinks he has this locked up. His ratings are weak. He's in trouble.

[Kevin]

 At least I didn't say he lured children it to his gingerbread house.

[Max Power]

2. Moron? That's mean and disrepectful.

so is this:

Honestly, who gives a fuc.k what you say.

And you come across as a schmuck.

But that didnt stop you from saying it. Practice what you preach, Casey.

What the hell? I said that to Kevin because he continually attacks Colin for no particullar reason. Then, he posts just enough each election to be allowed on the ballot.

You dont like when people do it to you, why should you do it to other people

Why does Kevin attack Colin for being too liberal, then when asked why he thinks that, he comes up with some strawman? There's no reason for him to do that. And why do you continually support Kevin, despite the fact that he hasn't said a word about what he will actually do, but instead just say "I will be an honost senator"?

[Max Power]

What the hell? I said that to Kevin because he continually attacks Colin for no particullar reason. Then, he posts just enough each election to be allowed on the ballot.

He called him "Specterish." Is that really a nasty, personal attack?

No, but implying that he is dishonest is.

At least i didn't say he lured children it to his gingerbread house.

[Speed of Sound]

2. Moron? That's mean and disrepectful.

so is this:

Honestly, who gives a fuc.k what you say.

And you come across as a schmuck.

But that didnt stop you from saying it. Practice what you preach, Casey.

What the hell? I said that to Kevin because he continually attacks Colin for no particullar reason. Then, he posts just enough each election to be allowed on the ballot.

You dont like when people do it to you, why should you do it to other people

Why does Kevin attack Colin for being too liberal, then when asked why he thinks that, he comes up with some strawman? There's no reason for him to do that. And why do you continually support Kevin, despite the fact that he hasn't said a word about what he will actually do, but instead just say "I will be an honost senator"?

we're not debating how he campaigns here, we're debating that you said that 'moron' is mean, and yet youre willing to call someone else a schmuck. Make up your mind Casey.

[RJ]

Hahaha, the GOP in PA will become like the IL GOP just because we lose a Governor's election. Yeah pal, you need a clue.

Hmm, let's just think about this for a second.

The GOP in PA has better candidates than in IL with Swann as a potential nominee for Governor. Many former athletes or those involved in prominent athletics in politics have fared well. See Osborne in Nebraska. Watts in Oklahoma. Bunning in KY. Steve Young has expressed interest in running for a political office in California. I bet even he could win out there. In addition, Rendell is on the ropes and in most states he'd be finished.

Santorum, a sitting US senator and one of the highest ranking Republicans, is losing right now to Casey in just about every major poll. If what I'm reading is correct, the GOP is on a pace to lose both races next year by over 5%. These 2 races are very winnable and although they appear to hold an advantage for the Republicans, they stand to lose both!

You live in that state and you can't see this?

[Jake]

Nice job calling an election 14 months out. You obviously are oblivious to the fact that Casey is riding high because of his positive name recognition, not because his ideas are in any way more acceptable to Pennsylvanians. Of course, you also fail to realize the Democrats haven't won a Senate election in PA in over 30 years and that the Governor has tended to alternate back and forth between Republicans and Democrats the last 30+ years. Certainly, the Democrats were not dead in PA after 1998 when Lloyd and Itkin lost to Specter and Ridge.

[RJ]

Nice job calling an election 14 months out.

If you read what I wrote at first, I said IF the GOP loses this race.

Suppose they lose both races. Odds are right now that may happen. Of course, there are 14 months left and a lot can happen. These are 2 races, like I said, that the GOP has a great chance in(at least on paper). If it does, will you then give any credit to the theory that the GOP in PA has serious problems?

By the way, Illinois was once Republican ground.

[Jake]

Yeah, maybe if they show a steady decline, but seriously, the Democrats were in this situation in 1998 (which you ignored I see) and they came back to win 4 years later and have a good shot at both races next year. The Republicans losing both elections next year means nothing unless it turns into a trend with them losing in 2010 and 2012. That is very unlikely to happen.

[Keystone Phil]

These are 2 races, like I said, that the GOP has a great chance in(at least on paper). If it does, will you then give any credit to the theory that the GOP in PA has serious problems?

No because they can't really prevent how popular Casey is. It's all in the name. You could blame the PA GOP a little for the Gubernatorial race if we lose because Rendell is clearly vulnerable.

[Max Power]

Right now, I see a Rendell victory with 52.7% to Swann's 47.3%, with lower turnout, which causes the senate race to be closer than expected. But Jake's right, you can't really call the election yet, although you can always guess, and I'm guessing a PA hold in 2006, but a reasonably large Republican victory in 2010. As for Illinois, Blagojevich should start packing his bags, as that's one race where it's clear he'll loose.

[RJ]

Getting a little off track here, but Santorum is a two term incumbent. I realize Casey was popular in PA, but hasn't Santorum aquired any legacy or name recognition? Why isn't he as popular as Casey(sr)?

Losing both races by 5+ points doesn't exactly equate to a trend, but it just doesn't sound like good management in the event it happens. Here in Ohio, the Democratic party has been just terrible in recent years and I honestly think it has set a trend in this state. The Governor's seat, both Senate seats, 2/3 of the congressional slots and the majority(about 60-40) of the state house and senate are Republican. Kerry, of course, fought an uphill battle here last year. Democrats should have an advantage next year with the GOP here being vulnerable(Dewine & the Gov's race). This state has changed hands quite a few times over the last 50-75 years, but if the Democrats don't get it together next year, they'll be the laughing stock across the midwest. I call em' like I see em', not like a partisan hack.
Maybe my comparison to Illinois was a an exageration, but I think there'll be issues with the GOP in PA if the current circumstances continue.

[Jake]

Except there aren't any current circumstances. The Democrats have a dream Senate candidate and the Republicans have been hurt this year because our bench is a bit short (honestly, do you think we'd run Swann if Toomey or Hart were interested ). When the Democrats start picking up House seats, State Senate seats, and State House seats on a regular basis, give me a call. That's certainly not what's happening.

[Keystone Phil]

When the Democrats start picking up House seats, State Senate seats, and State House seats on a regular basis, give me a call. That's certainly not what's happening.

Have we ever heard why Flyers thinks the delegation might get close to, or even becoming, Dem in 2006?

[Jake]

Something about being a partisan hack.

[Keystone Phil]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

[TeePee4Prez]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

[nini2287]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

I think Gerlach is much more vulnerable than Fitz.  Even though Schrader was a weak candidate, Fitz still got about the same percentage of votes as Schwartz, and I don't think Schwartz is going anywhere, espeically now that both of them will have some seniority under their belts come 2006.  Warren might be able to appeal to some Republicans and I think he might be th ebest chance to beat Fitz

[TeePee4Prez]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

I think Gerlach is much more vulnerable than Fitz.  Even though Schrader was a weak candidate, Fitz still got about the same percentage of votes as Schwartz, and I don't think Schwartz is going anywhere, espeically now that both of them will have some seniority under their belts come 2006.  Warren might be able to appeal to some Republicans and I think he might be th ebest chance to beat Fitz

That being said the Democrats have a better chance at PA 8 than the GOP does with PA 13 even with Castor.

[nini2287]

Something about being a partisan hack.

Well, beyond that. It's difficult for even the most extreme hack to see the Dems regaining control of the delegation. Is he expecting Curt Weldon or Phil English to lose? Maybe Hart?

I'm only expecting Jim Gerlach and possibly Mike Fitzpatrick.  I am also hoping for a very outside chance at Tim Murphy.  If those 3 flip, so does the delegation.  Weldon's seat may flip upon retirement, but not in 2006.  For the record (note this isn't my expected margin of victory rather their chances of winning):

Chance Jim Gerlach -> Lois Murphy: 54%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Patrick Murphy: 50%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Paul Lang: 48%
             Mike Fitzpatrick -> Andy Warren: 52%

I don't know much about PA 18 and I don't think it will flip.  I am hoping for a 10-9 delegation in 2006 after all is said and done.  If Weldon retires soon (before 2010), I smell the possibility of a 10-9 Dem delegation as well.  Ok, I concede Charlie Dent in PA 15 is pretty safe.

I think Gerlach is much more vulnerable than Fitz.  Even though Schrader was a weak candidate, Fitz still got about the same percentage of votes as Schwartz, and I don't think Schwartz is going anywhere, espeically now that both of them will have some seniority under their belts come 2006.  Warren might be able to appeal to some Republicans and I think he might be th ebest chance to beat Fitz

That being said the Democrats have a better chance at PA 8 than the GOP does with PA 13 even with Castor.

Oh yeah, PA-13 is about as solid as PA-15 is for the GOP.