North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

How are you all discussing maps when there's no picture and the link doesn't provide one either?

(If it does I'm not finding it, only text, I'll need a more direct link.)

Version 1 (the upper link): https://webservices.ncleg.gov/ViewBillDocument/2023/7447/0/DRS45377-ST-64

Version 2 (the bottom link): https://webservices.ncleg.gov/ViewBillDocument/2023/7448/0/DRS45378-ST-63

You can search county names on the description file and see which district they're in.

[Tintrlvr]

NC-2 is entirely within Wake County in both versions, so that's obviously a dem sink.  NC-12 is entirely in Mecklenburg County in both versions too, so same there.

I rmbr there was one joke of a Republican map proposal in the 2020 cycle that tried to split Charlotte like 4 ways with no Dem sink. Huge dummymander given one of the seats still narrowly voted for Biden in 2020. Ceding a Charlotte and Raleigh based districts are essential for any R gerrymander at this point.

Also any such map would definitely get challenged on Section 2 grounds in the current judicial environment. I think there's a chance for such a challenge to splitting up Greensboro and Winston-Salem, depending on how the South Carolina case goes.

[GALeftist]

These are basically the two scenarios you're looking at. Filled in Scenario 2 a little more because I was curious about potential for failure. Conclusion: 4 and 3 *should* be fine, but 13 is a little iffy: went from about Trump+17 in 2016 to about Trump+12 in 2020.

[Devils30]

These are basically the two scenarios you're looking at. Filled in Scenario 2 a little more because I was curious about potential for failure. Conclusion: 4 and 3 *should* be fine, but 13 is a little iffy: went from about Trump+17 in 2016 to about Trump+12 in 2020.

So #1 is a 10-3-1 map and #2 a 10-4 map?

[SnowLabrador]

This is not good, and it'll only help Trump in the state. I think a lot of Democrats (really, it doesn't take a lot) will be discouraged from voting. And so the vicious cycle continues.

[Devils30]

Not a single average voter knows wtf gerrymandering even is. And you can't gerrymander the statewide NC result!

[Vern]

Maps just dropped on the site

[Vern]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maps just dropped on the site

And I'll include a direct link: https://webservices.ncleg.gov/ViewBillDocument/2023/7467/0/Filed%20-%2019%20x%2036%20Map

[GALeftist]

These are basically the two scenarios you're looking at. Filled in Scenario 2 a little more because I was curious about potential for failure. Conclusion: 4 and 3 *should* be fine, but 13 is a little iffy: went from about Trump+17 in 2016 to about Trump+12 in 2020.

So #1 is a 10-3-1 map and #2 a 10-4 map?

Scenario 2 is an 11-3 map. One Democrat in Mecklenburg, one in Wake, and one in the Frankenstein seat that combines current NC-01 and NC-04. Scenario 1 is comparatively boring – Charlotte gets its one Democrat, Research Triangle gets its two, one swing seat in the northeast, and everything else is Safe R.

I personally would expect 10-3-1 – it seems a little safer against both lawsuits and Wake trends, and I would honestly be pretty surprised if Biden won that version of NC-01 in 2024 anyway (it was Budd+6 in 2022). Davis might win once or twice more but after that it's probably gone anyway.

[Sol]

Some takeaways:
-The two congressional maps look like sneaky attempts at 10-3; version 2 is theoretically 9-4 but that 1st district is clearly designed to ride the wave of Republican vote growth in that part of the state.
-The 4th district in Map 1 looks like it has some dummymander potential by the end of the decade, which is a bit inevitable if you try to draw out Foushee.
-Both versions have a "elect Tim Moore to Congress" seat, as expected.
-The State Senate map follows county clusters (good news!). However, they went with the rather VRA questionable version of the clusters in NE NC, which is not good.
-State Senate map draws out Democrat Natasha Marcus's house, which is a bit surprising because they cut a deal with her on it in 2020.
-SD-18 and SD-13 look like attempts to squeeze Republican seats out of Wake, and SD-42 is doing something similar in Meck.
-Added in a bill designed to give Republicans control of the Watauga County commission, lol
-No House map as of yet, unless I'm missing something. This will be the most ambitious and complciated gerrymander of all of them, most likely, so I'll keep a look out.

[Nyvin]

Senate Bill 756:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/30e0ad96-60aa-474f-ae99-492a1c410472

Senate Bill 757:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/7642e884-290a-4ab5-9986-96ad6baa2ebf

756 is a rock solid 11-3

757 is more like a 10-3-1

[Oryxslayer]

Map 1:



Map 2:

[Nyvin]

LOL, every single R district on 756 is between 41% and 44.8% Biden.

Surgical precision.

[OBD]

Pretty clearly time for Dems to take the gloves off. New York is first.

Wouldn't mind if California and Washington revisited their commissions as well

[SnowLabrador]

Pretty clearly time for Dems to take the gloves off. New York is first.

Wouldn't mind if California and Washington revisited their commissions as well

They won't. Republicans play 5D chess, Democrats play the simplest version of checkers imaginable. The Dems don't know how to fight.

[GALeftist]

People keep saying that NC-01 (and NC-12, but that's less relevant) are VRA protected and tbh I don't think that's right. Cooper v. Harris established that you can't do weird tendril stuff to reach 50% Black CVAP and I don't think you can reach that benchmark in either area without those tendrils, so it seems to me that it fails Gingles. Not 100% sure though.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the senate plan, which obviously isn't as eye-catching as congress. Currently the Senate is 30-20 R-D, and the map seemingly admits this to be the soft ceiling as long as nesting is maintained. But the floor is pushed above 25, and thats what matters.

The GOP won the marginally D, plurality Black Northeast district in 2022, so the redraw to the alternative configuration that has two Majority White districts doesn't affect the math.

Guildford, Forsyth, Buncombe, and Cumberland are sorted based on partisanship to solidify the GOP seats that take in bits of the region.

SD13, 18, and 42 are attempts to create seats winnable for the GOP in blue counties. but these Dem-Held seats were all competitive by some definition before, so a small right-shift doesn't change their overall identity.

The precincts District 8 take from New Hanover are more Dem than the previous precincts, but the district remains marginal.

[Sol]

State House:
link

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Makes perfect sense for a state that's basically 50/50 to send 11 Republicans and 3 Democrats to congress.

[Nyvin]

Senate Map:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/97807395-2c69-4ee7-82c8-3d159c2e8e2d

They conceded SD-19 to make SD-21 safe R.  Also they keep most of the country groupings, except a few in the northeast.

The cut that SD-8 makes into New Hanover is pretty dirty IMO.

[Sol]

State House still quite aggressive but not as much as I expected; they don't draw out Reives.

[Oryxslayer]

People keep saying that NC-01 (and NC-12, but that's less relevant) are VRA protected and tbh I don't think that's right. Cooper v. Harris established that you can't do weird tendril stuff to reach 50% Black CVAP and I don't think you can reach that benchmark in either area without those tendrils, so it seems to me that it fails Gingles. Not 100% sure though.

The claim against it would be illegal diminishment of ability to elect candidates of choice, in line with the FL-05 cases (the Federal and State ones are basically identical, just operating under different VRAs). As always when we discuss minority access, 50% has stopped being a hard threshold, what matters is RPV, turnout, and outcomes. A district in rural Mississippi or Louisiana requires more than 50% by these measures, while urban seats often can perform with considerably less.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, SH112 is so ugly it can only be explained as the "reelect Tricia Cotham" district, but even that may not save her.

[Sol]

Carolina forward has the maps in DRA.

link