North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Devils30]

10-4 attempt makes some sense for the GOP, 9-5 should be ok with the courts. Not sure why they keep mentioning 11-3, that probably has serious dummymander risk come 2026.

[Devils30]

The 4th district might go Dem in 4/6 years with additional Raleigh growth.

[Devils30]

No? If the 2016 map wasn't struck federally for tri cracking the Triad I don't see how this would get struck.

I agree on VRA grounds but I hope the Supreme Court strikes down the court's ability to draw congressional maps. Arizona 2015 held that commissions could be considered legislatures, but a court obviously isn't one.

Be very careful what you wish for. If only legislatures can draw maps, get ready for a 50-2 CA, 8-1-1 WA, 7-1 CO map.

[Devils30]

Anyone think that Roe gone could keep the NC high court in Dem hands and cost the GOP with maps for the entire decade? I feel that the court is the easiest Dem victory.

[Devils30]

I wonder if they will go for 11-3 or just give Davis NC-1 and create a safe 10-4 map to avoid the risk of losing multiple seats in a future wave.

[Devils30]

I wonder if Rs will just cede NC-1 with a Dem incumbent to create a 10-4 map designed to survive the decade.

[Devils30]

This will end the ISL case at the Supreme Court, GOP will net 3-4 in NC but Dems probably will get 1-2 back from Wisconsin. WI's legislature never actually passed a map into law (no bill signed) so Dems are probably only down 1-2 seats and that's before any Hochulmander could be reinstated.

[Devils30]

These are basically the two scenarios you're looking at. Filled in Scenario 2 a little more because I was curious about potential for failure. Conclusion: 4 and 3 *should* be fine, but 13 is a little iffy: went from about Trump+17 in 2016 to about Trump+12 in 2020.

So #1 is a 10-3-1 map and #2 a 10-4 map?

[Devils30]

Not a single average voter knows wtf gerrymandering even is. And you can't gerrymander the statewide NC result!