Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[cp]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

What happened to "these incumbents are using their public office to enrich themselves at your expense and no longer deserve to hold it. Vote for me, the challenger"? I understand why "low information" and very partisan voters don't care but college educated voters (like most Biden-Perdue ticket splitters) should respond well to this kind of attack since they value good governance.

Polarization at work, plus fear of what the other side will do with complete power.

Bit of a tangent, and maybe just a semantic point, but 'complete power' is hardly the apt term for a 50-50 Dem Senate, a 6-seat majority in the House, and a centrist President. To the extent there's anything to 'fear' in this formulation it's the fear that the GOP loses its veto over literally any legislative change, not 'complete power' for the Democrats.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

What happened to "these incumbents are using their public office to enrich themselves at your expense and no longer deserve to hold it. Vote for me, the challenger"? I understand why "low information" and very partisan voters don't care but college educated voters (like most Biden-Perdue ticket splitters) should respond well to this kind of attack since they value good governance.

Polarization at work, plus fear of what the other side will do with complete power.

Bit of a tangent, and maybe just a semantic point, but 'complete power' is hardly the apt term for a 50-50 Dem Senate, a 6-seat majority in the House, and a centrist President. To the extent there's anything to 'fear' in this formulation it's the fear that the GOP loses its veto over literally any legislative change, not 'complete power' for the Democrats.

It's about perception as seen by the voters in question, these voters the previous poster had mentioned. Historically yes, but in a polarized environment these scandals matter less.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1335026005669376000?s=20

This is pretty funny, though ultimately it won't change anyone's minds, but may help get more voters engeged.

[VAR]

RIP Perdue Chicken

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1335026005669376000

This is pretty funny, though ultimately it won't change anyone's minds, but may help get more voters engeged.

That ad is an insult to the Grinch. At least he redeemed himself in the end. Can't see Perdue/Loeffler ever doing so

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/PerdueChicken/status/1333838407714418693

https://twitter.com/PerdueChicken/status/1333473498623336450

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1335346769270435841

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

F#cking morons do your damn research before attacking Perdue chicken, you all look stupid, and stop harassing these people, stupid twitterverse.  

[brucejoel99]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

You're correct about Loeffler, she stays in her seat 'til the special election results are certified (& 'til 2023 if she wins it).

With regards to the regular seat, it becomes vacant on Jan. 3rd at noon & will remain so until the race is certified in either Perdue or Ossoff's favor, like how MN was short one Senator until it was determined that Franken had won.

In any event, Perdue himself is f**ked either way, though, because his Senate seniority will reset back to zero: even if he wins, he'll have technically left the Senate & rejoined, meaning he'll have fallen behind dozens of other Senators (including Loeffler herself) on the seniority hierarchy, & it'll require the Senate passing a resolution for his seniority to be restored to what it otherwise would be if he were able to be re-sworn in on Jan. 3rd.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

10 pounds of perdue nugs lol

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

You're correct about Loeffler, she stays in her seat 'til the special election results are certified (& 'til 2023 if she wins it).

With regards to the regular seat, it becomes vacant on Jan. 3rd at noon & will remain so until the race is certified in either Perdue or Ossoff's favor, like how MN was short one Senator until it was determined that Franken had won.

In any event, Perdue himself is f**ked either way, though, because his Senate seniority will reset back to zero: even if he wins, he'll have technically left the Senate & rejoined, meaning he'll have fallen behind dozens of other Senators (including Loeffler herself) on the seniority hierarchy, & it'll require the Senate passing a resolution for his seniority to be restored to what it otherwise would be if he were able to be re-sworn in on Jan. 3rd.

Why are these in January anyway? They were in December in 2008 IIRC.

[brucejoel99]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

You're correct about Loeffler, she stays in her seat 'til the special election results are certified (& 'til 2023 if she wins it).

With regards to the regular seat, it becomes vacant on Jan. 3rd at noon & will remain so until the race is certified in either Perdue or Ossoff's favor, like how MN was short one Senator until it was determined that Franken had won.

In any event, Perdue himself is f**ked either way, though, because his Senate seniority will reset back to zero: even if he wins, he'll have technically left the Senate & rejoined, meaning he'll have fallen behind dozens of other Senators (including Loeffler herself) on the seniority hierarchy, & it'll require the Senate passing a resolution for his seniority to be restored to what it otherwise would be if he were able to be re-sworn in on Jan. 3rd.

Why are these in January anyway? They were in December in 2008 IIRC.

Because the federal runoff procedure that was still in-use back then (4 weeks after the 1st round) didn't comply with UOCAVA. It already takes a couple weeks to certify the 1st round's results in the 1st place, & then after that, federal law requires at least 45 days to ensure that eligible military & overseas voters can fully participate in a runoff. Hence, Jan. 5th.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

You're correct about Loeffler, she stays in her seat 'til the special election results are certified (& 'til 2023 if she wins it).

With regards to the regular seat, it becomes vacant on Jan. 3rd at noon & will remain so until the race is certified in either Perdue or Ossoff's favor, like how MN was short one Senator until it was determined that Franken had won.

In any event, Perdue himself is f**ked either way, though, because his Senate seniority will reset back to zero: even if he wins, he'll have technically left the Senate & rejoined, meaning he'll have fallen behind dozens of other Senators (including Loeffler herself) on the seniority hierarchy, & it'll require the Senate passing a resolution for his seniority to be restored to what it otherwise would be if he were able to be re-sworn in on Jan. 3rd.

Why are these in January anyway? They were in December in 2008 IIRC.

Because the federal runoff procedure that was still in-use back then (4 weeks after the 1st round) didn't comply with UOCAVA. It already takes a couple weeks to certify the 1st round's results in the 1st place, & then after that, federal law requires at least 45 days to ensure that eligible military & overseas voters can fully participate in a runoff. Hence, Jan. 5th.

Yet LA can hold a House runoff tonight?

[brucejoel99]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

You're correct about Loeffler, she stays in her seat 'til the special election results are certified (& 'til 2023 if she wins it).

With regards to the regular seat, it becomes vacant on Jan. 3rd at noon & will remain so until the race is certified in either Perdue or Ossoff's favor, like how MN was short one Senator until it was determined that Franken had won.

In any event, Perdue himself is f**ked either way, though, because his Senate seniority will reset back to zero: even if he wins, he'll have technically left the Senate & rejoined, meaning he'll have fallen behind dozens of other Senators (including Loeffler herself) on the seniority hierarchy, & it'll require the Senate passing a resolution for his seniority to be restored to what it otherwise would be if he were able to be re-sworn in on Jan. 3rd.

Why are these in January anyway? They were in December in 2008 IIRC.

Because the federal runoff procedure that was still in-use back then (4 weeks after the 1st round) didn't comply with UOCAVA. It already takes a couple weeks to certify the 1st round's results in the 1st place, & then after that, federal law requires at least 45 days to ensure that eligible military & overseas voters can fully participate in a runoff. Hence, Jan. 5th.

Yet LA can hold a House runoff tonight?

Military & overseas voters from LA cast ranked-choice ballots in races that featured more than 2 candidates prior to the Nov. 3rd election.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1335379826245570561

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4w--Vhjteg
He's endorsed them but continues to claim it's all rigged.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Trump's going full on election bullshist claiming ""Great Pollster John Mclaughlin"(Famous for showing Cantor in 34 point lead in a primary race for Cantor that he lost by 11 points) said a bunch of a bullsh**t about how his primary voters means he should have won.


https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's going full on election bullshist claiming ""Great Pollster John Mclaughlin"(Famous for showing Cantor in 34 point lead in a primary race for Cantor that he lost by 11 points) said a bunch of a bullsh**t about how his primary voters means he should have won.


https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

That's about what I expected. His rallies are never actually about why his crowds should vote for these candidates he is ostensibly there for as much as they are opportunities for him to engage in stream-of-consciousness grievance airing. And now there's the added consequence of him enabling the spread of the coronavirus and possibly even the stranding of his own supporters.

Also as usual, I doubt it actually affects anything, regardless of the outcome of the election.

[2016]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

[Roll Roons]

Selzer's done polls of other states, right?

[MillennialModerate]

Sadly he has stuck to script ... probably the only hope we had was him going off the rails

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146

This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sadly he has stuck to script ... probably the only hope we had was him going off the rails

You still pretending to know what's going on in Georgia?