🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Logical]

I have seen the numbers on twitter and all I can say is that every party is within the margin of error of the polling averages.

[Astatine]

CDU voters "tend to vote in the morning" so you might expect a mid/early-afternoon poll to look good for them.

Pollsters account for that and adjust their exit polls accordingly.

[buritobr]

I am surprised to learn that CDU voters go to the polls in the morning. The election takes place on Sunday. I though CDU voters go to the church in the morning.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

These Germans are in the paleolithic... they use paper ballots!

A lot of European countries do, including Britain.

From my recollection, the Swedish ballots are even more insane.

[jaichind]

Hubert Aiwanger, Bavaria's Deputy Minister-President and leader of the Free Voters, has shared confidential exit polls on Twitter, and now he might get into big trouble for that.

Why would he do this ? Get marginal CDU/CSU voters not to give up and come out to vote ?

[Mike88]

These Germans are in the paleolithic... they use paper ballots!

A lot of European countries do, including Britain.

From my recollection, the Swedish ballots are even more insane.

Here we are given 3 ballots today for the local elections.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I'm obviously too dumb or too colorblind to recognize those digits (bar the SPD). 🤷🏼‍♂️
Those censored numbers remind me of Ishihara tests. lol.

[urutzizu]

I am surprised to learn that CDU voters go to the polls in the morning. The election takes place on Sunday. I though CDU voters go to the church in the morning.

Yes, they get up early and then they go right after Church is the traditional explaination. In 2005 for instance the CDU knew things were very bad when the leaked exits at midday had them under 40%.

Anyway, that is if this isn't just what Aiwanger is pulling out of his behind to get more votes. I mean I think should treat this as we would with any "leaked information" a noted-antivaxxer spread on their social media without any sources whatsoever.

[Kabam]

I can't read the CDU/CSU's number? Are they really higher than the SPD numbers?

[BigSerg]

Honestly, banning polls is totally stupid

[Mike88]

I can't read the CDU/CSU's number? Are they really higher than the SPD numbers?

Maybe not, because AfD is in last in that tweet but the share is above Linke. Don't pay much attention to this kind of "rumour polls". They just create noise. In 40 minutes, we will know the outcome.

[Kabam]

I can't read the CDU/CSU's number? Are they really higher than the SPD numbers?

Maybe not, because AfD is in last in that tweet but the share is above Linke. Don't pay much attention to this kind of "rumour polls". They just create noise. In 40 minutes, we will know the outcome.

Probably true. I am just desperatly waiting for the results right now. ^^

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I can't read the CDU/CSU's number? Are they really higher than the SPD numbers?

CDU at 25% SPD at 26%

[parochial boy]

I am surprised to learn that CDU voters go to the polls in the morning. The election takes place on Sunday. I though CDU voters go to the church in the morning.

Yes, they get up early and then they go right after Church is the traditional explaination. In 2005 for instance the CDU knew things were very bad when the leaked exits at midday had them under 40%.

Anyway, that is if this isn't just what Aiwanger is pulling out of his behind to get more votes. I mean I think should treat this as we would with any "leaked information" a noted-antivaxxer spread on their social media without any sources whatsoever.

Haha yeah, in fact if you can make out what the Freie Wähler's number is there it definitely raises a few eyebrows (and makes it quite obvious what he is trying to do).

[Mike88]

I can't read the CDU/CSU's number? Are they really higher than the SPD numbers?

Maybe not, because AfD is in last in that tweet but the share is above Linke. Don't pay much attention to this kind of "rumour polls". They just create noise. In 40 minutes, we will know the outcome.

Probably true. I am just desperatly waiting for the results right now. ^^

Relax. There's little time left until the top of the hour.

[jaichind]

Would not the larger number of VBM make the exit polls less likely to be accurate ?

[YL]

Both in 2010 and 2017 in the UK there were rumoured exit polls, in the latter case tweeted by a well known media figure.  In both cases the rumours were way off both the results and the actual exit polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ahem. There is a rule here about not breaking laws, even when they seem to be quite silly. Behave children, behave

[Mike88]

TV networks live coverage:

ARD

ZDF

[afleitch]

Please do not share exit poll numbers until official release.

[Sven der Igel]

Can’t wait for the results to come in.

Armin „gaffe“ Laschet made another blunder today by folding his ballot paper incorrectly, showing everyone that he voted 2x CDU.

Hahaha.

[President Johnson]

Man, I’m nervous as hell, now at our local SPD party.

[urutzizu]

Economic Competence of the FDP according to the exit polls. FDP looking really good if thats true.

[Astatine]

Economic Competence of the FDP according to the exit polls. FDP looking really good if thats true.

Oh definitely. I analyzed the correlation between FDP results and their competence values on economic issues once (all elections since 2012), with the following result:

[palandio]

TV networks live coverage:

ARD

ZDF

They interviewed people in a beergarden in Maxlrain, that's almost where I grew up.