🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[jaichind]

New poll for the federal election:



Man, I hate the multi-party system, when none is polling above 30%. Too many parties!

Wow, the Right lead over Left has been reduced to 1 (48-47)

[jaichind]

The 5 pm exit polls now show a much much closer race.

This is a leaked version of the exit poll which I assume will not come out until 6pm ?

[jaichind]

If by chance the Greens edged out the CDU and were the largest party would the CDU be willing to be a junior partner in a Green led coalition with a Green chancellor?

Would they not learn the less of what happen to the SPD since 2005 to avoid accepting that ?

[jaichind]

What are the chances of Green-SPD-FDP getting together to form a majority ?

[jaichind]

When will the VBM be counted. Before, during or after the election day vote is counted ?

[jaichind]

Hubert Aiwanger, Bavaria's Deputy Minister-President and leader of the Free Voters, has shared confidential exit polls on Twitter, and now he might get into big trouble for that.

Why would he do this ? Get marginal CDU/CSU voters not to give up and come out to vote ?

[jaichind]

Would not the larger number of VBM make the exit polls less likely to be accurate ?

[jaichind]

ARD Exit:

25% Union, 200 seats
25% SPD, 197 seats
15% Grune 119
11% AFD 87
11% FDP 87
5% Linke 39


Hope y'all enjoy a long night.

Afd Down and Linke possibly kicked out great result

I thought if Linke won enough direct mandates they will not be kicked out even if they fell below 5% ?

[jaichind]

Reminds me of 2005 when a ruling party that has been around for a while (in that case SPD)  and was expected to be soundly beaten comes back and beat the pre-election polls into a virtual tie its main opponent.

[jaichind]

FDP's Kubicki indicates that FPD prefer Jamaica coalition.

[jaichind]

CDU/CSU should go into opposition.  The next election could be even worse for them if they continue being in government.

[jaichind]

Did any of the exit polls have any info on the FW vote.  Seems to be if CDU/CSU does fall behind SPD it was the FW that cost them from being the largest bloc.

[jaichind]

I assume dieBasis cut into the AfD vote ?

[jaichind]

If you split out CDU and CSU then AfD is now the #1 party

[jaichind]

If you split out CDU and CSU then AfD is now the #1 party

In other words, they still aren't in any meaningful sense?

Agreed.  But still a very impressive technical achievement.  Go AfD !!!

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

[jaichind]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-farmers-protest-causes-nationwide-disruption/live-67913441

"Germany: Farmers' protest causes nationwide disruption"

I have to assume this will not help the government's popularity

[jaichind]

The economic backdrop to the poll ratings of the ruling bloc, especially the old labor union based SPD

[jaichind]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-farmers-protest-causes-nationwide-disruption/live-67913441

"Germany: Farmers' protest causes nationwide disruption"

I have to assume this will not help the government's popularity

It also doesn't seem to help farmers' popularity, actually.

https://www.ft.com/content/2ca79669-b7f2-4067-a4bf-0d85e74dde98

"Fractious German coalition lurches from crisis to crisis"

A Forsa poll found 81 per cent of voters sympathise with the protests, and 66 per cent think the diesel subsidy should be reinstated. An INSA poll found 45 per cent of Germans could imagine following the farmers and taking to the streets against the government.