🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

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Right wingers: idpol and collectivism is bad

Also right wingers: we should view every single ethnic group as a monolith with a single collective impact on the nation as a whole

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GRÜNE-G/EFA: 27% (+9)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 12% (-5)
AfD-EFDD: 11% (-2)
FDP-ALDE: 8%
LINKE-LEFT: 7% (-1)

(Forsa)

That SPD result, incidentally, would be the worst since 1887.

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Could the Greens replace SPD as main party of left.  In many ways left today is a lot different than in the past.  In the past was mostly blue collar workers but much of that has swung over to the right while present day left is more your younger woke urban types so in many ways Greens seem better suited to appeal to today's left wingers than SPD.  In past income, religion, and job were big determinants of voting patterns whereas now it seems more urban vs. rural (smaller urban areas and suburbs fall in between) and age and education while income matters less.

I think the most you can say is that the notion of the "people's party" has essentially become defunct and that the left are much more willing to shop around with their vote than they once were; which can just as easily swing back and curse the Greens than anything else. The Martin Scholz bump was very silly in retrospect, but it indicates that the SPD is not a toxic brand and could potentially be a viable force.

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why are the SDP in love with people with surnames beginning with "Sch" (or at least an S)?

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seems more like the Social Democratic Parties are victims of their own success - the social democratic policies they pushed for more or less have survived in the policies of other parties. After all, it's not like any of the other parties are pushing for the abolition of public healthcare or co-determination in the workplace.

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Question is if the Greens have enough to take the chancellorship would the SDP join government yet again as a junior partner? I imagine the party desperately wants to escape the confines of its role as subordinate and recover for a while, but what if their is a surprise green double red majority?

Of course I imagine it would be a Jamaica or black green coalition anyway, but still.

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I know that there would never be a Brasilien Koalition incluind the Green, the FDP and the AfD. It would be weird an environmentalist liberal fascist government.

Yes, that would be bizarre.

In "Look Who's Back" Hitler, repulsed at the NPD for aesthetic reasons, uses the Greens as his electoral vehicle.

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If Germans were less afraid of minorities a red-green coalition that juggles deals alternatively with Die Linke, Union and the FDP would be a pretty ideal government.

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I think some people confuse the blockade around the AfD as a self imposed challenge by CDU politicians, while it's more that the CDU base really despise the AfD and tend to react very badly when politicians broach the subject. In a decade or so, if the AfD is still around and both parties have been through generational turnover, things might be different (similar to how Linke has slowly been redeemed for alliances with SPD and Greens, even as its brand of generational turnover is also leading to the party's slow death).

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I wonder is there is just a little evil voice in Scholz's head that's suggesting reviving the grand coalition but with CDU doing submissive duty. Would almost certainly backfire but wouldn't it be so tempting?

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These Germans are in the paleolithic... they use paper ballots!

A lot of European countries do, including Britain.

From my recollection, the Swedish ballots are even more insane.

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I've already switched the TV off. Always forget how boring election night coverage actually is. Just a load of interviews with about three seconds of excitement when the polls close [/hottake]

Say what you like about FPTP it tends to lead to far more interesting election coverage than PR.