🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So in RLP it seems that the vote share for "Others" (without including Die Linke or FW) has more than doubled (!). Any idea who's benefiting from this?

I'd guess DIE PARTEI and Volt.

[Astatine]

So in RLP it seems that the vote share for "Others" (without including Die Linke or FW) has more than doubled (!). Any idea who's benefiting from this?

According to current vote count (which is not necessarily as representative as the data including exit polls - https://wahlen2021.rlp.de/de/ltw/wahlen/2021//land/index.html):

Left 2.7
Animal Protection Party 1.8
PARTEI 1.2
VOLT 0.9

VOLT could still clear the 1.0 % threshold for federal party subsidies.

[Astatine]

New FGW numbers:

BW

Greens 31.4
CDU 23.4
AfD 11.9
SPD 10.9
FDP 11.0

RLP

SPD 35.5
CDU 26.9
AfD 9.3
Greens 8.2
FDP 5.9
FW 5.8

[Astatine]

Btw, whoever wants to follow the municipal elections in Hesse: https://www.hessenschau.de/politik/wahlen/kommunalwahlen/ergebnisse/kommunalwahl-2021-ab-18-uhr---alle-ergebnisse-fuer-hessen,kommunalwahl-ergebnisse-hessen-alle-100.html

It might take a while until the results are announced tho, voters have multiple votes in local elections.

[President Johnson]

SPD and Greens are climbing in their respective states. Malu would actually be a great chancellor candidate as well. She's awesome.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371167385751797761
https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371166936969658371

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Btw, whoever wants to follow the municipal elections in Hesse: https://www.hessenschau.de/politik/wahlen/kommunalwahlen/ergebnisse/kommunalwahl-2021-ab-18-uhr---alle-ergebnisse-fuer-hessen,kommunalwahl-ergebnisse-hessen-alle-100.html

It might take a while until the results are announced tho, voters have multiple votes in local elections.

Oh, including county and even municipal maps. And I love county and municipal maps.

I've tried to look up the results on hr.de (Hesse's state TV channel), but I wondered why they didn't display any results yet.

[Alcibiades]

How likely is an Ampelkoalition in Baden-Württemberg? Do you think the Greens would be at all eager to kick the CDU?

(As an anecdote, my grandmother, who lives in Freiburg and is usually a staunch SPD supporter, voted Green.)

[President Johnson]

How likely is an Ampelkoaliton in Baden-Württemberg? Do you think the Greens would be at all eager to kick the CDU?

(As an anecdote, my grandmother, who lives in Freiburg and is usually a staunch SPD supporter, voted Green.)

I'd say 50/50 at this point. The SPD definitely wants to be back the cabinet table and unlike in 2016, FDP leader Hans-Ulrich Rülke has expressed openness for talks. At this point, it's pretty much up to the Greens. What speaks for a continuation of Greens-CDU is that exit polls show voters preferring this coalition and a two party coalition is always easier to manage than having three governing partners.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

That's not the SPD electoral history in RLP, that's the largest party share over the years.

Back in 1950s SPD was smaller and their worst performance in RLP is just 31.7% in 1955. They're easily going to beat that this time. And in other elections between 1947-1959 they got around 34% which is about the same they are expected to get now.

Oops, i can't read. My bad, sorry y'all

[Astatine]

How likely is an Ampelkoaliton in Baden-Württemberg? Do you think the Greens would be at all eager to kick the CDU?

(As an anecdote, my grandmother, who lives in Freiburg and is usually a staunch SPD supporter, voted Green.)

The FDP candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke already stated that he's expecting Kretschmann to send him invitations to coalition negotiations. He seems open towards that option. Plus, Eisenmann was a bit hesitant when she was asked about the continuation of the Black-Green coalition.

Wouldn't exclude the possibility of a Green/SPD or Green/FDP coalition yet, tho.

[Astatine]

First trend results from Rosenthal (Hesse)!

Local List BLR 37.7 (28.5)
FDP 35.2 (25.7)
CDU 27.0 (45.8 )

Not representative at all.

[President Johnson]

How likely is an Ampelkoaliton in Baden-Württemberg? Do you think the Greens would be at all eager to kick the CDU?

(As an anecdote, my grandmother, who lives in Freiburg and is usually a staunch SPD supporter, voted Green.)

The FDP candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke already stated that he's expecting Kretschmann to send him invitations to coalition negotiations. He seems open towards that option. Plus, Eisenmann was a bit hesitant when she was asked about the continuation of the Black-Green coalition.

Wouldn't exclude the possibility of a Green/SPD or Green/FDP coalition yet, tho.

Greens and SPD are currently just one seat away from that. 72 seats are needed in the 143 member body, both are at 71 as of now. Greens and FDP are at 70. However, Kretschmann already said the coalition must be reliable and I'm not sure he wants to govern with exactly the number of seats needed. Coalitions with the CDU and SPD+FDP would have a 60% majority in the legislature.

At the same time, the traffic light coalition in RP has expanded its 51 seat majority to 54 or 55 (out of 101 seats).

[Astatine]

How likely is an Ampelkoaliton in Baden-Württemberg? Do you think the Greens would be at all eager to kick the CDU?

(As an anecdote, my grandmother, who lives in Freiburg and is usually a staunch SPD supporter, voted Green.)

The FDP candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke already stated that he's expecting Kretschmann to send him invitations to coalition negotiations. He seems open towards that option. Plus, Eisenmann was a bit hesitant when she was asked about the continuation of the Black-Green coalition.

Wouldn't exclude the possibility of a Green/SPD or Green/FDP coalition yet, tho.

Greens and SPD are currently just one seat away from that. 72 seats are needed in the 143 member body, both are at 71 as of now. Greens and FDP are at 70. However, Kretschmann already said the coalition must be reliable and I'm not sure he wants to govern with exactly the number of seats needed. Coalitions with the CDU and SPD+FDP would have a 60% majority in the legislature.

At the same time, the traffic light coalition in RP has expanded its 51 seat majority to 54 or 55 (out of 101 seats).

Due to the lackluster performance of the CDU, it seems likely that there will be overhang and compensatory seats, ZDF sees both Greens/SPD and Greens/FDP at 72 seats with 76 seats needed for a majority (and FDP ahead of SPD).

[Tender Branson]

FW @ 3% in BW and 6% (!) in RLP is 🥜.

Hopefully, this will lead to increased national support too in September, but I guess there’s not enough time to create a Germanywide infrastructure in half a year.

But who knows, they are still on the ballot everywhere and there are a lot of protest voters who don’t like the AfD ...

[urutzizu]

On ARD Red-Green also now have majority in BW, although Overhang and the weird districtwise (bezirk meaning here) compensation in BW is not regarded.

[Astatine]

Some results from Frankfurt/Main with 150/516 precincts reporting:

CDU: 21.1  (-3.0)
SPD: 17.7 (-6.1)
Greens: 23.3 (+8.0)
FDP: 8.2 (+0.7)
Left: 8.0 (+/- 0.0)
AfD: 9.4 (+0.5)

[Pick Up the Phone]

On ARD Red-Green also now have majority in BW, although Overhang and the weird districtwise (bezirk meaning here) compensation in BW is not regarded.

Seems as if the AfD could end up below 10% in both states. They are currently on track of losing 5% (1/3!) in BW - which would make them the clear losers of the evening.

Meanwhile, the results for the Greens in BW (and the SPD in RLP) are getting better and better.

[Astatine]

Seems as if the AfD could end up below 10% in both states. They are currently on track of losing 5% (1/3!) in BW - which would make them the clear losers of the evening.

Meanwhile, the results for the Greens in BW (and the SPD in RLP) are getting better and better.

If the current trend continue, the SPD might ever overperform in comparison to 2016 when they got 36.2 %.

[President Johnson]

Exit polls show Winfried Kretschmann with a nearly 80% approval rating/favorability. He's even approved by 89% of SPD and 81% of CDU voters. Even among CDU voters, he'd win head to head with 56% to 35% against Eisenmann. The guy is literally Emperor of Baden-Württemberg at this point. He actually reminds me of Phil Scott when compred to American politicians.

[Tender Branson]

Exit polls show Winfried Kretschmann with a nearly 80% approval rating/favorability. He's even approved by 89% of SPD and 81% of CDU voters. Even among CDU voters, he'd win head to head with 56% to 35% against Eisenmann. The guy is literally Emperor of Baden-Württemberg at this point. He actually reminds me of Phil Scott when compred to American politicians.

Wouldn’t a better comparison be an extremely popular Tom Wolf or Roy Cooper ?

[President Johnson]

Exit polls show Winfried Kretschmann with a nearly 80% approval rating/favorability. He's even approved by 89% of SPD and 81% of CDU voters. Even among CDU voters, he'd win head to head with 56% to 35% against Eisenmann. The guy is literally Emperor of Baden-Württemberg at this point. He actually reminds me of Phil Scott when compred to American politicians.

Wouldn’t a better comparison be an extremely popular Tom Wolf or Roy Cooper ?

I don't think so because BaWü is traditionally a CDU state and the Greens are not doing that well in federal elections. Like Scott or Baker, Kretschmann defies partisan gravitas here and became popular by governing as a moderate, especiallc compared to his party as a whole. And like Baker, he barely won his first election mainly because of an inept opponent.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Not surprising... but education matters. A lot.

Hauptschule (Lower Secondary Education; ISCED 2; nine years of schooling)
Realschule (Lower Secondary Education; ISCED 2; ten years of schooling)*
Abitur (Higher Secondary Education; ISCED 3/4; twelve/thirteen years of schooling)
Studium (Tertiary Education; ISCED 5/6; BAs, MAs, PhDs etc.)

---------

*U.S. high school diplomas are usually compared to the Realschule's school-leaving certificate (the 'Mittlere Reife') by German school authorities.

[Astatine]

Riggery!

[Astatine]

New Infratest numbers:

BW:
Greens 32.6
CDU 23.5
AfD 9.8
SPD 11.5
FDP 10.4

Majority for Green-Red (75/148)

RLP:
SPD 36.1
CDU 26.5
Greens 9.3
AfD 8.6
FDP 5.6
FW 5.3

Majority for Traffic light (56/101), Red-Green might become possible (50/101)

[President Johnson]

BW Update: Size of the Landtag is now 148 seats, and Greens + SPD would end up winning 75 seats. That's one more than needed for majority.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371202015121043465